NBC'S POLITICAL DIRECTOR'S OBSERVATIONS-

BY CHUCK TODD

*** Losing the mo’: At the end of August, it appeared McCain had the momentum in the presidential race. And a month later? Well, just look at today’s rough day for McCain in the op-ed pages. EJ Dionne declares that the Arizona senator lost the month of September; Paul Krugman (normally left-leaning but hardly an Obama fan) writes that McCain “scares me” if the next president has to answer a 3:00 am phone call on the economy; Fareed Zakaria bluntly says that Palin isn’t qualified to be VP; and even McCain friend Bill Kristol admits that McCain “is on course to lose the presidential election.” So how does McCain get his groove back? Whenever the pressure's been on McCain to change the trajectory of the race, he's figured out a way -- so get ready for a wild week. We're guessing lots of stuff is going to get thrown on the wall to see what sticks. Kristol, perhaps the most listened to of the McCain backseat drivers, even suggests (among other things) playing the Jeremiah Wright card.

*** Do we have a winner? On Friday night, it wasn't clear who won the debate. For as many people who thought McCain won, there was a smart analyst who picked Obama. But three days later, it's McCain -- as we mention above -- who’s dealing with how-does-he-turn-things-around? stories, not Obama. And it's Obama who is receiving a poll bump. We're not fans of insta-debate polls, nor weekend tracking polls. But every single one of them shows movement in Obama’s direction. Could it be that voters were judging Friday night's debate in the is-he-ready prism? It's the most logical explanation for the Obama bump,

*** Four out of five experts agree…: Whatever happens Thursday, you'll know it's a good night for her if a viewer can easily ascertain an issue Palin appears to be an expert on. The campaign wants her to be the energy person, but they've actually done little to reinforce her credentials. She hasn't spent time at key energy symbols (oil rigs, nuclear plants etc.), nor has she spent time with energy reporters.