Obama's Convention Bounce

FROM REAL CLEAR POLITICS AND FIVE-THIRTYEIGHT ELECTION PROJECTIONS

The Diageo/Hotline poll conducted Aug. 29-31 shows that Barack Obama now leads John McCain 48-39 percent, an increase from the 44-40 percent lead in the Aug. 18-24 survey.

The poll finds Obama enjoying much stronger support among independents, with a 42-33 percent lead. The mid-August survey found McCain with a slight edge among this group by 38-36 percent.

The Diageo/Hotline poll surveyed 805 registered voters and has a margin of +/-3.5 percent. It was conducted after both Obama's acceptance speech and the selection of Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate.

THERE'S MORE:

Tuesday, September 02
Race Poll Results Spread
National Gallup Tracking Obama 50, McCain 42 Obama +8

National Rasmussen Tracking Obama 51, McCain 45 Obama +6

National USA Today/Gallup* Obama 50, McCain 43 Obama +7

National Hotline/FD Obama 48, McCain 39 Obama +9

National CBS News Obama 48, McCain 40 Obama +8

Monday, September 01

National CNN Obama 49, McCain 48 Obama +1

A large number of national polls have come out within the past 24-48 hours, most of which had conducted a survey close enough to the beginning of the Democratic convention to provide for a direct comparison. These polls show Obama having gained between 2 and 8 points since before the convention began, or an average of 4.4 points. Although this is slightly below the average convention bounce of 6 points, it is a pretty reasonable result considering that the Republicans had named their VP candidate immediately following the Democratic convention, a circumstance which had never occurred before. Moreover, the internals of these polls show Obama gaining ground among Clinton supporters, a group of votes that John McCain is likely to have a difficult time getting back.

Still, it is imperative for Democrats not to get too giddy. A bounce is usually just a bounce, and the Republicans will have three nights of rebuttal tonight through Thursday to attempt to generate some momentum of their own. The Republicans rallied the base with the selection of Sarah Palin; having done so, they need to find messaging during their convention that will appeal to moderates and independents.