POLLS AND OTHER NEWS

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** A tie ballgame: Major news organizations released three new national polls yesterday, and they all signaled the same thing: After the party conventions and VP picks, this presidential race is pretty much tied. The Washington Post/ABC poll had Obama up one point among registered voters (47%-46%). A CBS survey had McCain ahead by two (46%-44%). And CNN had the race deadlocked at 48%-48%. Tonight, our NBC/WSJ poll -- generally considered the gold standard of national surveys -- comes out at 6:30 pm ET on Nightly News and MSNBC.com. Will it show a similar result? The bad news for Team Obama is that this tied race is occurring in a pro-Democrat political environment, and skittish Democrats -- who haven’t won the White House since 1996 -- are going to wring their hands over any piece of bad news, which is never good for morale. The good news for them: In 2004, John Kerry found himself behind after the GOP convention by a significant margin, and he had to use three strong debate performances just to pull within striking distance. It doesn’t look like that will be the case for Obama and the Democrats this year.

*** What to watch for: The next thing to look for in polling is to see where in the battleground numbers shifted the most. Has Palin put the Republicans back in the game in the agricultural Midwest? Will these soft GOP states like Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri, and Montana start tilting back to the GOP? What about the soft toss-ups like Florida or Michigan? Will they match the national number or tilt slightly GOP (in Florida's case) and slightly Dem (in Michigan's case?). Of course, the quality of publicly available state polls is not good, which will make judging the battleground even more difficult. Still, to truly know what's in play and not, keep an eye on the candidate schedules.


*** Vetting Palin: Yesterday, nearly every news organization debunked the Palin claim that she told Congress “thanks but no thanks for that Bridge to Nowhere” -- a project McCain has railed against constantly on the campaign trail. (Not only did Palin support that bridge during her gubernatorial bid in 2006, but Congress essentially pulled the plug on it before Palin did, and she diverted the money for it to other projects.) Now comes a Washington Post investigative piece reporting that Palin billed state taxpayers “for 312 nights spent in her own home during her first 19 months in office, charging a ‘per diem’ allowance intended to cover meals and incidental expenses while traveling on state business.” The article also notes that husband Todd “has billed the state for expenses and a daily allowance for trips he makes on official business for his wife.” The danger of these back-to-back stories: Palin could get painted as just another politician. Where have we heard this before? Opponents of Obama -- both now and in the primary -- tried to paint him as just another politician. But like Obama, Palin doesn't look like a typical politician, and that could help deflect some of these charges against her. Then again, with just two months to go, many voters still don’t know Palin, and that could make these stories (combined with the Troopergate investigation) a bit more problematic since every new piece of information gets amplified.

OBAMA'S CAMPAIGN MANAGER--THE HUFFINGTON POST:

Sitting under a charcoal sketch of the Obama family that was donated by a supporter, Plouffe said that they weren’t concerned by the bump in poll numbers that McCain has experienced after the Republican convention and the announcement of Sarah Palin as his running mate.

“There’s a lot of hyperventilating about national polls,” Plouffe said, which wasn’t a surprise since both a CBS News poll and the Gallup daily tracking poll showed McCain taking the lead nationally in the presidential race. “When you look at battleground states, we feel very good about where we are.”

Plouffe argued that McCain has “jettisoned the idea” that this election is about experience with selection of first term governor Sarah Palin on the ticket. McCain is now trying to make the election about change, Plouffe said, and “that’s a debate we’re happy to have.”

Plouffe said the election would boil down to which campaign could appeal to undecided voters in battleground states and who could bring out the highest turnout numbers. “We have a huge ability to grow turnout,” he said. “We have a more credible path to 270 [electoral votes, the number it takes to win] than McCain does.”