BY Matthew Dowd
Matthew Dowd has been a campaign strategist in races throughout the country. In 30 years, Dowd has worked for Democrats and Republicans, most recently serving as chief strategist for President George W. Bush in 2004.
Obama's Race to Lose; Pressure Points on Palin
September 30, 2008 8:53 AM
Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor
One debate down, two presidential debates and one vice presidential to go, so let's take a look at the landscape.
By nearly all accounts, Obama won the first debate, even though it wasn't overwhelming, but it will serve to give Obama a slight bump in the polls (which it already has) and solidify his single digit lead.
Since the debate, Obama is ahead pretty consistently by four to six points. And this lead is significant for a couple reasons.
First, as I have written previously, the equilibrium of this race seems to be Obama with a slight lead and this will soon begin to lock in. And with early voting starting soon in some states, every day Obama holds a lead means votes in the can.
Second, as best I can tell, no one running for president since 1976 who has held a consistent lead after the first debate has ever lost. Strange things can happen, but McCain will have to surprise many if he comes back at this point.
So what happens next?
All the pressure is on Sarah Palin for the vice presidential debate. She goes in with many voters concerned about her answers to media questions over the last week or so. A significant number of Americans do not believe she is qualified to be president. And concern and infighting is beginning to surface among Republicans about her performance.
In fact, many Republicans are saying the problem is that the McCain campaign needs to "let Palin be Palin". (Hmmm, I remember well many folks saying that about Bush after some mistakes in his campaigns, and thinking, well, sometimes we didn't want Bush to be Bush.)
This kind of statement by Republicans encourages me to add another rule to some rules I have come up with which are tell-tale signs a campaign is in trouble.
Rule One: When a campaign starts attacking the media, things aren't going well.
Rule Two: When a campaign says the polls are wrong, things aren't very good.
Rule Three: When a campaign says "the only poll that counts is the one on election day" usually means a campaign is about to lose.
Now we could probably add a new one: when partisans start saying let the candidate be the candidate, it means things are off course.
What will McCain and Palin do at this point? My guess is the campaign will encourage Palin to make some off the wall accusations at the debate in order to get under Biden's skin, and hope he makes a mistake by engaging her too passionately.
Or maybe McCain will fly to Afghanistan and look for Osama Bin Laden himself. You just never know.
At this point, this race is Obama's to lose, and absent a significant mistake it will be tough for McCain to win. McCain's destiny is no longer in his hands. Though in a strange election, strange things can happen.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
SARAH SIX-PACK
FROM ABC THE NOTE:
As the political world braces for Wednesday's Wall Street bailout vote in the U.S. Senate, Sarah Palin is stepping up her "Joe-Six Pack" pitch.
"It's time that normal Joe Six-Pack American is finally represented in the position of vice presidency, and I think that that's kind of taken some people off guard, and they're out of sorts, and they're ticked off about it," Palin said Tuesday on the Hugh Hewitt show. "But it's motivation for John McCain and I to work that much harder to make sure that our ticket is victorious, and we put government back on the side of the people of Joe Six-Pack like me."
Palin told Hewitt that her family is feeling the economic pinch and pointed to her husband's defined contribution retirement plan.
"Todd and I are looking at what's going on in the stock market, the relatively low number of investments that we have, looking at the hit that we're taking, probably $20,000 last week in his 401K plan that was hit," said Palin.
"I'm thinking geez," she continued, "the rest of America, they're facing the exact same thing that we are."
In Tuesday's installment of Palin's interview with CBS' Katie Couric, the Alaska governor was asked about a handful of hot-button social issues.
--On abortion, she reconfirmed that she favors a legal prohibition on abortion for 15-year old victims of rape and incest while saying that she does not favor jail time as a penalty for the abortion recipient.
--On the morning after pill, she said that she would not personally use that form of contraception while maintaining that her views were not a statement of McCain-Palin administration policy.
--On homosexuality, she said that she is "not going to judge Americans and the decisions that they make in their adult relationships" while describing her gay friend of 30 years as someone who "happens to have made a choice that isn't a choice that I have made."
Couric will have more with Palin starting on Wednesday when the McCain running mate joins her Democratic counterpart in answering questions about a "key Supreme Court decision" as well as her views on the separation of church and state.
Per a Monday story by Politico's Jonathan Martin, "after noting Roe vs. Wade, Palin was apparently unable to discuss any major court cases."
"There was no verbal fumbling as in last week's Couric interview . . . but rather silence," according to the Palin aide who spoke to Politico.
The Kicker:
"That little stinker, I guess he's called his girlfriend a couple of times, but can you believe he hasn't called his momma yet?"
--Sarah Palin to Hugh Hewitt on whether she or Todd has heard from deployed son Track Palin
As the political world braces for Wednesday's Wall Street bailout vote in the U.S. Senate, Sarah Palin is stepping up her "Joe-Six Pack" pitch.
"It's time that normal Joe Six-Pack American is finally represented in the position of vice presidency, and I think that that's kind of taken some people off guard, and they're out of sorts, and they're ticked off about it," Palin said Tuesday on the Hugh Hewitt show. "But it's motivation for John McCain and I to work that much harder to make sure that our ticket is victorious, and we put government back on the side of the people of Joe Six-Pack like me."
Palin told Hewitt that her family is feeling the economic pinch and pointed to her husband's defined contribution retirement plan.
"Todd and I are looking at what's going on in the stock market, the relatively low number of investments that we have, looking at the hit that we're taking, probably $20,000 last week in his 401K plan that was hit," said Palin.
"I'm thinking geez," she continued, "the rest of America, they're facing the exact same thing that we are."
In Tuesday's installment of Palin's interview with CBS' Katie Couric, the Alaska governor was asked about a handful of hot-button social issues.
--On abortion, she reconfirmed that she favors a legal prohibition on abortion for 15-year old victims of rape and incest while saying that she does not favor jail time as a penalty for the abortion recipient.
--On the morning after pill, she said that she would not personally use that form of contraception while maintaining that her views were not a statement of McCain-Palin administration policy.
--On homosexuality, she said that she is "not going to judge Americans and the decisions that they make in their adult relationships" while describing her gay friend of 30 years as someone who "happens to have made a choice that isn't a choice that I have made."
Couric will have more with Palin starting on Wednesday when the McCain running mate joins her Democratic counterpart in answering questions about a "key Supreme Court decision" as well as her views on the separation of church and state.
Per a Monday story by Politico's Jonathan Martin, "after noting Roe vs. Wade, Palin was apparently unable to discuss any major court cases."
"There was no verbal fumbling as in last week's Couric interview . . . but rather silence," according to the Palin aide who spoke to Politico.
The Kicker:
"That little stinker, I guess he's called his girlfriend a couple of times, but can you believe he hasn't called his momma yet?"
--Sarah Palin to Hugh Hewitt on whether she or Todd has heard from deployed son Track Palin
Ohio Early Voting Starts Today
From Chuck Todd:
*** A Buckeye bonanza for Dems? Early voting begins today in the battleground of Ohio, as well as in Nebraska. Lost in the news of yesterday’s bailout failure and the plummeting Dow was a court decision in Ohio that could have big implications in the presidential race. In a 4-3 decision, the Ohio Supreme Court upheld same-day voter registration and absentee ballot casting -- a ruling that could help Obama in the state. "The outcome of the court battles is likely to benefit Democrats in a state that narrowly awarded President Bush re-election in 2004," the AP writes. "Obama's campaign has organized car pools beginning Tuesday from college campuses to early voting sites. The Northeast Ohio Coalition for the Homeless is ferrying voters from homeless shelters to polling sites in the Cleveland area. Other organizations that seek to increase poor and minority participation in elections are transporting voters from low-income neighborhoods. The targeted voters have all traditionally had a harder time getting registered, and then getting to polling places on Election Day. Thanks to Monday's court decisions, these Democratic-leaning voters can do it all at once."
*** A Buckeye bonanza for Dems? Early voting begins today in the battleground of Ohio, as well as in Nebraska. Lost in the news of yesterday’s bailout failure and the plummeting Dow was a court decision in Ohio that could have big implications in the presidential race. In a 4-3 decision, the Ohio Supreme Court upheld same-day voter registration and absentee ballot casting -- a ruling that could help Obama in the state. "The outcome of the court battles is likely to benefit Democrats in a state that narrowly awarded President Bush re-election in 2004," the AP writes. "Obama's campaign has organized car pools beginning Tuesday from college campuses to early voting sites. The Northeast Ohio Coalition for the Homeless is ferrying voters from homeless shelters to polling sites in the Cleveland area. Other organizations that seek to increase poor and minority participation in elections are transporting voters from low-income neighborhoods. The targeted voters have all traditionally had a harder time getting registered, and then getting to polling places on Election Day. Thanks to Monday's court decisions, these Democratic-leaning voters can do it all at once."
Monday, September 29, 2008
NBC'S POLITICAL DIRECTOR'S OBSERVATIONS-
BY CHUCK TODD
*** Losing the mo’: At the end of August, it appeared McCain had the momentum in the presidential race. And a month later? Well, just look at today’s rough day for McCain in the op-ed pages. EJ Dionne declares that the Arizona senator lost the month of September; Paul Krugman (normally left-leaning but hardly an Obama fan) writes that McCain “scares me” if the next president has to answer a 3:00 am phone call on the economy; Fareed Zakaria bluntly says that Palin isn’t qualified to be VP; and even McCain friend Bill Kristol admits that McCain “is on course to lose the presidential election.” So how does McCain get his groove back? Whenever the pressure's been on McCain to change the trajectory of the race, he's figured out a way -- so get ready for a wild week. We're guessing lots of stuff is going to get thrown on the wall to see what sticks. Kristol, perhaps the most listened to of the McCain backseat drivers, even suggests (among other things) playing the Jeremiah Wright card.
*** Do we have a winner? On Friday night, it wasn't clear who won the debate. For as many people who thought McCain won, there was a smart analyst who picked Obama. But three days later, it's McCain -- as we mention above -- who’s dealing with how-does-he-turn-things-around? stories, not Obama. And it's Obama who is receiving a poll bump. We're not fans of insta-debate polls, nor weekend tracking polls. But every single one of them shows movement in Obama’s direction. Could it be that voters were judging Friday night's debate in the is-he-ready prism? It's the most logical explanation for the Obama bump,
*** Four out of five experts agree…: Whatever happens Thursday, you'll know it's a good night for her if a viewer can easily ascertain an issue Palin appears to be an expert on. The campaign wants her to be the energy person, but they've actually done little to reinforce her credentials. She hasn't spent time at key energy symbols (oil rigs, nuclear plants etc.), nor has she spent time with energy reporters.
*** Losing the mo’: At the end of August, it appeared McCain had the momentum in the presidential race. And a month later? Well, just look at today’s rough day for McCain in the op-ed pages. EJ Dionne declares that the Arizona senator lost the month of September; Paul Krugman (normally left-leaning but hardly an Obama fan) writes that McCain “scares me” if the next president has to answer a 3:00 am phone call on the economy; Fareed Zakaria bluntly says that Palin isn’t qualified to be VP; and even McCain friend Bill Kristol admits that McCain “is on course to lose the presidential election.” So how does McCain get his groove back? Whenever the pressure's been on McCain to change the trajectory of the race, he's figured out a way -- so get ready for a wild week. We're guessing lots of stuff is going to get thrown on the wall to see what sticks. Kristol, perhaps the most listened to of the McCain backseat drivers, even suggests (among other things) playing the Jeremiah Wright card.
*** Do we have a winner? On Friday night, it wasn't clear who won the debate. For as many people who thought McCain won, there was a smart analyst who picked Obama. But three days later, it's McCain -- as we mention above -- who’s dealing with how-does-he-turn-things-around? stories, not Obama. And it's Obama who is receiving a poll bump. We're not fans of insta-debate polls, nor weekend tracking polls. But every single one of them shows movement in Obama’s direction. Could it be that voters were judging Friday night's debate in the is-he-ready prism? It's the most logical explanation for the Obama bump,
*** Four out of five experts agree…: Whatever happens Thursday, you'll know it's a good night for her if a viewer can easily ascertain an issue Palin appears to be an expert on. The campaign wants her to be the energy person, but they've actually done little to reinforce her credentials. She hasn't spent time at key energy symbols (oil rigs, nuclear plants etc.), nor has she spent time with energy reporters.
Sunday, September 28, 2008
ELECTION PROJECTIONS DONE RIGHT
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Today's Polls, 9/28 BY NATE SILVER of FiveThirtyEight
Election Projections Done Right
Here's the long and short of it for John McCain: Barack Obama has as large a lead in the election as he's held all year. But there is much less time left on the clock than there was during other Obama periods of strength, such as in February, mid-June or immediately following the Democratic convention. This is a very difficult combination of circumstances for him.
On the strength of a set of national tracking polls that each show Obama at or near his high-water mark all year, our model projects that he would win an election hold today by 4.2 points. It discounts this lead slightly to a projected margin of 3.3 points on November 4, as most races tend to tighten as we approach election day.
This lead might not sound like that much, but it's fairly significant: we've been through two conventions and one debate, voters have dug their heels in, and Obama's position in the Electoral College is extremely robust. Trimming away a 4-5 point lead isn't that difficult over the summer months -- in fact, McCain accomplished exactly that in July and August -- but it's a steeper hill to climb after Labor Day. And if anything, our projection may be lowballing Obama slightly, as the aforementioned national tracking data (which incorporates one day of post-debate interviewing) has Obama's lead in the range of 5-8 points; the model will need Obama to hold those numbers for another day or two before it catches up to them.
Democrats have no reason to be complacent. Although the situation looks dramatically better for them than it did two weeks ago, so too have the stakes of the election increased. The next president will face perhaps the most challenging set of circumstances of any since Franklin Roosevelt, and could potentially have nearly as much impact on the future direction of the country. Obama could very easily lose, and even if he wins, odds are that there will be at least one more swing back toward McCain in the intervening 37 days. Nevertheless, as Isaac Chotiner suggests, I believe that the national punditry is understanding the difficulty of the position that McCain finds himself in.
Today's Polls, 9/28 BY NATE SILVER of FiveThirtyEight
Election Projections Done Right
Here's the long and short of it for John McCain: Barack Obama has as large a lead in the election as he's held all year. But there is much less time left on the clock than there was during other Obama periods of strength, such as in February, mid-June or immediately following the Democratic convention. This is a very difficult combination of circumstances for him.
On the strength of a set of national tracking polls that each show Obama at or near his high-water mark all year, our model projects that he would win an election hold today by 4.2 points. It discounts this lead slightly to a projected margin of 3.3 points on November 4, as most races tend to tighten as we approach election day.
This lead might not sound like that much, but it's fairly significant: we've been through two conventions and one debate, voters have dug their heels in, and Obama's position in the Electoral College is extremely robust. Trimming away a 4-5 point lead isn't that difficult over the summer months -- in fact, McCain accomplished exactly that in July and August -- but it's a steeper hill to climb after Labor Day. And if anything, our projection may be lowballing Obama slightly, as the aforementioned national tracking data (which incorporates one day of post-debate interviewing) has Obama's lead in the range of 5-8 points; the model will need Obama to hold those numbers for another day or two before it catches up to them.
Democrats have no reason to be complacent. Although the situation looks dramatically better for them than it did two weeks ago, so too have the stakes of the election increased. The next president will face perhaps the most challenging set of circumstances of any since Franklin Roosevelt, and could potentially have nearly as much impact on the future direction of the country. Obama could very easily lose, and even if he wins, odds are that there will be at least one more swing back toward McCain in the intervening 37 days. Nevertheless, as Isaac Chotiner suggests, I believe that the national punditry is understanding the difficulty of the position that McCain finds himself in.
From Newsweek
Palin's "Gibberish"
28 Sep 2008 04:13 pm
Like any other rational person concerned about the state of the world and the enormous dangers ahead, Fareed Zakaria has one word to describe Sarah Palin's attempts to say anything coherent about the country and world she is asking to be president of (if McCain were to expire). Bottom line:
"Can we now admit the obvious? Sarah Palin is utterly unqualified to be vice president. She is a feisty, charismatic politician who has done some good things in Alaska. But she has never spent a day thinking about any important national or international issue, and this is a hell of a time to start...
In these times, for John McCain to have chosen this person to be his running mate is fundamentally irresponsible. McCain says that he always puts country first. In this important case, it is simply not true."
28 Sep 2008 04:13 pm
Like any other rational person concerned about the state of the world and the enormous dangers ahead, Fareed Zakaria has one word to describe Sarah Palin's attempts to say anything coherent about the country and world she is asking to be president of (if McCain were to expire). Bottom line:
"Can we now admit the obvious? Sarah Palin is utterly unqualified to be vice president. She is a feisty, charismatic politician who has done some good things in Alaska. But she has never spent a day thinking about any important national or international issue, and this is a hell of a time to start...
In these times, for John McCain to have chosen this person to be his running mate is fundamentally irresponsible. McCain says that he always puts country first. In this important case, it is simply not true."
Friday, September 26, 2008
OBAMA ON FACE THE NATION SUNDAY
Obama on 'Face the Nation'
Obama is appearing on "Face the Nation" Sunday, CBS announces (11:30 am Sunday, channel 8)
Obama is appearing on "Face the Nation" Sunday, CBS announces (11:30 am Sunday, channel 8)
State Polls Update
RealClearPolitics
September 26, 2008
State Polls Update
Pennsylvania - Morning Call
Obama 47
McCain 43
Virginia - Rasmussen
Obama 50
McCain 45
New York - SurveyUSA
Obama 57
McCain 38
Missouri - SurveyUSA
McCain 48
Obama 46
Oregon - Research2000
Obama 53
McCain 39
Montana - Research2000
McCain 52
Obama 39
September 26, 2008
State Polls Update
Pennsylvania - Morning Call
Obama 47
McCain 43
Virginia - Rasmussen
Obama 50
McCain 45
New York - SurveyUSA
Obama 57
McCain 38
Missouri - SurveyUSA
McCain 48
Obama 46
Oregon - Research2000
Obama 53
McCain 39
Montana - Research2000
McCain 52
Obama 39
McCain camp raising town halls again as pressure builds
McCain camp raising town halls again as pressure builds
In what could be groundwork for the possibility that they have to skip tomorrow's debate, both John McCain and his top aide used similar rhetoric tonight to downplay the importance of the first presidential forum.
If Barack Obama had agreed to McCain's summer proposal to do joint town halls, the candidate and Steve Schmidt said, this would only be one more of many sessions featuring the two major party nominees.
"I understand that there is a lot of attention on this but I also wish Senator Obama had agreed to ten or more town hall meetings that I had asked him to attend with me," McCain told ABC's Charlie Gibson when asked in an interview broadcast on World News Tonight whether there would be a debate Friday in Mississippi as planned. "Wouldn't be quite that much urgency if he agreed to do that, instead he refused to do it."
Talking to the campaign pool reporter later, Schmidt said McCain hoped to make it to Oxford before shifting the conversation.
"He had actually hoped this would be the 11th debate of the campaign, not the first," Schmidt said. "He's very disappointed in Sen. Obama about that because this could have been the 11th debate. Sen. Obama said he would debate anywhere, anyplace, anytime. He refused to do that."
McCain's campaign recognizes the danger in skipping a long-agreed-to debate when the host, debate commission and their opponent is going forward as planned. The rhetoric tonight from McCain and Schmidt reflects a search for some measure of political cover, something that can muddy the waters.
In what could be groundwork for the possibility that they have to skip tomorrow's debate, both John McCain and his top aide used similar rhetoric tonight to downplay the importance of the first presidential forum.
If Barack Obama had agreed to McCain's summer proposal to do joint town halls, the candidate and Steve Schmidt said, this would only be one more of many sessions featuring the two major party nominees.
"I understand that there is a lot of attention on this but I also wish Senator Obama had agreed to ten or more town hall meetings that I had asked him to attend with me," McCain told ABC's Charlie Gibson when asked in an interview broadcast on World News Tonight whether there would be a debate Friday in Mississippi as planned. "Wouldn't be quite that much urgency if he agreed to do that, instead he refused to do it."
Talking to the campaign pool reporter later, Schmidt said McCain hoped to make it to Oxford before shifting the conversation.
"He had actually hoped this would be the 11th debate of the campaign, not the first," Schmidt said. "He's very disappointed in Sen. Obama about that because this could have been the 11th debate. Sen. Obama said he would debate anywhere, anyplace, anytime. He refused to do that."
McCain's campaign recognizes the danger in skipping a long-agreed-to debate when the host, debate commission and their opponent is going forward as planned. The rhetoric tonight from McCain and Schmidt reflects a search for some measure of political cover, something that can muddy the waters.
INSIGHT INTO BAIL-OUT
ABC-THE NOTE:
Some gambles go bust: John McCain's bold decision to head to Washington now jeopardizes both the critical bailout bill and the crucial first presidential debate, as Republican objections create a political thicket for the GOP nominee, ABC News' senior political reporter Rick Klein writes in Friday's Note, from Oxford, Miss. Barack Obama will be there regardless -- even if he's the only candidate on stage.
OXFORD, Miss. -- Sen. John McCain may or may not have broken the bailout bill -- and surely he didn't do so all by himself.
But he owns it now.
In the battle over perceptions, it really is this simple: There was a deal before McCain came back to Washington. There was not a deal by the time the evening ended. And now there might not be a bill -- or a first presidential debate Friday in Mississippi.
Holding that very heavy bag are McCain and his GOP colleagues in Congress. Steve Schmidt gets his wish: McCain is in the middle of the action -- amid friendly fire, political gamesmanship, competing loyalties, reelection fights, and a White House with no juice left.
Oh yes, the debate.
We know that at least half of this strange non-team that saw the bailout bill go from done deal to just plain done Thursday at the White House will be making the trip to Ole Miss.
Sen. Barack Obama's A team is already in Oxford, Miss., for a debate that would be fraught with symbolism and historical significance even if its very existence wasn't still in doubt.
ABC's George Stephanopoulos: "If McCain fails to show up, officials are mulling turning the first presidential debate into a town hall meeting where the Democratic presidential candidate takes questions from the audience and from the debate moderator PBS's Jim Lehrer."
Some gambles go bust: John McCain's bold decision to head to Washington now jeopardizes both the critical bailout bill and the crucial first presidential debate, as Republican objections create a political thicket for the GOP nominee, ABC News' senior political reporter Rick Klein writes in Friday's Note, from Oxford, Miss. Barack Obama will be there regardless -- even if he's the only candidate on stage.
OXFORD, Miss. -- Sen. John McCain may or may not have broken the bailout bill -- and surely he didn't do so all by himself.
But he owns it now.
In the battle over perceptions, it really is this simple: There was a deal before McCain came back to Washington. There was not a deal by the time the evening ended. And now there might not be a bill -- or a first presidential debate Friday in Mississippi.
Holding that very heavy bag are McCain and his GOP colleagues in Congress. Steve Schmidt gets his wish: McCain is in the middle of the action -- amid friendly fire, political gamesmanship, competing loyalties, reelection fights, and a White House with no juice left.
Oh yes, the debate.
We know that at least half of this strange non-team that saw the bailout bill go from done deal to just plain done Thursday at the White House will be making the trip to Ole Miss.
Sen. Barack Obama's A team is already in Oxford, Miss., for a debate that would be fraught with symbolism and historical significance even if its very existence wasn't still in doubt.
ABC's George Stephanopoulos: "If McCain fails to show up, officials are mulling turning the first presidential debate into a town hall meeting where the Democratic presidential candidate takes questions from the audience and from the debate moderator PBS's Jim Lehrer."
Thursday, September 25, 2008
OXFORD, MISSISSIPPI
If Obama does have a townhall for 90-minutes, as indicated in this article, maybe C-SPAN will carry it--they cover live campaign events all the time and then next time McCain speaks, cover him.
A community waits, hopes
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
OXFORD, Miss. -- The atmosphere on the Ole Miss campus is one of enthusiasm -- and a bit of anxiety -- for a debate a state has hoped and planned for for a year and a half, since the school applied to have it.
Republican Gov. Haley Barbour today called for the debate to go on. The state newspaper was filled with editorials and op-eds urging McCain to show up.
The Republican nominee may have thrown a wrench into the plans, but in the debate hall here, workers are drilling the final screws into the debate set; lights are being checked; podiums are being measured; the last of the set's panels are being put up and wires being weaved. Outside, security checkpoints are in place, network TV camera stands are built and set. (And never mind those hotel reservations and flight plans.)
"The debate will go on," University of Mississippi Vice Chancellor Gloria Kellum told NBC's local affiliate, adding, "We've spent two years working on this."
Advance teams from both campaigns have completed walk throughs, the local affiliate reported citing university officials, adding that if McCain doesn't show, there will be a 90-minute town hall with Obama taking questions from the audience.
In this proud town, on this university campus, residents, students and school officials want the debate to go on. And everything's in place.
McCain, tonight, told NBC's Brian Williams on Nightly News he is "hopeful" he will be at the debate.
An entire town and state sure hopes so.
A community waits, hopes
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
OXFORD, Miss. -- The atmosphere on the Ole Miss campus is one of enthusiasm -- and a bit of anxiety -- for a debate a state has hoped and planned for for a year and a half, since the school applied to have it.
Republican Gov. Haley Barbour today called for the debate to go on. The state newspaper was filled with editorials and op-eds urging McCain to show up.
The Republican nominee may have thrown a wrench into the plans, but in the debate hall here, workers are drilling the final screws into the debate set; lights are being checked; podiums are being measured; the last of the set's panels are being put up and wires being weaved. Outside, security checkpoints are in place, network TV camera stands are built and set. (And never mind those hotel reservations and flight plans.)
"The debate will go on," University of Mississippi Vice Chancellor Gloria Kellum told NBC's local affiliate, adding, "We've spent two years working on this."
Advance teams from both campaigns have completed walk throughs, the local affiliate reported citing university officials, adding that if McCain doesn't show, there will be a 90-minute town hall with Obama taking questions from the audience.
In this proud town, on this university campus, residents, students and school officials want the debate to go on. And everything's in place.
McCain, tonight, told NBC's Brian Williams on Nightly News he is "hopeful" he will be at the debate.
An entire town and state sure hopes so.
CBS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL
Politics up to the Minuteby Mark Halperin | Thursday, September 25, 2008
POLL: OBAMA UP
Thursday, September 25th, 2008
Latest New York Times/CBS News poll:
Obama 47, McCain 42
Dates conducted: September 21-24.
POLL: OBAMA UP
Thursday, September 25th, 2008
Latest New York Times/CBS News poll:
Obama 47, McCain 42
Dates conducted: September 21-24.
McCain's Day in DC
McCain's day in D.C. by Ben Smith (The Politico)
As they meet, a quick thought about McCain's gambit.
There's been a lot of discussion of whether it's brilliant or suicidal, whether his move to come off the trail and go to Washington will save his campaign or end it.
But I'm not sure that's the right framework. The move strikes me as a modest success, and it's best considered against the alternative. Had McCain not abandoned ship yesterday, the news from his campaign would have been twofold: his campaign manager's ties to Freddie Mac, which the campaign hasn't been able to convincingly deny; and his running mate's truly unsteady interview with Katie Couric. (The fact that McCain also sat down with Couric yesterday suggests his campaign knew it had to counterbalance that interview.)
Meanwhile, the candidate would have simply been swept along with President Bush's bailout, leaving no mark of his own on it, and saying nothing about the economy.
Now he's made himself a player, appeared as a leader, and shown he cares about the economy, even if his attempt to take credit for doing anything is doubtful and contested. And he's spent far less time talking about Davis and Palin.
That doesn't mean he "wins the week" or has vastly changed the narrative. But it may be better than the alternative.
As they meet, a quick thought about McCain's gambit.
There's been a lot of discussion of whether it's brilliant or suicidal, whether his move to come off the trail and go to Washington will save his campaign or end it.
But I'm not sure that's the right framework. The move strikes me as a modest success, and it's best considered against the alternative. Had McCain not abandoned ship yesterday, the news from his campaign would have been twofold: his campaign manager's ties to Freddie Mac, which the campaign hasn't been able to convincingly deny; and his running mate's truly unsteady interview with Katie Couric. (The fact that McCain also sat down with Couric yesterday suggests his campaign knew it had to counterbalance that interview.)
Meanwhile, the candidate would have simply been swept along with President Bush's bailout, leaving no mark of his own on it, and saying nothing about the economy.
Now he's made himself a player, appeared as a leader, and shown he cares about the economy, even if his attempt to take credit for doing anything is doubtful and contested. And he's spent far less time talking about Davis and Palin.
That doesn't mean he "wins the week" or has vastly changed the narrative. But it may be better than the alternative.
OBAMA'S OWN TOWNHALL?
If McCain doesn't show and Obama has a townhall, would the networks, cable shows carry it? If so, how great would that be? Or would they have to give McCain equal time in a similar format (not so great). Or is it's McCain's loss, he didn't show so no equal time and Obama has it to himself? Please continue reading.
Obama Will Make Debate A Townhall If McCain Doesn't Show, Source Says
September 25, 2008 11:45 AM
Barack Obama is committed to hosting a public, televised event Friday night in Mississippi even if John McCain does not show up, a source close to the Obama campaign tells the Huffington Post.
The Senator, the source says, is willing to make the scheduled debate a townhall meeting, a one-on-one interview with NewsHour's Jim Lehrer, or the combination of the two in McCain's absence.
Such a course of action could make life incredibly difficult for McCain, who has called for the suspension of the debate in light of the current economic crisis. Should he stay in Washington D.C. -- if a bailout if not completed by then -- and let Obama alone reach tens-of-millions of television viewers?
Obama Will Make Debate A Townhall If McCain Doesn't Show, Source Says
September 25, 2008 11:45 AM
Barack Obama is committed to hosting a public, televised event Friday night in Mississippi even if John McCain does not show up, a source close to the Obama campaign tells the Huffington Post.
The Senator, the source says, is willing to make the scheduled debate a townhall meeting, a one-on-one interview with NewsHour's Jim Lehrer, or the combination of the two in McCain's absence.
Such a course of action could make life incredibly difficult for McCain, who has called for the suspension of the debate in light of the current economic crisis. Should he stay in Washington D.C. -- if a bailout if not completed by then -- and let Obama alone reach tens-of-millions of television viewers?
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Marist Battleground Polls
Politics up to the Minute
by Mark Halperin | Wednesday, September 24, 2008
First-in-the-Nation Numbers +
Wednesday, September 24th, 2008
From the Marist Poll, among likely voters:
Iowa: Obama 51, McCain 41
Sept. 18-21; Error margin 4.5 points
New Hampshire: Obama 51, McCain 45
Sept 17-21; error margin 4 points
Michigan: Obama 52, McCain 43
Sept. 16-17; error margin 4 points
Ohio: Obama 47, McCain 45
Sept. 11-15; error margin 4.5 points
Pennsylvania: Obama 49, McCain 44
Sept. 11-15; error margin 4.5 points
by Mark Halperin | Wednesday, September 24, 2008
First-in-the-Nation Numbers +
Wednesday, September 24th, 2008
From the Marist Poll, among likely voters:
Iowa: Obama 51, McCain 41
Sept. 18-21; Error margin 4.5 points
New Hampshire: Obama 51, McCain 45
Sept 17-21; error margin 4 points
Michigan: Obama 52, McCain 43
Sept. 16-17; error margin 4 points
Ohio: Obama 47, McCain 45
Sept. 11-15; error margin 4.5 points
Pennsylvania: Obama 49, McCain 44
Sept. 11-15; error margin 4.5 points
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
WASHINGTON POST/ABC NEWS POLL!!!!!!!!!!
Economic Fears Give Obama Clear Lead Over McCain in Poll
By Dan Balz and Jon Cohen
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, September 24, 2008; A01
Turmoil in the financial industry and growing pessimism about the economy have altered the shape of the presidential race, giving Democratic nominee Barack Obama the first clear lead of the general-election campaign over Republican John McCain, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News national poll.
Just 9 percent of those surveyed rated the economy as good or excellent, the first time that number has been in single digits since the days just before the 1992 election. Just 14 percent said the country is heading in the right direction, equaling the record low on that question in polls dating back to 1973.
More voters trust Obama to deal with the economy, and he currently has a big edge as the candidate who is more in tune with the economic problems Americans now face. He also has a double-digit advantage on handling the current problems on Wall Street, and as a result, there has been a rise in his overall support. The poll found that, among likely voters, Obama now leads McCain by 52 percent to 43 percent. Two weeks ago, in the days immediately following the Republican National Convention, the race was essentially even, with McCain at 49 percent and Obama at 47 percent.
As a point of comparison, neither of the last two Democratic nominees -- John F. Kerry in 2004 or Al Gore in 2000 -- recorded support above 50 percent in a pre-election poll by the Post and ABC News.
Last week's near-meltdown in the financial markets and the subsequent debate in Washington over a proposed government bailout of troubled financial institutions have made the economy even more important in the minds of voters. Fully 50 percent called the economy and jobs the single most important issue that will determine their vote, up from 37 percent two weeks ago. In contrast, just 9 percent cited the Iraq war as their most important issue, its lowest of the campaign.
But voters are cool toward the administration's initial efforts to deal with the current crisis. Forty-seven percent said they approve of the steps taken by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to stabilize the financial markets, while 42 percent said they disapprove.
Anxiety about the economic situation is widespread. Just over half of the poll respondents -- 52 percent -- believe the economy has moved into a serious long-term decline. Eight in 10 are concerned about the overall direction of the economy, nearly three-quarters worry about the shocks to the stock market, and six in 10 are apprehensive about their own family finances.
Two weeks ago, McCain held a substantial advantage among white voters, including newfound strength with white women. In the face of bad economic news, the two candidates now run about evenly among white women, and Obama has narrowed the overall gap among white voters to five percentage points.
Much of the movement has come among college-educated whites. Whites without college degrees favor McCain by 17 points, while those with college degrees support Obama by 9 points. No Democrat has carried white, college-educated voters in presidential elections dating back to 1980, but they were a key part of Obama's coalition in the primaries.
The political climate is rapidly changing along with the twists and turns on Wall Street, and it remains unclear whether recent shifts in public opinion will fundamentally alter the highly competitive battle between McCain and Obama. About two in 10 voters are either undecided or remain "movable" and open to veering to another candidate. Nevertheless, the close relationship between voters' focus on the economy and their overall support for the Democratic nominee has boosted Obama.
Among white voters, economic anxiety translates into greater support for Obama. He is favored by 54 percent of whites who said they are concerned about the direction of the economy, but by just 10 percent of those who are less worried.
The survey also found that the strong initial public reaction to Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, McCain's running mate, has cooled somewhat. Overall, her unfavorable rating has gone up by 10 points in the past two weeks, from 28 percent to 38 percent.
She remains broadly popular -- 52 percent of voters view her positively -- but there have been some notable declines. Over the past two weeks, the percentage of independents with favorable views of Palin dropped from 60 percent to 48 percent. Among independent women, the decline was particularly sharp, going from 65 percent to 43 percent. Her favorable rating among whites without college degrees remained largely steady, but among those with college degrees, it dropped nearly 20 percentage points.
The survey also showed some backsliding in enthusiasm among McCain supporters. Overall, most supporters of each presidential candidate said they are enthusiastic about their choice, but 62 percent of Obama supporters said they are "very enthusiastic," compared with 34 percent of McCain's supporters. Coming out of the GOP convention, nearly half of those backing McCain said they did so fervently.
Among Republicans, conservatives and white evangelical Protestants, strong enthusiasm for McCain's candidacy has dropped by double digits.
The survey, conducted Friday through Monday, included telephone interviews with a random national sample of 1,082 adults, including 916 registered voters. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus three percentage points; it is four points for the sample of 780 likely voters.
Overall, Obama and McCain are tied among men in the new poll, while Obama has opened up a sizable lead among women. The candidates divide white voters, 50 percent for McCain to 45 percent for Obama, while Obama has an overwhelming advantage among African Americans, 96 percent to 3 percent.
Independents, key swing voters, now break for Obama, 53 percent to 39 percent, reversing a small lead for McCain after the Republican convention. McCain is the choice of 86 percent of Republicans, while about as many Democrats, 88 percent, back Obama.
In the new poll, voters once again gave Obama higher marks than McCain when it comes to dealing with the economy, 53 percent to 39 percent. Two weeks ago, Obama's edge on the question was a narrow five points, his lowest of the campaign. Among independents, Obama's advantage on the economy -- now 21 points -- is greater than at any point in the campaign.
McCain's advantages on national security issues have also been blunted. Two weeks ago, when those surveyed were asked who they trusted to deal with a major unexpected crisis, McCain led 54 percent to 37 percent. That lead is gone.
Similarly, McCain's once-sizable advantage in dealing with the battle against terrorism has all but disappeared. There were also big shifts toward Obama on handling Iraq and international affairs more broadly.
The first presidential debate, set for Friday evening, is slated to focus on foreign policy and national security, but economic issues seem likely to be included, given the developments on Wall Street. The debate appears poised to draw record levels of attention, as interest in the election has been sky high and continues to grow. Almost all voters are tuned in, and 55 percent are following "very closely," higher than at this time in 2004 and more than double the percentage so engaged in 2000.
A substantial hurdle for Obama is the widespread public skepticism about whether he would make a good commander in chief. On that question, he has made no significant headway in allaying voters' concerns. They remain evenly divided -- 48 percent said he would be effective in that role, 47 percent said he would not. Nearly three-quarters said McCain would manage the military well, and as many said he has the knowledge of world affairs to serve effectively.
Still, the candidates are rated about equally on the question of who is the stronger leader.
In the aftermath of the national conventions and the surprise pick of Palin, McCain had narrowed the gap with Obama on who is more likely to change Washington. In the new survey, Obama has reestablished his credentials on that front. He also now holds a double-digit lead as the more honest and trustworthy candidate, flipping what had been a slight McCain edge two weeks ago.
Obama has also cemented a clear edge among voters prioritizing the economy, a growing group. Among "economy voters," he now leads McCain by nearly 2 to 1. McCain holds advantages among voters prioritizing a range of concerns that rank lower on the issues list, making it harder for him to find ways to drive the agenda of the campaign into favorable territory.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company
By Dan Balz and Jon Cohen
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, September 24, 2008; A01
Turmoil in the financial industry and growing pessimism about the economy have altered the shape of the presidential race, giving Democratic nominee Barack Obama the first clear lead of the general-election campaign over Republican John McCain, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News national poll.
Just 9 percent of those surveyed rated the economy as good or excellent, the first time that number has been in single digits since the days just before the 1992 election. Just 14 percent said the country is heading in the right direction, equaling the record low on that question in polls dating back to 1973.
More voters trust Obama to deal with the economy, and he currently has a big edge as the candidate who is more in tune with the economic problems Americans now face. He also has a double-digit advantage on handling the current problems on Wall Street, and as a result, there has been a rise in his overall support. The poll found that, among likely voters, Obama now leads McCain by 52 percent to 43 percent. Two weeks ago, in the days immediately following the Republican National Convention, the race was essentially even, with McCain at 49 percent and Obama at 47 percent.
As a point of comparison, neither of the last two Democratic nominees -- John F. Kerry in 2004 or Al Gore in 2000 -- recorded support above 50 percent in a pre-election poll by the Post and ABC News.
Last week's near-meltdown in the financial markets and the subsequent debate in Washington over a proposed government bailout of troubled financial institutions have made the economy even more important in the minds of voters. Fully 50 percent called the economy and jobs the single most important issue that will determine their vote, up from 37 percent two weeks ago. In contrast, just 9 percent cited the Iraq war as their most important issue, its lowest of the campaign.
But voters are cool toward the administration's initial efforts to deal with the current crisis. Forty-seven percent said they approve of the steps taken by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve to stabilize the financial markets, while 42 percent said they disapprove.
Anxiety about the economic situation is widespread. Just over half of the poll respondents -- 52 percent -- believe the economy has moved into a serious long-term decline. Eight in 10 are concerned about the overall direction of the economy, nearly three-quarters worry about the shocks to the stock market, and six in 10 are apprehensive about their own family finances.
Two weeks ago, McCain held a substantial advantage among white voters, including newfound strength with white women. In the face of bad economic news, the two candidates now run about evenly among white women, and Obama has narrowed the overall gap among white voters to five percentage points.
Much of the movement has come among college-educated whites. Whites without college degrees favor McCain by 17 points, while those with college degrees support Obama by 9 points. No Democrat has carried white, college-educated voters in presidential elections dating back to 1980, but they were a key part of Obama's coalition in the primaries.
The political climate is rapidly changing along with the twists and turns on Wall Street, and it remains unclear whether recent shifts in public opinion will fundamentally alter the highly competitive battle between McCain and Obama. About two in 10 voters are either undecided or remain "movable" and open to veering to another candidate. Nevertheless, the close relationship between voters' focus on the economy and their overall support for the Democratic nominee has boosted Obama.
Among white voters, economic anxiety translates into greater support for Obama. He is favored by 54 percent of whites who said they are concerned about the direction of the economy, but by just 10 percent of those who are less worried.
The survey also found that the strong initial public reaction to Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, McCain's running mate, has cooled somewhat. Overall, her unfavorable rating has gone up by 10 points in the past two weeks, from 28 percent to 38 percent.
She remains broadly popular -- 52 percent of voters view her positively -- but there have been some notable declines. Over the past two weeks, the percentage of independents with favorable views of Palin dropped from 60 percent to 48 percent. Among independent women, the decline was particularly sharp, going from 65 percent to 43 percent. Her favorable rating among whites without college degrees remained largely steady, but among those with college degrees, it dropped nearly 20 percentage points.
The survey also showed some backsliding in enthusiasm among McCain supporters. Overall, most supporters of each presidential candidate said they are enthusiastic about their choice, but 62 percent of Obama supporters said they are "very enthusiastic," compared with 34 percent of McCain's supporters. Coming out of the GOP convention, nearly half of those backing McCain said they did so fervently.
Among Republicans, conservatives and white evangelical Protestants, strong enthusiasm for McCain's candidacy has dropped by double digits.
The survey, conducted Friday through Monday, included telephone interviews with a random national sample of 1,082 adults, including 916 registered voters. The margin of error for the full sample is plus or minus three percentage points; it is four points for the sample of 780 likely voters.
Overall, Obama and McCain are tied among men in the new poll, while Obama has opened up a sizable lead among women. The candidates divide white voters, 50 percent for McCain to 45 percent for Obama, while Obama has an overwhelming advantage among African Americans, 96 percent to 3 percent.
Independents, key swing voters, now break for Obama, 53 percent to 39 percent, reversing a small lead for McCain after the Republican convention. McCain is the choice of 86 percent of Republicans, while about as many Democrats, 88 percent, back Obama.
In the new poll, voters once again gave Obama higher marks than McCain when it comes to dealing with the economy, 53 percent to 39 percent. Two weeks ago, Obama's edge on the question was a narrow five points, his lowest of the campaign. Among independents, Obama's advantage on the economy -- now 21 points -- is greater than at any point in the campaign.
McCain's advantages on national security issues have also been blunted. Two weeks ago, when those surveyed were asked who they trusted to deal with a major unexpected crisis, McCain led 54 percent to 37 percent. That lead is gone.
Similarly, McCain's once-sizable advantage in dealing with the battle against terrorism has all but disappeared. There were also big shifts toward Obama on handling Iraq and international affairs more broadly.
The first presidential debate, set for Friday evening, is slated to focus on foreign policy and national security, but economic issues seem likely to be included, given the developments on Wall Street. The debate appears poised to draw record levels of attention, as interest in the election has been sky high and continues to grow. Almost all voters are tuned in, and 55 percent are following "very closely," higher than at this time in 2004 and more than double the percentage so engaged in 2000.
A substantial hurdle for Obama is the widespread public skepticism about whether he would make a good commander in chief. On that question, he has made no significant headway in allaying voters' concerns. They remain evenly divided -- 48 percent said he would be effective in that role, 47 percent said he would not. Nearly three-quarters said McCain would manage the military well, and as many said he has the knowledge of world affairs to serve effectively.
Still, the candidates are rated about equally on the question of who is the stronger leader.
In the aftermath of the national conventions and the surprise pick of Palin, McCain had narrowed the gap with Obama on who is more likely to change Washington. In the new survey, Obama has reestablished his credentials on that front. He also now holds a double-digit lead as the more honest and trustworthy candidate, flipping what had been a slight McCain edge two weeks ago.
Obama has also cemented a clear edge among voters prioritizing the economy, a growing group. Among "economy voters," he now leads McCain by nearly 2 to 1. McCain holds advantages among voters prioritizing a range of concerns that rank lower on the issues list, making it harder for him to find ways to drive the agenda of the campaign into favorable territory.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company
Monday, September 22, 2008
Obama's Record Uneven as a Debater
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The New York Times
September 23, 2008
Obama Carries Uneven Record as Debater to First Contest With McCain
By JOHN M. BRODER
Senator Barack Obama has shown himself at times to be a great orator. His debating skills, however, have been uneven.
Some of his chief strengths — his facility with words, his wry detachment, his reasoning skills, his youthful cool — have not always served him well and may pose significant vulnerabilities in the series of presidential debates that begins Friday, according to political analysts and a review of his earlier debate performances.
Mr. Obama has a tendency to overintellectualize and to lecture, befitting his training as a lawyer and law professor. He exudes disdain for the quips and sound bites that some deride as trivializing political debates but that have become a central part of scoring them. He tends to the earnest and humorless when audiences seem to crave passion and personality. He frequently rises above the mire of political combat when the battle calls for engagement.
This was seen most starkly at last month’s forum at Saddleback Church, where he and Senator John McCain were interviewed back to back by the evangelical church’s pastor, the Rev. Rick Warren. Mr. Obama gave long, discursive answers to questions on loaded topics like abortion and personal moral failings, while Mr. McCain stole the show with earthy anecdotes and humor.
“Obama clearly knows how to float like a butterfly,” said Alan Schroeder, who studies media and the presidency at Northeastern University, “but he needs to work on the sting-like-a-bee part.”
Those who watched his debate performances during the long primary season say he improved markedly from a fairly shaky start but never really mastered the form.
“During the course of 18 months, he learned to give shorter, crisper answers,” said Howard Wolfson, a top adviser to Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton who helped prepare her for the two dozen debates she had with Mr. Obama and other Democratic candidates. “I think his command of facts, figures and anecdotes got consistently stronger.”
One of Mr. Obama’s worst moments came in the first Democratic debate, in South Carolina in April 2007. The candidates were asked how they would respond to a new series of terrorist attacks.
Mrs. Clinton gave a short answer, ending, “Let’s focus on those who have attacked us and do everything we can to destroy them.”
But Mr. Obama gave a rambling reply on emergency response, intelligence flaws and the importance of engaging “the international community.” He had to ask for a second chance to answer the question in order to say he would go after the terrorists.
Two months later he was on the defensive over a question of meeting without preconditions with the leaders of hostile states. He said that he would do so and that he disagreed with the Bush administration’s approach of not engaging with Iran, Syria, Cuba and North Korea. His rivals cited this as evidence of his naïveté in foreign affairs.
Perhaps Mr. Obama’s single worst debate moment came early this January in New Hampshire, where Mrs. Clinton was asked why some people found her less likable than some of her rivals. She adopted a hurt tone and said of Mr. Obama: “He’s very likable, I agree with that. But I don’t think I’m that bad.”
Mr. Obama looked at her and said coldly, “You’re likable enough.”
In part because of a sympathy backlash, Mrs. Clinton went on to win the New Hampshire primary, keeping her candidacy alive.
At a debate two weeks later, Mr. Obama apologized for the remark.
From then on, Mr. Obama’s performances improved. At a debate in late January, Mrs. Clinton accused him of getting financial favors from a Chicago “slumlord,” a reference to Antoin Rezko. Mr. Obama shot back that while he was doing community organizing work, she had been sitting on the board of Wal-Mart. But he seemed uncomfortable with the exchange and a few minutes later lightened a tense moment with his answer to a question about whether Bill Clinton had been the first “black president.”
“I would have to investigate more Bill’s dancing abilities and some of this other stuff,” he said with a smile, “before I accurately judged whether in fact he was a brother.”
And, though he focused largely on his Democratic rivals during most of the primary campaign, he said of Mr. McCain at a Democratic debate in February, “Somewhere along the line the Straight Talk Express lost some wheels.”
Again in February, when Mrs. Clinton tried to goad him by referring to his borrowing some speech lines with a mocking reference to “change you can Xerox,” he brushed off the swipe as part of the “silly season in politics.”
By the final debate of the primary season, on April 16 in Philadelphia, Mr. Obama was both more polished and at times exasperated by the process. He was subjected to repeated severe questioning that night about the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., his association with William Ayers, a former member of the Weather Underground, and his refusal then to wear a flag pin. He endured the grilling, looking testy at times, but also won some points for empathy by recounting the stories of people he had met along the campaign trail, including a man in Latrobe, Pa., “who lost his job and was trying to figure out where he was going to get the gas money to go find a job.”
Mr. Obama has been involved in high-stakes political debates since his first, unsuccessful race for Congress in 2000, when he took on a popular incumbent, Representative Bobby L. Rush of Illinois.
In the sole televised debate of that campaign, he aggressively attacked Mr. Rush until the moderator cut him off. Mr. Rush dismissed his challenger as an upstart with no record to run on.
“Just what’s he done?” Mr. Rush said, according to an account in “Obama: From Promise to Power,” by David Mendell. “I mean, what’s he done?”
A deflated Mr. Obama went on to lose the election by 30 percentage points.
In 2004, Mr. Obama was running for the Senate against Alan Keyes, a glib talk show host whom Republicans had imported from Maryland to oppose him after more credible candidates were disqualified by personal scandal.
Mr. Obama’s aloofness and windiness were on display in a debate against Mr. Keyes, but he was able to cut through the verbal clutter on occasion to deliver a cutting response to him.
“Your logic was not that complicated,” Mr. Obama said to end one exchange on homosexuality and incest. “It’s just wrong.”
On another occasion, Mr. Keyes asserted that Jesus would not vote for Mr. Obama because of his support for abortion rights. Mr. Obama replied that if he had a chance to consult with Jesus, he would not ask him about a Senate race.
“I’d want to know if I was going up or down,” he said. “There’s all sorts of questions that I’d be interested in.”
The New York Times
September 23, 2008
Obama Carries Uneven Record as Debater to First Contest With McCain
By JOHN M. BRODER
Senator Barack Obama has shown himself at times to be a great orator. His debating skills, however, have been uneven.
Some of his chief strengths — his facility with words, his wry detachment, his reasoning skills, his youthful cool — have not always served him well and may pose significant vulnerabilities in the series of presidential debates that begins Friday, according to political analysts and a review of his earlier debate performances.
Mr. Obama has a tendency to overintellectualize and to lecture, befitting his training as a lawyer and law professor. He exudes disdain for the quips and sound bites that some deride as trivializing political debates but that have become a central part of scoring them. He tends to the earnest and humorless when audiences seem to crave passion and personality. He frequently rises above the mire of political combat when the battle calls for engagement.
This was seen most starkly at last month’s forum at Saddleback Church, where he and Senator John McCain were interviewed back to back by the evangelical church’s pastor, the Rev. Rick Warren. Mr. Obama gave long, discursive answers to questions on loaded topics like abortion and personal moral failings, while Mr. McCain stole the show with earthy anecdotes and humor.
“Obama clearly knows how to float like a butterfly,” said Alan Schroeder, who studies media and the presidency at Northeastern University, “but he needs to work on the sting-like-a-bee part.”
Those who watched his debate performances during the long primary season say he improved markedly from a fairly shaky start but never really mastered the form.
“During the course of 18 months, he learned to give shorter, crisper answers,” said Howard Wolfson, a top adviser to Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton who helped prepare her for the two dozen debates she had with Mr. Obama and other Democratic candidates. “I think his command of facts, figures and anecdotes got consistently stronger.”
One of Mr. Obama’s worst moments came in the first Democratic debate, in South Carolina in April 2007. The candidates were asked how they would respond to a new series of terrorist attacks.
Mrs. Clinton gave a short answer, ending, “Let’s focus on those who have attacked us and do everything we can to destroy them.”
But Mr. Obama gave a rambling reply on emergency response, intelligence flaws and the importance of engaging “the international community.” He had to ask for a second chance to answer the question in order to say he would go after the terrorists.
Two months later he was on the defensive over a question of meeting without preconditions with the leaders of hostile states. He said that he would do so and that he disagreed with the Bush administration’s approach of not engaging with Iran, Syria, Cuba and North Korea. His rivals cited this as evidence of his naïveté in foreign affairs.
Perhaps Mr. Obama’s single worst debate moment came early this January in New Hampshire, where Mrs. Clinton was asked why some people found her less likable than some of her rivals. She adopted a hurt tone and said of Mr. Obama: “He’s very likable, I agree with that. But I don’t think I’m that bad.”
Mr. Obama looked at her and said coldly, “You’re likable enough.”
In part because of a sympathy backlash, Mrs. Clinton went on to win the New Hampshire primary, keeping her candidacy alive.
At a debate two weeks later, Mr. Obama apologized for the remark.
From then on, Mr. Obama’s performances improved. At a debate in late January, Mrs. Clinton accused him of getting financial favors from a Chicago “slumlord,” a reference to Antoin Rezko. Mr. Obama shot back that while he was doing community organizing work, she had been sitting on the board of Wal-Mart. But he seemed uncomfortable with the exchange and a few minutes later lightened a tense moment with his answer to a question about whether Bill Clinton had been the first “black president.”
“I would have to investigate more Bill’s dancing abilities and some of this other stuff,” he said with a smile, “before I accurately judged whether in fact he was a brother.”
And, though he focused largely on his Democratic rivals during most of the primary campaign, he said of Mr. McCain at a Democratic debate in February, “Somewhere along the line the Straight Talk Express lost some wheels.”
Again in February, when Mrs. Clinton tried to goad him by referring to his borrowing some speech lines with a mocking reference to “change you can Xerox,” he brushed off the swipe as part of the “silly season in politics.”
By the final debate of the primary season, on April 16 in Philadelphia, Mr. Obama was both more polished and at times exasperated by the process. He was subjected to repeated severe questioning that night about the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., his association with William Ayers, a former member of the Weather Underground, and his refusal then to wear a flag pin. He endured the grilling, looking testy at times, but also won some points for empathy by recounting the stories of people he had met along the campaign trail, including a man in Latrobe, Pa., “who lost his job and was trying to figure out where he was going to get the gas money to go find a job.”
Mr. Obama has been involved in high-stakes political debates since his first, unsuccessful race for Congress in 2000, when he took on a popular incumbent, Representative Bobby L. Rush of Illinois.
In the sole televised debate of that campaign, he aggressively attacked Mr. Rush until the moderator cut him off. Mr. Rush dismissed his challenger as an upstart with no record to run on.
“Just what’s he done?” Mr. Rush said, according to an account in “Obama: From Promise to Power,” by David Mendell. “I mean, what’s he done?”
A deflated Mr. Obama went on to lose the election by 30 percentage points.
In 2004, Mr. Obama was running for the Senate against Alan Keyes, a glib talk show host whom Republicans had imported from Maryland to oppose him after more credible candidates were disqualified by personal scandal.
Mr. Obama’s aloofness and windiness were on display in a debate against Mr. Keyes, but he was able to cut through the verbal clutter on occasion to deliver a cutting response to him.
“Your logic was not that complicated,” Mr. Obama said to end one exchange on homosexuality and incest. “It’s just wrong.”
On another occasion, Mr. Keyes asserted that Jesus would not vote for Mr. Obama because of his support for abortion rights. Mr. Obama replied that if he had a chance to consult with Jesus, he would not ask him about a Senate race.
“I’d want to know if I was going up or down,” he said. “There’s all sorts of questions that I’d be interested in.”
Biden Repudiates Obama Ad On McCain's Computer Use
Biden Repudiates Obama Ad On McCain's Computer Use
22 Sep 2008 07:28 pm
Remember the Obama campaign ad making fun of Sen. John McCain for not using a computer? This line --
He admits he still doesn't know how to use a computer, can't send an e-mail, still doesn't understand the economy, and favors two hundred billion in new tax cuts for corporations, but almost nothing for the middle class,"
got a lot of attention.
Was it a dig at his age? His out-of-touch-ness? Was it appropriate given that McCain is physically incapable of e-mailing?
Whatever it was, Sen. Joe Biden thinks it was out of bounds:
He told Katie Couric late last week that he didn't know that the campaign was going to run the ad -- and had he known, "if I had anything to do with it, we would have never done it."
COURIC: Are you disappointed with the tone of the campaign? The lipstick on the pig stuff and some of the ads - you guys haven't been completely guilt free making fun of John McCain using a computer.
BIDEN: I thought that was terrible by the way.
COURIC: Why did you do it then?
BIDEN: I didn't know we did it and if I had anything to do with it, we would have never done it. And I don't think Barack, you know. I just think that was ...
COURIC: Did Barack Obama approve that ad?
BIDEN: The answer is I don't think there was anything intentional about that. They were trying to make another point. That's very different than deliberately taking a vote Barack Obama had to teach children how to deal with predators and saying he was teaching them sex education in kindergarten. Very different in degree.
22 Sep 2008 07:28 pm
Remember the Obama campaign ad making fun of Sen. John McCain for not using a computer? This line --
He admits he still doesn't know how to use a computer, can't send an e-mail, still doesn't understand the economy, and favors two hundred billion in new tax cuts for corporations, but almost nothing for the middle class,"
got a lot of attention.
Was it a dig at his age? His out-of-touch-ness? Was it appropriate given that McCain is physically incapable of e-mailing?
Whatever it was, Sen. Joe Biden thinks it was out of bounds:
He told Katie Couric late last week that he didn't know that the campaign was going to run the ad -- and had he known, "if I had anything to do with it, we would have never done it."
COURIC: Are you disappointed with the tone of the campaign? The lipstick on the pig stuff and some of the ads - you guys haven't been completely guilt free making fun of John McCain using a computer.
BIDEN: I thought that was terrible by the way.
COURIC: Why did you do it then?
BIDEN: I didn't know we did it and if I had anything to do with it, we would have never done it. And I don't think Barack, you know. I just think that was ...
COURIC: Did Barack Obama approve that ad?
BIDEN: The answer is I don't think there was anything intentional about that. They were trying to make another point. That's very different than deliberately taking a vote Barack Obama had to teach children how to deal with predators and saying he was teaching them sex education in kindergarten. Very different in degree.
DAILY TRACKING POLL 9/22/08
Diageo/Hotline Tracking 9/22 Obama: 47% McCain: 42%
Gallup Daily 9/22: Obama 48%, McCain 44%
Gallup Daily 9/22: Obama 48%, McCain 44%
FACTORS MORE IMPORTANT THAN FINANCIAL IN THE CAMPAIGN
Factors More Important Than the Financial Crisis in Determining Who Wins the White HouseListed in order of importance (by Mark Halperin-Time Magazine's The Page):
1. Michigan.
2. The first debate.
3. The final debate.
4. The percentage of voters on Election Day who think Barack Obama has a Muslim background.
5. Colorado, Virginia, Ohio.
6. The percentage of voters on Election Day who believe the country is on the wrong track who vote for John McCain.
7. The percentage of Democrats on Election Day who vote for Obama.
8. New Mexico, Nevada, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Iowa.
9. An/the October Surprise.
10. Voters’ views on Election Day of Obama and McCain on who would be better on the economy.
11. The Palin Factor.
12. The percentage of Republicans on Election Day who vote for McCain.
1. Michigan.
2. The first debate.
3. The final debate.
4. The percentage of voters on Election Day who think Barack Obama has a Muslim background.
5. Colorado, Virginia, Ohio.
6. The percentage of voters on Election Day who believe the country is on the wrong track who vote for John McCain.
7. The percentage of Democrats on Election Day who vote for Obama.
8. New Mexico, Nevada, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Iowa.
9. An/the October Surprise.
10. Voters’ views on Election Day of Obama and McCain on who would be better on the economy.
11. The Palin Factor.
12. The percentage of Republicans on Election Day who vote for McCain.
OBAMA'S STEADY HAND
Obama, Not McCain, Shows Steady Hand in Crisis: Albert R. Hunt
Commentary by Albert R. Hunt
Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- For the first time since 1932 a presidential election is taking place in the midst of a genuine financial crisis. The reaction of the candidates was revealing.
John McCain, railing against the ``greed and corruption'' of Wall Street, won the first round of the sound-bite war. He came out with a television commercial on the ``crisis'' early on Monday of last week, and over the next three days gave more than a dozen broadcast interviews. He and running mate Sarah Palin would reform Wall Street and regulate the nefarious fat cats that caused this fiasco.
It was a great start. It then went downhill as he stumbled over his record of championing deregulation, claimed the economy was fundamentally strong, and flip-flopped over the government takeover of American International Group Inc.
For his part, Barack Obama didn't come across as passionately outraged and wasn't as omnipresent or as specific.
More revealing, though, was to whom both candidates turned on that panic-ridden morning of Sept. 15, and how the messages evolved before and after that day.
McCain called Martin Feldstein, the well-known Republican economist and Reagan administration adviser, John Taylor of Stanford University, who served in President George W. Bush's Treasury and Carly Fiorina, once the chief executive officer of Hewlett-Packard Co.
Obama called former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, and former Treasury Secretaries Robert Rubin and Larry Summers.
It was a mismatch.
Towering Volcker
Feldstein, for all his intellect, was ineffective in the Reagan administration; then-White House deputy chief of staffDick Darman cut him out of important action. Volcker, first at the Treasury and then as chairman of the Federal Reserve, was a towering figure in every way.
Taylor is a well-regarded academic. In four years as undersecretary of the Treasury, he left few footprints. Summers, as both deputy secretary and secretary, left a lot.
Fiorina is smart and quick; to put it charitably, Rubin will forget more about financial markets than she'll ever know.
When it comes to governance -- and either Democrat Obama or Republican McCain will inherit this miserable financial mess
Commentary by Albert R. Hunt
Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- For the first time since 1932 a presidential election is taking place in the midst of a genuine financial crisis. The reaction of the candidates was revealing.
John McCain, railing against the ``greed and corruption'' of Wall Street, won the first round of the sound-bite war. He came out with a television commercial on the ``crisis'' early on Monday of last week, and over the next three days gave more than a dozen broadcast interviews. He and running mate Sarah Palin would reform Wall Street and regulate the nefarious fat cats that caused this fiasco.
It was a great start. It then went downhill as he stumbled over his record of championing deregulation, claimed the economy was fundamentally strong, and flip-flopped over the government takeover of American International Group Inc.
For his part, Barack Obama didn't come across as passionately outraged and wasn't as omnipresent or as specific.
More revealing, though, was to whom both candidates turned on that panic-ridden morning of Sept. 15, and how the messages evolved before and after that day.
McCain called Martin Feldstein, the well-known Republican economist and Reagan administration adviser, John Taylor of Stanford University, who served in President George W. Bush's Treasury and Carly Fiorina, once the chief executive officer of Hewlett-Packard Co.
Obama called former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, and former Treasury Secretaries Robert Rubin and Larry Summers.
It was a mismatch.
Towering Volcker
Feldstein, for all his intellect, was ineffective in the Reagan administration; then-White House deputy chief of staffDick Darman cut him out of important action. Volcker, first at the Treasury and then as chairman of the Federal Reserve, was a towering figure in every way.
Taylor is a well-regarded academic. In four years as undersecretary of the Treasury, he left few footprints. Summers, as both deputy secretary and secretary, left a lot.
Fiorina is smart and quick; to put it charitably, Rubin will forget more about financial markets than she'll ever know.
When it comes to governance -- and either Democrat Obama or Republican McCain will inherit this miserable financial mess
Saturday, September 20, 2008
A DEBATE'S HIGH STAKES
A Debate's High Stakes
By David S. Broder
Sunday, September 21, 2008; B07
Friday evening in Oxford, Miss., Barack Obama and John McCain will meet in the first presidential debate of 2008, and this dramatic campaign will in all likelihood reach another turning point.
The matchup could have come much earlier, but Obama turned down McCain's invitation to join in a series of town hall meetings during the summer. That would have allowed both men to ease into personal confrontation with relatively small audiences and similarly modest stakes.
Now, they meet with terribly high expectations on both of them and little room for error. McCain, after enjoying a brief boost from the Republican convention and the unveiling of Sarah Palin, has fallen back into his pre-convention position, lagging slightly behind. Obama still is unable to lock down 270 electoral votes because he is falling well short of the lead that Democrats enjoy generically over the Republican opposition this year.
Obama is known for his eloquence, while McCain often struggles even when given a decent script to read. That creates an expectation that the Democrat ought to dominate when the two men are directly compared.
But when I discussed the coming debate with one of the Democrats' most experienced debate handlers -- a man who helped prepare Hillary Clinton for the primary debates and is now advising Obama -- he said, "No matter what others say, I think this is a very even matchup."
McCain, he said, has developed a knack for answering questions with flat, simple declarative sentences, conveying a sense of candor and strength. Obama, on the other hand, often starts slowly and finishes with a more complex, if sophisticated, answer. That made McCain the clear winner when they did back-to-back sessions with pastor Rick Warren.
When I bounced these comments off a Republican debate handler, he was derisive. "That's spin," he said. "McCain has lots of strengths, but verbally, he's not in the same league as Obama. This will be a severe test for him."
Looking back at the performance of the two men during their primary debates, the proposition that they are evenly matched looks quite plausible.
McCain began his revival last year with a strong performance in a Republican debate in New Hampshire. Throughout the spring, he was usually at least the second-best man on the stage, outdone by the folksy and humorous Mike Huckabee but clearly more comfortable and assertive than Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani and the others.
Other than by Romney, McCain was rarely directly challenged in the way that Obama will test him; the other Republicans paid tribute to his character and treated him with kid gloves. So his struggles to maintain his composure and avoid personal attacks on Romney suggest a potential vulnerability. When Obama bluntly questions McCain's positions, the Arizona senator may have difficulty staying cool.
On the other hand, Obama did not win the Democratic nomination by dominating the debates. In the early ones, when the stage was full, he lacked the verbal or physical tools to stand out from the crowd. More often than not, it was Hillary Clinton or John Edwards who made the strongest impression on the cameras and the audience. And when Clinton and Obama met one on one, she won most of the confrontations and the subsequent primaries.
The scheduled topic for the first debate is national security. We know that McCain will fault Obama for his opposition to the "surge" strategy and Obama will question why McCain was an enthusiastic backer of the Iraq war, which Obama opposed from the start.
But the real test for both men is different from this argument. To win the election -- and not just this debate -- McCain must somehow convince voters that he would be fundamentally different from George Bush, whose policies and methods have been overwhelmingly rejected.
To win the election -- and not just the debate -- Obama must show enough of himself that voters come to believe that despite not being able to identify with aspects of his exotic life story, they can trust him to look out for their interests as president.
Those are very different challenges. Neither candidate has an easy task. That is what makes this debate so intriguing.
davidbroder@washpost.com
.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company
By David S. Broder
Sunday, September 21, 2008; B07
Friday evening in Oxford, Miss., Barack Obama and John McCain will meet in the first presidential debate of 2008, and this dramatic campaign will in all likelihood reach another turning point.
The matchup could have come much earlier, but Obama turned down McCain's invitation to join in a series of town hall meetings during the summer. That would have allowed both men to ease into personal confrontation with relatively small audiences and similarly modest stakes.
Now, they meet with terribly high expectations on both of them and little room for error. McCain, after enjoying a brief boost from the Republican convention and the unveiling of Sarah Palin, has fallen back into his pre-convention position, lagging slightly behind. Obama still is unable to lock down 270 electoral votes because he is falling well short of the lead that Democrats enjoy generically over the Republican opposition this year.
Obama is known for his eloquence, while McCain often struggles even when given a decent script to read. That creates an expectation that the Democrat ought to dominate when the two men are directly compared.
But when I discussed the coming debate with one of the Democrats' most experienced debate handlers -- a man who helped prepare Hillary Clinton for the primary debates and is now advising Obama -- he said, "No matter what others say, I think this is a very even matchup."
McCain, he said, has developed a knack for answering questions with flat, simple declarative sentences, conveying a sense of candor and strength. Obama, on the other hand, often starts slowly and finishes with a more complex, if sophisticated, answer. That made McCain the clear winner when they did back-to-back sessions with pastor Rick Warren.
When I bounced these comments off a Republican debate handler, he was derisive. "That's spin," he said. "McCain has lots of strengths, but verbally, he's not in the same league as Obama. This will be a severe test for him."
Looking back at the performance of the two men during their primary debates, the proposition that they are evenly matched looks quite plausible.
McCain began his revival last year with a strong performance in a Republican debate in New Hampshire. Throughout the spring, he was usually at least the second-best man on the stage, outdone by the folksy and humorous Mike Huckabee but clearly more comfortable and assertive than Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani and the others.
Other than by Romney, McCain was rarely directly challenged in the way that Obama will test him; the other Republicans paid tribute to his character and treated him with kid gloves. So his struggles to maintain his composure and avoid personal attacks on Romney suggest a potential vulnerability. When Obama bluntly questions McCain's positions, the Arizona senator may have difficulty staying cool.
On the other hand, Obama did not win the Democratic nomination by dominating the debates. In the early ones, when the stage was full, he lacked the verbal or physical tools to stand out from the crowd. More often than not, it was Hillary Clinton or John Edwards who made the strongest impression on the cameras and the audience. And when Clinton and Obama met one on one, she won most of the confrontations and the subsequent primaries.
The scheduled topic for the first debate is national security. We know that McCain will fault Obama for his opposition to the "surge" strategy and Obama will question why McCain was an enthusiastic backer of the Iraq war, which Obama opposed from the start.
But the real test for both men is different from this argument. To win the election -- and not just this debate -- McCain must somehow convince voters that he would be fundamentally different from George Bush, whose policies and methods have been overwhelmingly rejected.
To win the election -- and not just the debate -- Obama must show enough of himself that voters come to believe that despite not being able to identify with aspects of his exotic life story, they can trust him to look out for their interests as president.
Those are very different challenges. Neither candidate has an easy task. That is what makes this debate so intriguing.
davidbroder@washpost.com
.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company
McCain's Bad Week
The Politico:
Martin and Thrush on McCain's bad week:
Wall Street’s breakdown and bailout are likely to improve Barack Obama’s odds of reaching the White House — a point not lost on John McCain, whose stumbles this week seemed to lend credence to the view that economics is not his strong suit.
He said the fundamentals of the economy were “strong,” then he said the economy was “in crisis.”
He called for a 9/11 Commission-style investigation into the financial crisis, then never brought it up again.
He said he opposed the $85 billion bailout of insurance giant AIG, then he said he supported it.
He said SEC Chairman Chris Cox had “betrayed the public’s trust” and should be fired, then called him a “good man” who only had to resign to be held accountable as the head of the commission.
And McCain’s campaign blasted Obama for not taking a firm stance on the AIG rescue, but McCain himself has declined to take a definitive position on the Bush administration’s $500 billion to $1 trillion plan to buy up the bad debt of other financial institutions.
McCain aides, recognizing the political difficulties of the moment, are trying to turn the debate over an economic crisis into a fight over Obama’s character and leadership. In a blistering speech Friday in Green Bay, Wis., McCain tried to put the blame for the financial meltdown on Obama and resurrect a larger debate over taxes and the candidates’ competing economic plans.
Obama, by contrast, has sought to play the steady, if cautious, statesman — studiously avoiding a position on the AIG bailout, aligning himself with economic advisers such as former Clinton Treasury Secretary and economic soother Robert Rubin, and talking about the need to put politics aside and address the problem at hand in a fashion his advisers hoped seemed presidential.
Martin and Thrush on McCain's bad week:
Wall Street’s breakdown and bailout are likely to improve Barack Obama’s odds of reaching the White House — a point not lost on John McCain, whose stumbles this week seemed to lend credence to the view that economics is not his strong suit.
He said the fundamentals of the economy were “strong,” then he said the economy was “in crisis.”
He called for a 9/11 Commission-style investigation into the financial crisis, then never brought it up again.
He said he opposed the $85 billion bailout of insurance giant AIG, then he said he supported it.
He said SEC Chairman Chris Cox had “betrayed the public’s trust” and should be fired, then called him a “good man” who only had to resign to be held accountable as the head of the commission.
And McCain’s campaign blasted Obama for not taking a firm stance on the AIG rescue, but McCain himself has declined to take a definitive position on the Bush administration’s $500 billion to $1 trillion plan to buy up the bad debt of other financial institutions.
McCain aides, recognizing the political difficulties of the moment, are trying to turn the debate over an economic crisis into a fight over Obama’s character and leadership. In a blistering speech Friday in Green Bay, Wis., McCain tried to put the blame for the financial meltdown on Obama and resurrect a larger debate over taxes and the candidates’ competing economic plans.
Obama, by contrast, has sought to play the steady, if cautious, statesman — studiously avoiding a position on the AIG bailout, aligning himself with economic advisers such as former Clinton Treasury Secretary and economic soother Robert Rubin, and talking about the need to put politics aside and address the problem at hand in a fashion his advisers hoped seemed presidential.
TiVo/VCR Alert
Obama, McCain interviews take up the full hour on CBS’ “60 Minutes” Sunday, 9/21 at 7:00pm on channel 8 (unless a football game delays the start of "60 Minutes")
Friday, September 19, 2008
FLORIDA, LONG WAY FROM ALASKA
Florida, long way from Alaska
An interesting focus group from the St. Pete Times finds a bit of what could be called an Ed Koch effect:
Five weeks ago, the St. Petersburg Times convened a group of Tampa Bay voters who were undecided about the presidential election. Their strong distrust of Barack Obama suggested it was a group ripe for John McCain to win over.
Not anymore. The group has swung dramatically, if unenthusiastically, toward Democrat Obama. Most of them this week cited the same reason: Sarah Palin.
"The one thing that frightens me more than anything else are the ideologues. We've seen too many," said 80-year-old Air Force veteran Donn Spegal, a lifelong Republican from St. Petersburg, who sees McCain's new running mate as the kind of "wedge issue" social conservative that has made him disenchanted with his party.
An interesting focus group from the St. Pete Times finds a bit of what could be called an Ed Koch effect:
Five weeks ago, the St. Petersburg Times convened a group of Tampa Bay voters who were undecided about the presidential election. Their strong distrust of Barack Obama suggested it was a group ripe for John McCain to win over.
Not anymore. The group has swung dramatically, if unenthusiastically, toward Democrat Obama. Most of them this week cited the same reason: Sarah Palin.
"The one thing that frightens me more than anything else are the ideologues. We've seen too many," said 80-year-old Air Force veteran Donn Spegal, a lifelong Republican from St. Petersburg, who sees McCain's new running mate as the kind of "wedge issue" social conservative that has made him disenchanted with his party.
Poll Numbers--Friday, 9/19/08
New Battleground Polls
Friday, September 19th, 2008
From the Marist Poll, among registered voters:
Michigan: Obama 50, McCain 41
Ohio: McCain 44, Obama 44
Pennsylvania: Obama 45, McCain 42
Conducted varying dates between September 11-17; error margin 3.5 points
Gallup Daily: Obama Now Leads McCain by 5 Points
At 49%, support for Obama is near his record high for the year
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Tuesday through Thursday finds Barack Obama with a five percentage point lead over John McCain in the presidential preferences of registered voters, 49% to 44%.
Friday, September 19th, 2008
From the Marist Poll, among registered voters:
Michigan: Obama 50, McCain 41
Ohio: McCain 44, Obama 44
Pennsylvania: Obama 45, McCain 42
Conducted varying dates between September 11-17; error margin 3.5 points
Gallup Daily: Obama Now Leads McCain by 5 Points
At 49%, support for Obama is near his record high for the year
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Tuesday through Thursday finds Barack Obama with a five percentage point lead over John McCain in the presidential preferences of registered voters, 49% to 44%.
McCain's New Slogan
Wish Obama said first "McCain first, Country last" witness Sarah Palin. This outrageous slogan could be the final of the campaign, until he sees that doesn't work either.“
That’s How We See This Election: Country First Or Obama First” John McCain
McCain accuses his rival of putting himself before his country during his Blaine, Minnesota rally, suggesting Obama has been “gaming the system.”
“That’s not country first — that’s Obama first…”
Also: Again hits Obama on Johnson and Raines.
Palin introduces McCain, delivers new remarks on the dangers of Iran’s nuclear program. Then goes into stump speech, including electrifying the crowd with her signature line: “There is only one man in this election who has ever really fought for you.”
That’s How We See This Election: Country First Or Obama First” John McCain
McCain accuses his rival of putting himself before his country during his Blaine, Minnesota rally, suggesting Obama has been “gaming the system.”
“That’s not country first — that’s Obama first…”
Also: Again hits Obama on Johnson and Raines.
Palin introduces McCain, delivers new remarks on the dangers of Iran’s nuclear program. Then goes into stump speech, including electrifying the crowd with her signature line: “There is only one man in this election who has ever really fought for you.”
Thursday, September 18, 2008
A New McCain on the Campaign Trail
The New York Times
A New McCain on the Campaign Trail
By ADAM NAGOURNEY
VIENNA, Ohio — Senator John McCain’s campaign events were once free-wheeling journeys marked by flashes of humor, candor and arch observations from the candidate about presidential politics — and John McCain. Oh, and moments that left no doubt that Mr. McCain was not working from any script.
“Thanks for the question, you little jerk,” Mr. McCain said to a New Hampshire high school student who inquired about his age last year, raising his eyebrows as he chortled at his own joke. “You’re drafted.”
Not these days. As Mr. McCain worked his way through Florida and Ohio as the Republican Party’s nominee for president this week, he was a candidate transformed. The Arizona Republican unsmilingly raced through a series of relatively brief speeches, reading often from a Teleprompter, and served up a diet of the kind of sound-bite attacks that he used to dismiss with an eye-roll.
“Just a little while ago, he flew off to Hollywood with a fundraiser for Barbra Streisand and his celebrity friends,” Mr. McCain said of his opponent, Senator Barack Obama, his voice sounding strained at the end of the day but still dripping with scorn. “Let me tell you, my friends: There’s no place I would rather be than here with the working men and women of Ohio.”
Mr. McCain’s once easy-going if irreverent campaign presence — endearing to crowds, though often the kind of undisciplined excursions that landed him in the gaffe doghouse — has been put out to pasture. He takes far fewer chances, meaning there are fewer risqué jokes, zingers at a familiar face in the crowd, provocative observations on policy or politics, or exercises in self-derogatory humor. By every appearance, this Mr. McCain is, or at least is struggling to be, disciplined and on message in a way befitting of American politics today, if not quite befitting of the McCain of yesterday.
There may be a price for all this. After Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, his running-mate, riveted the overflow crowd at an airplane hangar here for 16 minutes, it was Mr. McCain’s turn, and people in his audience began murmuring and drifting away midway through a 14-minute speech that was flat and cheerless. When Mr. McCain made his first appearance without Ms. Palin, on Monday morning in Jacksonville, Fla., he faced an arena that was one-quarter full.
Still, it is the course Mr. McCain has chosen and one his aides say he will stay on.
To a certain extent, Mr. McCain is trying to struggle with the fact that he is now a general election candidate in an environment where — more than ever — the other side (or reporters or following him) are ready to seize on any slip-up, real or imagined. This is no a time for the idle remark, bout of frankness, or edgy humor that once stood Mr. McCain apart on the candidate field.
And what voters are seeing in these final weeks of the campaign is a very deliberately retooled version of Mr. McCain — what he says, how he says it and how he goes about the day-to-day steps of campaigning. It came about as part of a fundamental reordering of his campaign that resulted from the ascension of the hard-driving, disciplined Steve Schmidt, a senior campaign adviser and veteran of President Bush’s 2004 campaign, who popped up on Mr. McCain’s plane one day this week.
Mr. McCain is by all appearances struggling to stick to his script and avoiding, whenever possible, events that his campaign cannot control. There are now not one but two firmly drawn curtains separating Mr. McCain’s spacious quarters on his plane from the press corps. Left idle is the couch that was built in the front of his plane — called “Straight Talk Air” — to reproduce at 30,000 feet the free-wheeling chats with reporters that were the stock-in-trade on his bus; the other morning it was covered with newspapers. Mr. McCain, who promised to hold weekly press conferences if elected president, has not held one in more than a month.
He recently began doing Town Hall meetings with voters, including one Wednesday night in Grand Rapids, Mich., with Ms. Palin, but these are mostly by invitation-only — reminiscent of President Bush’s town hall meetings of 2004 — as was obvious by the succession of softballs and adulatory questions floated across his plate.
For anyone who has covered Mr. McCain over the past decade, this new version of the candidate can be a striking sight. There he was the other day leading a crowd in a chant of “Drill, Baby, Drill,” the words that now invariably arise from his crowds when Mr. McCain talks about his support for offshore drilling, a position he once rejected.
There are the attacks against Wall Street — the denunciation of cheats and greed and self-dealing — which recall the decidedly populist cant of Al Gore, the Democrat, when he was running for president in 2000. He attacked Mr. Obama for holding a celebrity-strewn big-dollar fundraiser in Hollywood despite the fact that he had just held his own big-dollar celebrity-strewn fundraiser in Hollywood.
There are the indignant attacks on corruption and self-dealing in Congress, the institution where he has served for 25 years. “The word is going out my friends — to the old-boy network, the pork-barrelers, the earmarkers — that change is coming,” Mr. McCain said at stop after stop. “Change is coming! Two mavericks are coming to Washington and we’re going to shake things up!”
And most notable are the dizzying cascade of attacks on Mr. Obama, who seems to have come to consume Mr. McCain as the weather turns cool, a reminder that this long election cycle is approaching its end. “Let’s have some straight talk,” he said. “Senator Obama is not interested in the politics of hope. He’s interested in his political future. That’s why he is hurtling insults and making up facts.”
For years, Mr. McCain has struck a different kind of cloth as a presidential candidate: as a politician capable of defying his party or embracing it; holding a world view that defied any easy ideological setting; having an ironic detachment as he observed himself on the campaign trail, combined with a sly sense of humor that leavened his occasional bursts of temper. These days, he sounds less like his old self than Bob Dole, another senator who ran for president in 1996, sounded in the closing days of his campaign — speaking louder or repeating statements that he thinks might be overlooked.
“The American economy is in a crisis! It’s in a crisis!”
Mr. McCain’s aides suggested that their candidate will spend as much time possible with Ms. Palin campaigning in the final weeks of the race, pointing to her proven ability not only to draw a crowd but to animate the ticket in a way that Mr. McCain cannot. And Ms. Palin has shown no hesitancy about carrying a traditional burden of vice presidential candidates by attacking Mr. Obama.
But these days, this Mr. McCain seems content carrying that burden himself.
A New McCain on the Campaign Trail
By ADAM NAGOURNEY
VIENNA, Ohio — Senator John McCain’s campaign events were once free-wheeling journeys marked by flashes of humor, candor and arch observations from the candidate about presidential politics — and John McCain. Oh, and moments that left no doubt that Mr. McCain was not working from any script.
“Thanks for the question, you little jerk,” Mr. McCain said to a New Hampshire high school student who inquired about his age last year, raising his eyebrows as he chortled at his own joke. “You’re drafted.”
Not these days. As Mr. McCain worked his way through Florida and Ohio as the Republican Party’s nominee for president this week, he was a candidate transformed. The Arizona Republican unsmilingly raced through a series of relatively brief speeches, reading often from a Teleprompter, and served up a diet of the kind of sound-bite attacks that he used to dismiss with an eye-roll.
“Just a little while ago, he flew off to Hollywood with a fundraiser for Barbra Streisand and his celebrity friends,” Mr. McCain said of his opponent, Senator Barack Obama, his voice sounding strained at the end of the day but still dripping with scorn. “Let me tell you, my friends: There’s no place I would rather be than here with the working men and women of Ohio.”
Mr. McCain’s once easy-going if irreverent campaign presence — endearing to crowds, though often the kind of undisciplined excursions that landed him in the gaffe doghouse — has been put out to pasture. He takes far fewer chances, meaning there are fewer risqué jokes, zingers at a familiar face in the crowd, provocative observations on policy or politics, or exercises in self-derogatory humor. By every appearance, this Mr. McCain is, or at least is struggling to be, disciplined and on message in a way befitting of American politics today, if not quite befitting of the McCain of yesterday.
There may be a price for all this. After Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, his running-mate, riveted the overflow crowd at an airplane hangar here for 16 minutes, it was Mr. McCain’s turn, and people in his audience began murmuring and drifting away midway through a 14-minute speech that was flat and cheerless. When Mr. McCain made his first appearance without Ms. Palin, on Monday morning in Jacksonville, Fla., he faced an arena that was one-quarter full.
Still, it is the course Mr. McCain has chosen and one his aides say he will stay on.
To a certain extent, Mr. McCain is trying to struggle with the fact that he is now a general election candidate in an environment where — more than ever — the other side (or reporters or following him) are ready to seize on any slip-up, real or imagined. This is no a time for the idle remark, bout of frankness, or edgy humor that once stood Mr. McCain apart on the candidate field.
And what voters are seeing in these final weeks of the campaign is a very deliberately retooled version of Mr. McCain — what he says, how he says it and how he goes about the day-to-day steps of campaigning. It came about as part of a fundamental reordering of his campaign that resulted from the ascension of the hard-driving, disciplined Steve Schmidt, a senior campaign adviser and veteran of President Bush’s 2004 campaign, who popped up on Mr. McCain’s plane one day this week.
Mr. McCain is by all appearances struggling to stick to his script and avoiding, whenever possible, events that his campaign cannot control. There are now not one but two firmly drawn curtains separating Mr. McCain’s spacious quarters on his plane from the press corps. Left idle is the couch that was built in the front of his plane — called “Straight Talk Air” — to reproduce at 30,000 feet the free-wheeling chats with reporters that were the stock-in-trade on his bus; the other morning it was covered with newspapers. Mr. McCain, who promised to hold weekly press conferences if elected president, has not held one in more than a month.
He recently began doing Town Hall meetings with voters, including one Wednesday night in Grand Rapids, Mich., with Ms. Palin, but these are mostly by invitation-only — reminiscent of President Bush’s town hall meetings of 2004 — as was obvious by the succession of softballs and adulatory questions floated across his plate.
For anyone who has covered Mr. McCain over the past decade, this new version of the candidate can be a striking sight. There he was the other day leading a crowd in a chant of “Drill, Baby, Drill,” the words that now invariably arise from his crowds when Mr. McCain talks about his support for offshore drilling, a position he once rejected.
There are the attacks against Wall Street — the denunciation of cheats and greed and self-dealing — which recall the decidedly populist cant of Al Gore, the Democrat, when he was running for president in 2000. He attacked Mr. Obama for holding a celebrity-strewn big-dollar fundraiser in Hollywood despite the fact that he had just held his own big-dollar celebrity-strewn fundraiser in Hollywood.
There are the indignant attacks on corruption and self-dealing in Congress, the institution where he has served for 25 years. “The word is going out my friends — to the old-boy network, the pork-barrelers, the earmarkers — that change is coming,” Mr. McCain said at stop after stop. “Change is coming! Two mavericks are coming to Washington and we’re going to shake things up!”
And most notable are the dizzying cascade of attacks on Mr. Obama, who seems to have come to consume Mr. McCain as the weather turns cool, a reminder that this long election cycle is approaching its end. “Let’s have some straight talk,” he said. “Senator Obama is not interested in the politics of hope. He’s interested in his political future. That’s why he is hurtling insults and making up facts.”
For years, Mr. McCain has struck a different kind of cloth as a presidential candidate: as a politician capable of defying his party or embracing it; holding a world view that defied any easy ideological setting; having an ironic detachment as he observed himself on the campaign trail, combined with a sly sense of humor that leavened his occasional bursts of temper. These days, he sounds less like his old self than Bob Dole, another senator who ran for president in 1996, sounded in the closing days of his campaign — speaking louder or repeating statements that he thinks might be overlooked.
“The American economy is in a crisis! It’s in a crisis!”
Mr. McCain’s aides suggested that their candidate will spend as much time possible with Ms. Palin campaigning in the final weeks of the race, pointing to her proven ability not only to draw a crowd but to animate the ticket in a way that Mr. McCain cannot. And Ms. Palin has shown no hesitancy about carrying a traditional burden of vice presidential candidates by attacking Mr. Obama.
But these days, this Mr. McCain seems content carrying that burden himself.
Sarah's Strange SNL Story
Another Strange Story by Andrew Sullivan
18 Sep 2008 10:45 am
Judge Judy has a great aphorism: "If it doesn't make sense, it isn't true." I couldn't help thinking of Judge Judy - who is now the only person I really want to cross examine Sarah Palin - when reading this:
HANNITY: One last question that I didn't ask you: Did you watch Tina Fey on "Saturday Night Live"?
PALIN: I watched with the volume all the way down and I thought it was hilarious, she was spot on.
HANNITY: Do you think you could play her one day?
PALIN: Oh absolutely. It was hilarious. Again, I didn't hear a word she said, but the visual was spot on.
Do you believe a word this person says? I guess it's obvious that at this point, I don't.Increasngly, she seems like a character in a Ricky Gervais comedy: caught in endless confabulations and not skilled enough to get away with them.
18 Sep 2008 10:45 am
Judge Judy has a great aphorism: "If it doesn't make sense, it isn't true." I couldn't help thinking of Judge Judy - who is now the only person I really want to cross examine Sarah Palin - when reading this:
HANNITY: One last question that I didn't ask you: Did you watch Tina Fey on "Saturday Night Live"?
PALIN: I watched with the volume all the way down and I thought it was hilarious, she was spot on.
HANNITY: Do you think you could play her one day?
PALIN: Oh absolutely. It was hilarious. Again, I didn't hear a word she said, but the visual was spot on.
Do you believe a word this person says? I guess it's obvious that at this point, I don't.Increasngly, she seems like a character in a Ricky Gervais comedy: caught in endless confabulations and not skilled enough to get away with them.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Latest Time/CNN Battleground Polls
LATEST TIME/CNN BATTLEGROUND POLLS
Wednesday, September 17th, 2008
TIME/CNN
Florida: Obama 48, McCain 48
Indiana: McCain 51, Obama 45
North Carolina: McCain 48, Obama 47
Ohio: Obama 49, McCain 47
Wisconsin: Obama 50, McCain 47
Dates conducted: Sept. 14-16. Error margin: Ranges from 3-3.5 points.
Wednesday, September 17th, 2008
TIME/CNN
Florida: Obama 48, McCain 48
Indiana: McCain 51, Obama 45
North Carolina: McCain 48, Obama 47
Ohio: Obama 49, McCain 47
Wisconsin: Obama 50, McCain 47
Dates conducted: Sept. 14-16. Error margin: Ranges from 3-3.5 points.
DAILY POLLING UPDATE--WED. 9/17/08
Daily Polling Update
Watch for a new CBS News / New York Times poll out tonight and the first installment of the Hotline-Diageo weekly battleground state polls out tomorrow.
ARG is supposed to release a big series of 25+ state polls at some point within the next 24 hours
Reuters/Zogby's latest national poll gives Obama a two point lead -- 47% to 45%.
Gallup Daily: Obama 47%, McCain 45%
The Sept. 14-16 Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows Barack Obama with 47% support among registered voters, and John McCain with 45%; although not a statistically significant lead for Obama, this marks the first time since the week of the Republican National Convention that McCain has not held at least a slight edge.
Watch for a new CBS News / New York Times poll out tonight and the first installment of the Hotline-Diageo weekly battleground state polls out tomorrow.
ARG is supposed to release a big series of 25+ state polls at some point within the next 24 hours
Reuters/Zogby's latest national poll gives Obama a two point lead -- 47% to 45%.
Gallup Daily: Obama 47%, McCain 45%
The Sept. 14-16 Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows Barack Obama with 47% support among registered voters, and John McCain with 45%; although not a statistically significant lead for Obama, this marks the first time since the week of the Republican National Convention that McCain has not held at least a slight edge.
TWO FACES OF JOHN MCCAIN
McCain has 2 faces: Washington in- and outsider
By GLEN JOHNSON – 6 hours ago
VIENNA, Ohio (AP) — John McCain embraces and expels Washington like an accordion player belting out a song.
Squeeze in and he touts his vast knowledge of the capital city. Draw out and he casts himself a reformer bent on changing its ways.
It's a remarkable dichotomy echoed throughout the Republican establishment, as a party that's held the White House for the past eight years tries to retain its grip in what has shaped up as a change election.
None other than the current president's brother has shown the GOP's willingness to deny the past as it looks to the future.
"Reform becomes contagious," former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush said at a McCain town hall meeting this week in Orlando. "If you start to dream bigger dreams and you start challenging the basic assumptions, you can change how things work, and we've done it in Florida, and the Good Lord knows we need to do it in Washington, D.C., and John McCain is the right guy at the right time to make that happen."
The Good Lord knows we need reform in Washington?
Did George W. Bush disown his younger brother after that close call with the hanging chads in 2000? Is Jeb harboring a grudge after those stories about how the Bush family expected him — not George — to follow their father as president? Did the Democrats control the White House for the past eight years, or both chambers of Congress for the first six of them?
No, Republicans did.
McCain has long considered himself a political maverick, and there's no doubt that the Arizona senator has bucked the system — especially later in his career.
A guy who was so close to the establishment that he once had his own number in the Keating Five scandal over time has challenged the institutions of Congress with campaign finance legislation and other reform measures.
A character so prominent in his party he could credibly run for its 2000 presidential nomination was enough of a bipartisan figure that Democrat John Kerry considered McCain as a running mate during the 2004 election.
This time around, though, McCain is projecting a dual image: the outside insider. A 25-year veteran of the House and Senate, a white man like all the rest of the country's presidents to date, McCain is trying to fend off a 44-year-old, first-term senator angling to become the first black to reach the Oval Office.
It's prompted almost melodic speechmaking and statements.
Squeeze in, and he's the new capital tour guide for his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.
"I can't wait to introduce her to Washington, D.C. I can't wait," he said to cheers Monday in Jacksonville.
Draw out, and he's never set foot in the city himself.
"The word's going out, my friends: The old-boy network, the pork-barrelers, the earmarkers, my friends, the word is, `Change is coming,'" McCain said. "There's two mavericks coming to Washington, and we're going to shake it up."
Squeeze in, and he's got the Washington skill set needed to right the country's Wall Street woes.
"I was the chairman on the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation for six years," he told reporters aboard his "Straight Talk Express" campaign bus amid Monday's market meltdown. "That's the committee that oversights our economy — transportation, science, telecommunications, airlines — all of the factors that drive our economy."
Draw out, and he distances himself from the administration of the Republican president who has endorsed him.
"Too many firms on Wall Street have been able to count on casual oversight by regulatory agencies in Washington. And there are so many of those regulators that the responsibility for oversight is scattered, unfocused and ineffective," he told a rally crowd Tuesday in Tampa, Fla.
There are even times when McCain does both — squeeze in and draw out — in the same thought.
It sounds the note he hopes voters will hear on Election Day, that of the experienced newcomer.
"I know how to fix it. I know how to fix the corruption," he said of the nation's economic problems during an appearance Tuesday on NBC's "Today" show. "I've been fighting it the whole time I've been in Congress."
EDITOR'S NOTE _ Glen Johnson has reported on local, state and national politics since 1985. He covers the Republican presidential campaign for The Associated Press.
By GLEN JOHNSON – 6 hours ago
VIENNA, Ohio (AP) — John McCain embraces and expels Washington like an accordion player belting out a song.
Squeeze in and he touts his vast knowledge of the capital city. Draw out and he casts himself a reformer bent on changing its ways.
It's a remarkable dichotomy echoed throughout the Republican establishment, as a party that's held the White House for the past eight years tries to retain its grip in what has shaped up as a change election.
None other than the current president's brother has shown the GOP's willingness to deny the past as it looks to the future.
"Reform becomes contagious," former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush said at a McCain town hall meeting this week in Orlando. "If you start to dream bigger dreams and you start challenging the basic assumptions, you can change how things work, and we've done it in Florida, and the Good Lord knows we need to do it in Washington, D.C., and John McCain is the right guy at the right time to make that happen."
The Good Lord knows we need reform in Washington?
Did George W. Bush disown his younger brother after that close call with the hanging chads in 2000? Is Jeb harboring a grudge after those stories about how the Bush family expected him — not George — to follow their father as president? Did the Democrats control the White House for the past eight years, or both chambers of Congress for the first six of them?
No, Republicans did.
McCain has long considered himself a political maverick, and there's no doubt that the Arizona senator has bucked the system — especially later in his career.
A guy who was so close to the establishment that he once had his own number in the Keating Five scandal over time has challenged the institutions of Congress with campaign finance legislation and other reform measures.
A character so prominent in his party he could credibly run for its 2000 presidential nomination was enough of a bipartisan figure that Democrat John Kerry considered McCain as a running mate during the 2004 election.
This time around, though, McCain is projecting a dual image: the outside insider. A 25-year veteran of the House and Senate, a white man like all the rest of the country's presidents to date, McCain is trying to fend off a 44-year-old, first-term senator angling to become the first black to reach the Oval Office.
It's prompted almost melodic speechmaking and statements.
Squeeze in, and he's the new capital tour guide for his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.
"I can't wait to introduce her to Washington, D.C. I can't wait," he said to cheers Monday in Jacksonville.
Draw out, and he's never set foot in the city himself.
"The word's going out, my friends: The old-boy network, the pork-barrelers, the earmarkers, my friends, the word is, `Change is coming,'" McCain said. "There's two mavericks coming to Washington, and we're going to shake it up."
Squeeze in, and he's got the Washington skill set needed to right the country's Wall Street woes.
"I was the chairman on the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation for six years," he told reporters aboard his "Straight Talk Express" campaign bus amid Monday's market meltdown. "That's the committee that oversights our economy — transportation, science, telecommunications, airlines — all of the factors that drive our economy."
Draw out, and he distances himself from the administration of the Republican president who has endorsed him.
"Too many firms on Wall Street have been able to count on casual oversight by regulatory agencies in Washington. And there are so many of those regulators that the responsibility for oversight is scattered, unfocused and ineffective," he told a rally crowd Tuesday in Tampa, Fla.
There are even times when McCain does both — squeeze in and draw out — in the same thought.
It sounds the note he hopes voters will hear on Election Day, that of the experienced newcomer.
"I know how to fix it. I know how to fix the corruption," he said of the nation's economic problems during an appearance Tuesday on NBC's "Today" show. "I've been fighting it the whole time I've been in Congress."
EDITOR'S NOTE _ Glen Johnson has reported on local, state and national politics since 1985. He covers the Republican presidential campaign for The Associated Press.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
OBAMA RETOOLING AFTER PALIN BOUNCE
Obama: Retooling after the Palin bounce Posted:
Tuesday, September 16, 2008 9:27 AM by Domenico Montanaro
The retooling of the Obama message is the focus of this Washington Post story: "After a string of tactical successes by McCain and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, over the past two weeks, the Obama campaign sought to regain its footing on Monday. The shift followed a series of internal meetings, including a rare Sunday evening session at the campaign's Chicago headquarters that Obama attended. Advisers reinforced the division of labor in the days ahead: Obama will articulate the campaign's broader message of ‘change’ and outline how the Democratic ticket will govern, while Biden will deliver attacks against the GOP ticket, drawing on his 30-year-old relationship with McCain to undercut the Arizona senator's standing, especially among working-class voters."
More: "The Obama campaign is seeking to address a range of festering problems, including the candidate's persistent underperformance among female voters, especially the older ones. It rolled out a women's outreach effort Monday, led by scores of prominent female entrepreneurs, athletes and politicians, including former secretary of state Madeleine K. Albright, cosmetics entrepreneur Bobbi Brown and Yahoo! Inc. President Sue Decker.”
“The women will act as surrogates for Obama, advocating his support for issues such as equal pay, expansion of family leave and reduction of health care costs. Prominent women also are flooding the airwaves on Obama's behalf, including Sen. Claire McCaskill (Mo.), Govs. Janet Napolitano of Arizona and Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, and Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (Fla.), a former Hillary Rodham Clinton backer."
Time's Grunwald looks at the issue of race for Obama -- particularly in the Rust Belt states -- and concludes that he should not listen to those telling him to get angry. "Obama is probably wise to ignore the liberals who keep begging him to drop his air of unflappability and start taking Republican scalps. White America already embraces black celebrities, even ‘flashy’ ones. But it has never really warmed up to an angry one."
While McCain has received a lot of scrutiny for false or misleading ads, the Washington Post argues that Obama’s advertisement hitting McCain for ex-lobbyists working in his campaign is unfair because it says that adviser Charlie Black “lobbies for oil companies,” when he actually LOBBIED for them. “It is fair for the Obama campaign to draw attention to the fact that McCain is surrounded by advisers who ‘have lobbied’ for special interests in the past. (The McCainites point out that some of Obama's advisers are also former lobbyists.) Use of the present tense is out of bounds, however.”
Tuesday, September 16, 2008 9:27 AM by Domenico Montanaro
The retooling of the Obama message is the focus of this Washington Post story: "After a string of tactical successes by McCain and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, over the past two weeks, the Obama campaign sought to regain its footing on Monday. The shift followed a series of internal meetings, including a rare Sunday evening session at the campaign's Chicago headquarters that Obama attended. Advisers reinforced the division of labor in the days ahead: Obama will articulate the campaign's broader message of ‘change’ and outline how the Democratic ticket will govern, while Biden will deliver attacks against the GOP ticket, drawing on his 30-year-old relationship with McCain to undercut the Arizona senator's standing, especially among working-class voters."
More: "The Obama campaign is seeking to address a range of festering problems, including the candidate's persistent underperformance among female voters, especially the older ones. It rolled out a women's outreach effort Monday, led by scores of prominent female entrepreneurs, athletes and politicians, including former secretary of state Madeleine K. Albright, cosmetics entrepreneur Bobbi Brown and Yahoo! Inc. President Sue Decker.”
“The women will act as surrogates for Obama, advocating his support for issues such as equal pay, expansion of family leave and reduction of health care costs. Prominent women also are flooding the airwaves on Obama's behalf, including Sen. Claire McCaskill (Mo.), Govs. Janet Napolitano of Arizona and Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, and Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (Fla.), a former Hillary Rodham Clinton backer."
Time's Grunwald looks at the issue of race for Obama -- particularly in the Rust Belt states -- and concludes that he should not listen to those telling him to get angry. "Obama is probably wise to ignore the liberals who keep begging him to drop his air of unflappability and start taking Republican scalps. White America already embraces black celebrities, even ‘flashy’ ones. But it has never really warmed up to an angry one."
While McCain has received a lot of scrutiny for false or misleading ads, the Washington Post argues that Obama’s advertisement hitting McCain for ex-lobbyists working in his campaign is unfair because it says that adviser Charlie Black “lobbies for oil companies,” when he actually LOBBIED for them. “It is fair for the Obama campaign to draw attention to the fact that McCain is surrounded by advisers who ‘have lobbied’ for special interests in the past. (The McCainites point out that some of Obama's advisers are also former lobbyists.) Use of the present tense is out of bounds, however.”
Monday, September 15, 2008
Michelle Obama Blogger
Michelle Obama, Blogger
15 Sep 2008 07:14 pm
Well, sort of.
Turns out that she's been contributing a post to BlogHer about once a month. Her topic today is "Fighting for Equal Pay." The posts are well-written, but they're a bit too campaign-language-y. That said, the BlogHer community seems to be pretty psyched about the posts, and more posts, I am told, are in the works.
Here's hoping that the campaign lets Michelle Obama be Michelle Obama -- as opposed to "Michelle Obama."
15 Sep 2008 07:14 pm
Well, sort of.
Turns out that she's been contributing a post to BlogHer about once a month. Her topic today is "Fighting for Equal Pay." The posts are well-written, but they're a bit too campaign-language-y. That said, the BlogHer community seems to be pretty psyched about the posts, and more posts, I am told, are in the works.
Here's hoping that the campaign lets Michelle Obama be Michelle Obama -- as opposed to "Michelle Obama."
COLIN POWELL UNDECIDED
UNDECIDED VOTER
Monday, September 15th, 2008
The former GOP Secretary of State tells a group of D.C. students the election of an African-American president “would be electrifying” but he hasn’t settled on either candidate for his vote.
“At the same time [I have to] make a judgment here on which would be best for America
Monday, September 15th, 2008
The former GOP Secretary of State tells a group of D.C. students the election of an African-American president “would be electrifying” but he hasn’t settled on either candidate for his vote.
“At the same time [I have to] make a judgment here on which would be best for America
PALIN-OBSESSED PHASE MIGHT BE OVER
WashPost’s Balz writes the Palin-obsessed “phase of the campaign may have ended” as the debate shifts to fundamentals.
Key Passages from WashPost on Candidates’ Response to Economy“Even before the triple-header of bad news — Lehman Brother’s bankruptcy, Merrill Lynch’s sale to Bank of America and the probable restructuring of insurance giant AIG — the economy was the top issue on the minds of the voters. But over the past two weeks, other issues — Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin the most obvious — have dominated the political discussion. That phase of the campaign may have ended.”
“The debate now likely will shift to fundamentals. Who will voters trust to lead the country out of this problem and who do they believe has a plausible plan for doing so? What matters now is how McCain and Obama respond to the latest evidence of an economy still struggling to overcome the damage inflicted by the real estate and home mortgage crises. Up to now, neither has truly won the confidence of voters.”
“The challenge for McCain and Obama is to help people understand what has happened. The shocks have come from many directions this year. The home mortgage crisis and the wave of foreclosures hit from one direction. Rising world oil prices — and with them higher prices at the gas pump and for the coming winter’s supply of home heating oil — seemingly came from another.”
Key Passages from WashPost on Candidates’ Response to Economy“Even before the triple-header of bad news — Lehman Brother’s bankruptcy, Merrill Lynch’s sale to Bank of America and the probable restructuring of insurance giant AIG — the economy was the top issue on the minds of the voters. But over the past two weeks, other issues — Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin the most obvious — have dominated the political discussion. That phase of the campaign may have ended.”
“The debate now likely will shift to fundamentals. Who will voters trust to lead the country out of this problem and who do they believe has a plausible plan for doing so? What matters now is how McCain and Obama respond to the latest evidence of an economy still struggling to overcome the damage inflicted by the real estate and home mortgage crises. Up to now, neither has truly won the confidence of voters.”
“The challenge for McCain and Obama is to help people understand what has happened. The shocks have come from many directions this year. The home mortgage crisis and the wave of foreclosures hit from one direction. Rising world oil prices — and with them higher prices at the gas pump and for the coming winter’s supply of home heating oil — seemingly came from another.”
Women Voters
Obama Lays Out Plans To Woo Women Voters: Forget Palin, Focus On Equal Pay
stumble digg reddit del.ico.us news trust mixx.com September 15, 2008 03:18 PM
During a conference call with national female supporters on Monday, Barack Obama and his aides outlined a comprehensive strategy to target female supporters who could be on the fence between his and John McCain's candidacy.
The plan included intense focus on McCain's opposition to equal pay legislation, which aides to Obama believe resonates beyond female voters; sending out prominent female surrogates to serve as political "ambassadors"; limiting focus on Gov. Sarah Palin in favor of McCain himself; and breaking through the media's propensity to focus on conflicts and gaffes.
"We have got a lot of work to do and I can't do it without your help," Obama explained on a conference call with national female supporters. "In recent weeks, we have seen Republicans up to their election year tricks. In his campaign ads, John McCain and Sarah Palin - I'm being generous here - distorted my record. They inflated their own. They ran an ad accusing me of promoting teaching sex to kindergartners when in fact the bill called for insuring that our children learn how to protect themselves from sexual abuse. That is one of the more egregious examples. And with all these antics I'm going to need all of you on the call to set the record straight."
"All of you, as prominent women that the American people listen to," the Democratic nominee continued, "are going to be some of our most important ambassadors in this process. To the extent we can get people to pay attention to choice involved on issues like health care, the Supreme Court, pay equity, I am absolutely confident we will win. But we are going to have to cut through a whole lot of noise and the media's propensity to cover scandal, gaffe, polls or attacks."
The National Women Leaders Conference Call came as part of a greater effort on behalf of the Obama campaign to solidify a portion of the electorate that, with McCain's choice of Palin as VP, seems more up for grabs than at any previous time in this election.
A Hill Democrat told the Huffington Post that Speaker Nancy Pelosi will spearhead a press conference with other female lawmakers this week focusing on equal pay legislation. In addition, the Obama campaign on Monday rolled out the endorsements of "hundreds of national women leaders in fields ranging from business to women's rights, from astronauts to athletes, from former governors to cabinet secretaries." The list includes Stacey Snider, Chairman of DreamWorks, Linda Chavez-Thompson, Executive Vice President Emerita, AFL-CIO, and Olympic gold-medalist Dominique Dawes.
Speaking on the phone with many of these individuals, Obama implored them to start reaching out on their own to help recruit female support. "Don't wait for our call," he said. "I need you to talk to your colleagues get on the radio, write op-eds in the newspapers, talk about what is really at stake in this election."
There were several issues on which the campaign suggested these pseudo-surrogates focus. Equal pay, opposition to choice, and the economy were some of them -- Sarah Palin was not.
"I know we are getting a little distracted by discussion about Sarah Palin, but I think it is important for all of us to focus on Sen. McCain," said Dana Singiser, a strategist for Obama. "Ultimately, of course, he will be president, he will be choosing Supreme Court justices, he will be steering the federal government, and we know a lot about him and where he stands on issues that are important to women. The contrast between John McCain's record and his positions and Sen. Obama's really could not be any more stark. I go back to equal pay because, given where we are with the economy, we are finding with the polling that pocket book issues really are what is top of mind for women voters. Whether we are talking about jobs or health care or gas prices, this is what women voters and really all voters are concerned about."
stumble digg reddit del.ico.us news trust mixx.com September 15, 2008 03:18 PM
During a conference call with national female supporters on Monday, Barack Obama and his aides outlined a comprehensive strategy to target female supporters who could be on the fence between his and John McCain's candidacy.
The plan included intense focus on McCain's opposition to equal pay legislation, which aides to Obama believe resonates beyond female voters; sending out prominent female surrogates to serve as political "ambassadors"; limiting focus on Gov. Sarah Palin in favor of McCain himself; and breaking through the media's propensity to focus on conflicts and gaffes.
"We have got a lot of work to do and I can't do it without your help," Obama explained on a conference call with national female supporters. "In recent weeks, we have seen Republicans up to their election year tricks. In his campaign ads, John McCain and Sarah Palin - I'm being generous here - distorted my record. They inflated their own. They ran an ad accusing me of promoting teaching sex to kindergartners when in fact the bill called for insuring that our children learn how to protect themselves from sexual abuse. That is one of the more egregious examples. And with all these antics I'm going to need all of you on the call to set the record straight."
"All of you, as prominent women that the American people listen to," the Democratic nominee continued, "are going to be some of our most important ambassadors in this process. To the extent we can get people to pay attention to choice involved on issues like health care, the Supreme Court, pay equity, I am absolutely confident we will win. But we are going to have to cut through a whole lot of noise and the media's propensity to cover scandal, gaffe, polls or attacks."
The National Women Leaders Conference Call came as part of a greater effort on behalf of the Obama campaign to solidify a portion of the electorate that, with McCain's choice of Palin as VP, seems more up for grabs than at any previous time in this election.
A Hill Democrat told the Huffington Post that Speaker Nancy Pelosi will spearhead a press conference with other female lawmakers this week focusing on equal pay legislation. In addition, the Obama campaign on Monday rolled out the endorsements of "hundreds of national women leaders in fields ranging from business to women's rights, from astronauts to athletes, from former governors to cabinet secretaries." The list includes Stacey Snider, Chairman of DreamWorks, Linda Chavez-Thompson, Executive Vice President Emerita, AFL-CIO, and Olympic gold-medalist Dominique Dawes.
Speaking on the phone with many of these individuals, Obama implored them to start reaching out on their own to help recruit female support. "Don't wait for our call," he said. "I need you to talk to your colleagues get on the radio, write op-eds in the newspapers, talk about what is really at stake in this election."
There were several issues on which the campaign suggested these pseudo-surrogates focus. Equal pay, opposition to choice, and the economy were some of them -- Sarah Palin was not.
"I know we are getting a little distracted by discussion about Sarah Palin, but I think it is important for all of us to focus on Sen. McCain," said Dana Singiser, a strategist for Obama. "Ultimately, of course, he will be president, he will be choosing Supreme Court justices, he will be steering the federal government, and we know a lot about him and where he stands on issues that are important to women. The contrast between John McCain's record and his positions and Sen. Obama's really could not be any more stark. I go back to equal pay because, given where we are with the economy, we are finding with the polling that pocket book issues really are what is top of mind for women voters. Whether we are talking about jobs or health care or gas prices, this is what women voters and really all voters are concerned about."
FIRED OFFICIAL--TRUTH NOT TOLD
Fired Official: Governor Did Not Tell the Truth to ABC
Walt Monegan Says He Was Called to Gov.'s Office Over a "Private Family Matter"
By RHONDA SCHWARTZ and JUSTIN ROOD--ABC NEWS
September 15, 2008—
"She's not telling the truth when she told ABC neither she nor her husband pressured me to fire Trooper Wooten," said Walt Monegan, the Alaskan official whose dismissal by Sarah Palin is the focus of a state investigation known as "Troopergate". "And she's not telling the truth to the media about her reasons for firing me."
In an exclusive interview with ABC News.com, former Alaska Public Safety Commissioner Walt Monegan said he resisted pressure by the First Couple to re-open an old case against a state trooper, who was in a hotly contested divorce and custody battle with the Governor's sister Molly.
Alaskan lawmakers are investigating whether Palin and her husband used the power of the Governor's office to conduct a personal vendetta against their former brother-in-law, whose behavior during the 2005 divorce was described by the Palin family as " threatening."
In a 20/20 interview, Palin told ABC's Charles Gibson she dismissed Monegan for poor job performance and that neither she nor her husband pressured Monegan to fire State Trooper Wooten. "We never did. I never pressured him to hire or fire anybody," Palin said.
But Monegan told ABC News.com he was summoned to a meeting with Todd Palin in December 2006, shortly after Sarah Palin became governor.
"I was called to her Anchorage formal Governor's office to talk with Todd Palin about an issue that was a private family matter," recounted Monegan. Todd became "upset," Monegan recalled, when told the allegations had already been investigated and the case would not be re-opened.
"When Sarah later called to tell me the same thing, I thought to myself, 'I may not be long for this job.'" But, Monegan said, he stood by his position. "I held the public trust. As Chief, I was responsible."
Governor Palin initially agreed to "cooperate fully" with the Alaska state legislative investigation but since being chosen as John McCain's running mate both she and her husband have refused to testify voluntarily. Friday the legislature issued a subpoena for Todd Palin.
Monegan said he tried to persuade the first couple to drop the matter. "As a cop for 35 years I'm pretty familiar with issues that come up in divorce cases," and said his argument to both Todd and Sarah was, "if this was so egregious, why didn't you bring it up sooner? Why did you wait until several years later?"
Monegan, who gave sworn testimony behind closed doors for nearly eight hours last week, said he also provided the State's investigator with copies of e-mails he received from the Governor in which she referred in disparaging terms to her former brother-in-law.
"This is not a 'he said she said' situation. Others were contacted by Todd and Sarah as well," according to Monegan, who said he was confident the investigation would find adequate documentation to corroborate his testimony.
The former Public Safety Commissioner also strongly defended his job performance in response to Palin's complaints about his work to ABC's Gibson.
"After two years he wasn't meeting the goals I wanted met in that area of public service, there were a lot of things we were lacking and a lot of goals weren't being met." Palin said on 20/20.
"No goals were conveyed to me by the Governor at any time," said Monegan.
"All of the Commissioners who worked for the Governor would say the same. She was preoccupied with her pipeline proposal," Monegan said. "All of us were waiting to hear what goals she would set for our departments."
Monegan said the Governor never sat down to talk with him about public safety priorities. "She met with us perhaps four times," he said, "and half the time the Governor was busy on her Blackberry. In one meeting she took a phone call and left the room, directing us to talk to her aide."
The only goals that were set for his department, said Monegan, "we incorporated through the Department of Public Safety Strategic Plan, which we ran past her, she approved and we posted on our website."
The former Commissioner said under his leadership the department was pursuing several new initiatives, but that efforts were slowed down by union contract negotiations.
Monegan stressed he was not upset and did hold any animosity toward his former boss. "I like the lady," said Monegan. "I bear her no animosity, I admire her intelligence and initiative. I wish I could respect her more for her integrity."
Meanwhile the Governor has requested her own investigation of Monegan's dismissal by the State Personnel Board and Anchorage attorney Thomas V. Von Flein has been retained to represent the First Couple in the state legislature's investigating committee.
When asked how he came to represent the Palins, Von Flein told ABC News he could not reveal who hired him due to attorney client privilege but that "he worked through word of mouth."
Von Flein said he questioned the validity of the legislature's subpoena power and expressed his concerns that the committee's investigation had become "a highly politicized investigation conducted in secret " reminiscent of "the McCarthy era."
Copyright © 2008 ABC News Internet Ventures
Walt Monegan Says He Was Called to Gov.'s Office Over a "Private Family Matter"
By RHONDA SCHWARTZ and JUSTIN ROOD--ABC NEWS
September 15, 2008—
"She's not telling the truth when she told ABC neither she nor her husband pressured me to fire Trooper Wooten," said Walt Monegan, the Alaskan official whose dismissal by Sarah Palin is the focus of a state investigation known as "Troopergate". "And she's not telling the truth to the media about her reasons for firing me."
In an exclusive interview with ABC News.com, former Alaska Public Safety Commissioner Walt Monegan said he resisted pressure by the First Couple to re-open an old case against a state trooper, who was in a hotly contested divorce and custody battle with the Governor's sister Molly.
Alaskan lawmakers are investigating whether Palin and her husband used the power of the Governor's office to conduct a personal vendetta against their former brother-in-law, whose behavior during the 2005 divorce was described by the Palin family as " threatening."
In a 20/20 interview, Palin told ABC's Charles Gibson she dismissed Monegan for poor job performance and that neither she nor her husband pressured Monegan to fire State Trooper Wooten. "We never did. I never pressured him to hire or fire anybody," Palin said.
But Monegan told ABC News.com he was summoned to a meeting with Todd Palin in December 2006, shortly after Sarah Palin became governor.
"I was called to her Anchorage formal Governor's office to talk with Todd Palin about an issue that was a private family matter," recounted Monegan. Todd became "upset," Monegan recalled, when told the allegations had already been investigated and the case would not be re-opened.
"When Sarah later called to tell me the same thing, I thought to myself, 'I may not be long for this job.'" But, Monegan said, he stood by his position. "I held the public trust. As Chief, I was responsible."
Governor Palin initially agreed to "cooperate fully" with the Alaska state legislative investigation but since being chosen as John McCain's running mate both she and her husband have refused to testify voluntarily. Friday the legislature issued a subpoena for Todd Palin.
Monegan said he tried to persuade the first couple to drop the matter. "As a cop for 35 years I'm pretty familiar with issues that come up in divorce cases," and said his argument to both Todd and Sarah was, "if this was so egregious, why didn't you bring it up sooner? Why did you wait until several years later?"
Monegan, who gave sworn testimony behind closed doors for nearly eight hours last week, said he also provided the State's investigator with copies of e-mails he received from the Governor in which she referred in disparaging terms to her former brother-in-law.
"This is not a 'he said she said' situation. Others were contacted by Todd and Sarah as well," according to Monegan, who said he was confident the investigation would find adequate documentation to corroborate his testimony.
The former Public Safety Commissioner also strongly defended his job performance in response to Palin's complaints about his work to ABC's Gibson.
"After two years he wasn't meeting the goals I wanted met in that area of public service, there were a lot of things we were lacking and a lot of goals weren't being met." Palin said on 20/20.
"No goals were conveyed to me by the Governor at any time," said Monegan.
"All of the Commissioners who worked for the Governor would say the same. She was preoccupied with her pipeline proposal," Monegan said. "All of us were waiting to hear what goals she would set for our departments."
Monegan said the Governor never sat down to talk with him about public safety priorities. "She met with us perhaps four times," he said, "and half the time the Governor was busy on her Blackberry. In one meeting she took a phone call and left the room, directing us to talk to her aide."
The only goals that were set for his department, said Monegan, "we incorporated through the Department of Public Safety Strategic Plan, which we ran past her, she approved and we posted on our website."
The former Commissioner said under his leadership the department was pursuing several new initiatives, but that efforts were slowed down by union contract negotiations.
Monegan stressed he was not upset and did hold any animosity toward his former boss. "I like the lady," said Monegan. "I bear her no animosity, I admire her intelligence and initiative. I wish I could respect her more for her integrity."
Meanwhile the Governor has requested her own investigation of Monegan's dismissal by the State Personnel Board and Anchorage attorney Thomas V. Von Flein has been retained to represent the First Couple in the state legislature's investigating committee.
When asked how he came to represent the Palins, Von Flein told ABC News he could not reveal who hired him due to attorney client privilege but that "he worked through word of mouth."
Von Flein said he questioned the validity of the legislature's subpoena power and expressed his concerns that the committee's investigation had become "a highly politicized investigation conducted in secret " reminiscent of "the McCarthy era."
Copyright © 2008 ABC News Internet Ventures
THE RACE AS IT STANDS TODAY, 9/15/08
Familiar Ground May Be Election's Deciding Factor
By Dan Balz and Peter Slevin
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, September 15, 2008; A01
When the general election began a few months ago, Barack Obama's advisers talked optimistically about dramatically redrawing the electoral map. Their optimism remains, but as the campaign heads into its final 50 days, strategists for both parties say the election is likely to be decided on mostly familiar ground.
As in the past two campaigns, four big states -- Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and Florida -- are expected to dominate the attention of the candidates. Democrats won the first two in both 2000 and 2004; Republicans won the other two both times.
Additionally, there will be battles in a group of smaller states now seen by the campaigns as most vulnerable to shifting sides. Five states that went for President Bush in 2004 are now high on the list of potential Obama states: Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. Two states that went for Sen. John F. Kerry are top targets of McCain's campaign: Wisconsin and New Hampshire.
Both candidates brought their campaigns to New Hampshire this weekend, signaling the importance of a state with just four electoral votes. Four years ago, the Granite State was one of three states in the country that switched allegiance between the campaigns of 2000 and 2004.
Obama advisers say they still have their sights on a number of Republican strongholds, among them Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana, Montana and North Dakota. With the benefit of a massive fundraising operation -- the Obama campaign announced Sunday it raised a record $66 million in August -- and huge numbers of volunteers, the Democratic nominee has the luxury to compete in states this fall that past campaigns would have had to abandon.
But Republicans and some Democratic strategists not associated with the Obama campaign say the overall electoral map has become more familiar in the past few weeks. One reason is McCain's selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate. Her choice has helped to harden some of the red-and-blue political divisions of past years, dampening Obama's hopes of picking off some solid GOP states.
Reviewing the state of play a week after the Republican convention ended, McCain pollster Bill McInturff declared: "Obama's campaign's effort to extend the electoral map has largely failed. We once again have a pretty conventional and expected list of tossup states that will decide the election."
Steve Hildebrand, deputy campaign manager for Obama, disagreed, saying there has been no contraction of the Democratic nominee's ambitions to provide as many avenues as possible to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election. "Other than Alaska being much less likely to be a competitive state because of Sarah Palin, we have not seen any reason to believe that we should shrink the map," he said.
But Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist who played key roles in the last two presidential elections, said of the electoral map, "I think it's going to look a lot like 2000 and 2004."
Palin's selection has brought a surge of energy and enthusiasm to a Republican base that had been tepid toward McCain, and Democrats say they have seen the effect in polls that have shown McCain gaining ground since the end of his convention.
"I think one of the things driving the national polls is that the red states are redder," said David Axelrod, one of Obama's closest advisers. "In the battleground states, the race has held pretty firm."
Several Obama advisers said over the weekend that they are beginning to see McCain's post-convention bounce dissipate. McCain's advisers, however, said that although some softening is likely, they believe Palin's impact already has been real.
A McCain adviser argued that the impact of Palin is being felt both in GOP strongholds and in battleground states, especially in rural areas, where she has made a very positive first impression. If that holds, it could complicate Obama's hopes of picking off Ohio or Missouri. He won the latter in the primaries, but it voted for Bush in the past two elections.
Privately, some Obama advisers see Missouri as very difficult to win, unless they can massively mobilize new and existing voters in the St. Louis and Kansas City areas.
Obama's campaign still sees opportunities in states such as Georgia and North Carolina, principally because of their efforts to register new voters and through a massive organizational effort to turn out registered voters who stayed home in the past. The campaign has spent almost $3 million on television ads in Georgia and has seen voter rolls grow by almost 400,000 since the beginning of the year.
"Do we think it's going to be one of the harder states to win? Yes," Hildebrand said. "Do we think it's winnable? Yes."
McCain's campaign has invested little in the state, believing that if Georgia goes for Obama in November, the election will be a landslide victory for the Democrat. McCain's team has husbanded its more limited resources and intends to remain disciplined in focusing on states it believes will decide the election.
"If we have to worry about Georgia in mid- to late October, we're going to get shellacked," a McCain adviser said.
But McCain's team says resources alone may not be enough for Obama. They note that the Democratic nominee spent more than $7 million on ads in Florida over the summer, at a time when their campaign was not advertising in the state, and did not significantly improve his standing.
Kerry won 252 electoral votes in 2004, so Obama needs to pick off some Bush states to win the election. The two likeliest are Iowa and New Mexico, although that would still leave him six short of 270.
Obama campaigned for a year in Iowa before winning the caucuses there last January while McCain largely ignored the state during nomination battles in both 2000 and 2008. A Des Moines Register poll released Sunday showed Obama leading McCain in Iowa 52 percent to 40 percent.
New Hampshire, however, could go the other way. McCain won the GOP primaries there in 2000 and in 2008 and is better known in New Hampshire than perhaps anywhere outside of his home state of Arizona. Obama campaigned hard there last year, but still lost the Democratic primary in January to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.
New Hampshire took a sharp turn toward the Democrats two years ago, but McCain's popularity there could offset that advantage. New Hampshire strategists said over the weekend that independent voters, whom both McCain and Obama courted during their respective primaries, will decide the outcome in November, particularly the more than 100,000 independents who did not vote in either primary.
Obama hopes to pick off two other Western states to edge himself over the 270 mark, with his best chance seen in Colorado rather than Nevada. Colorado also has moved toward the Democrats since 2004, and Obama is counting on his organizational strength to pull him through there. But Republicans see Palin as someone who could help significantly in the Western states.
Virginia, too, has trended toward the Democrats in recent elections, making it ripe for a possible switch despite backing Republicans in every presidential race since 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson carried it. McCain's team sees holding onto the state's 13 electoral votes as critically important.
McCain has fewer opportunities for switching states, but his first priority is to hold onto the two big battlegrounds of Florida and Ohio. His campaign has growing confidence that Florida will remain in their column. One Obama adviser, who declined to be identified in order to speak candidly, expressed pessimism about Florida but said the longer the Democrats can keep the state competitive, the more McCain may be forced to spend to defend it.
Ohio remains competitive because of the economy, but there are signs that Palin could help boost the vote in rural areas, where Obama was very weak in the primaries.
Republicans targeted Pennsylvania and Michigan in 2000 and 2004, only to come up short. Obama holds narrow leads in both, according to public polls. McCain's team sees opportunities, particularly in Pennsylvania, but both states could be difficult for the Republicans.
Another possible switcher for McCain is Wisconsin. Democrats won it in both 2000 and 2004, but it was one of the closest states in the nation both times. A poll yesterday in the Minneapolis Star Tribune showed a deadlocked race in Minnesota, but the McCain campaign is cautious about its chances there.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company
By Dan Balz and Peter Slevin
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, September 15, 2008; A01
When the general election began a few months ago, Barack Obama's advisers talked optimistically about dramatically redrawing the electoral map. Their optimism remains, but as the campaign heads into its final 50 days, strategists for both parties say the election is likely to be decided on mostly familiar ground.
As in the past two campaigns, four big states -- Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio and Florida -- are expected to dominate the attention of the candidates. Democrats won the first two in both 2000 and 2004; Republicans won the other two both times.
Additionally, there will be battles in a group of smaller states now seen by the campaigns as most vulnerable to shifting sides. Five states that went for President Bush in 2004 are now high on the list of potential Obama states: Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. Two states that went for Sen. John F. Kerry are top targets of McCain's campaign: Wisconsin and New Hampshire.
Both candidates brought their campaigns to New Hampshire this weekend, signaling the importance of a state with just four electoral votes. Four years ago, the Granite State was one of three states in the country that switched allegiance between the campaigns of 2000 and 2004.
Obama advisers say they still have their sights on a number of Republican strongholds, among them Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana, Montana and North Dakota. With the benefit of a massive fundraising operation -- the Obama campaign announced Sunday it raised a record $66 million in August -- and huge numbers of volunteers, the Democratic nominee has the luxury to compete in states this fall that past campaigns would have had to abandon.
But Republicans and some Democratic strategists not associated with the Obama campaign say the overall electoral map has become more familiar in the past few weeks. One reason is McCain's selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate. Her choice has helped to harden some of the red-and-blue political divisions of past years, dampening Obama's hopes of picking off some solid GOP states.
Reviewing the state of play a week after the Republican convention ended, McCain pollster Bill McInturff declared: "Obama's campaign's effort to extend the electoral map has largely failed. We once again have a pretty conventional and expected list of tossup states that will decide the election."
Steve Hildebrand, deputy campaign manager for Obama, disagreed, saying there has been no contraction of the Democratic nominee's ambitions to provide as many avenues as possible to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the election. "Other than Alaska being much less likely to be a competitive state because of Sarah Palin, we have not seen any reason to believe that we should shrink the map," he said.
But Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist who played key roles in the last two presidential elections, said of the electoral map, "I think it's going to look a lot like 2000 and 2004."
Palin's selection has brought a surge of energy and enthusiasm to a Republican base that had been tepid toward McCain, and Democrats say they have seen the effect in polls that have shown McCain gaining ground since the end of his convention.
"I think one of the things driving the national polls is that the red states are redder," said David Axelrod, one of Obama's closest advisers. "In the battleground states, the race has held pretty firm."
Several Obama advisers said over the weekend that they are beginning to see McCain's post-convention bounce dissipate. McCain's advisers, however, said that although some softening is likely, they believe Palin's impact already has been real.
A McCain adviser argued that the impact of Palin is being felt both in GOP strongholds and in battleground states, especially in rural areas, where she has made a very positive first impression. If that holds, it could complicate Obama's hopes of picking off Ohio or Missouri. He won the latter in the primaries, but it voted for Bush in the past two elections.
Privately, some Obama advisers see Missouri as very difficult to win, unless they can massively mobilize new and existing voters in the St. Louis and Kansas City areas.
Obama's campaign still sees opportunities in states such as Georgia and North Carolina, principally because of their efforts to register new voters and through a massive organizational effort to turn out registered voters who stayed home in the past. The campaign has spent almost $3 million on television ads in Georgia and has seen voter rolls grow by almost 400,000 since the beginning of the year.
"Do we think it's going to be one of the harder states to win? Yes," Hildebrand said. "Do we think it's winnable? Yes."
McCain's campaign has invested little in the state, believing that if Georgia goes for Obama in November, the election will be a landslide victory for the Democrat. McCain's team has husbanded its more limited resources and intends to remain disciplined in focusing on states it believes will decide the election.
"If we have to worry about Georgia in mid- to late October, we're going to get shellacked," a McCain adviser said.
But McCain's team says resources alone may not be enough for Obama. They note that the Democratic nominee spent more than $7 million on ads in Florida over the summer, at a time when their campaign was not advertising in the state, and did not significantly improve his standing.
Kerry won 252 electoral votes in 2004, so Obama needs to pick off some Bush states to win the election. The two likeliest are Iowa and New Mexico, although that would still leave him six short of 270.
Obama campaigned for a year in Iowa before winning the caucuses there last January while McCain largely ignored the state during nomination battles in both 2000 and 2008. A Des Moines Register poll released Sunday showed Obama leading McCain in Iowa 52 percent to 40 percent.
New Hampshire, however, could go the other way. McCain won the GOP primaries there in 2000 and in 2008 and is better known in New Hampshire than perhaps anywhere outside of his home state of Arizona. Obama campaigned hard there last year, but still lost the Democratic primary in January to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.
New Hampshire took a sharp turn toward the Democrats two years ago, but McCain's popularity there could offset that advantage. New Hampshire strategists said over the weekend that independent voters, whom both McCain and Obama courted during their respective primaries, will decide the outcome in November, particularly the more than 100,000 independents who did not vote in either primary.
Obama hopes to pick off two other Western states to edge himself over the 270 mark, with his best chance seen in Colorado rather than Nevada. Colorado also has moved toward the Democrats since 2004, and Obama is counting on his organizational strength to pull him through there. But Republicans see Palin as someone who could help significantly in the Western states.
Virginia, too, has trended toward the Democrats in recent elections, making it ripe for a possible switch despite backing Republicans in every presidential race since 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson carried it. McCain's team sees holding onto the state's 13 electoral votes as critically important.
McCain has fewer opportunities for switching states, but his first priority is to hold onto the two big battlegrounds of Florida and Ohio. His campaign has growing confidence that Florida will remain in their column. One Obama adviser, who declined to be identified in order to speak candidly, expressed pessimism about Florida but said the longer the Democrats can keep the state competitive, the more McCain may be forced to spend to defend it.
Ohio remains competitive because of the economy, but there are signs that Palin could help boost the vote in rural areas, where Obama was very weak in the primaries.
Republicans targeted Pennsylvania and Michigan in 2000 and 2004, only to come up short. Obama holds narrow leads in both, according to public polls. McCain's team sees opportunities, particularly in Pennsylvania, but both states could be difficult for the Republicans.
Another possible switcher for McCain is Wisconsin. Democrats won it in both 2000 and 2004, but it was one of the closest states in the nation both times. A poll yesterday in the Minneapolis Star Tribune showed a deadlocked race in Minnesota, but the McCain campaign is cautious about its chances there.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company
Sunday, September 14, 2008
OBAMA ON GOOD MORNING AMERICA, MONDAY, 9/15
OBAMA WILL BE ON GOOD MORNING AMERICA, MONDAY, 9/15 ON CHANNEL 13 STARTING AT 7:00AM
OBAMA RAISES $66 MILLION, 500,000 NEW DONORS
Obama Raised a Record $66 Million in August
By Jeff Zeleny
Senator Barack Obama raised $66 million during August, aides said Sunday, recording the most prolific fund-raising month of his presidential candidacy.
David Plouffe, the Obama campaign manager, said a half-million new donors signed up to give money to Mr. Obama. He said the campaign’s bank account had $77 million at the end of last month.
“The 500,000 new donors to the Obama campaign demonstrate just how strongly the American people are looking to kick the special interests out and change Washington,” Mr. Plouffe said in a statement, adding that more than 2.5 million people have now made contributions to the campaign in the last 19 months.
While the figure is a considerable sum of money, it is a baseline for what Mr. Obama has to raise every month to meet his campaign’s goals. He is not taking public financing – an $84 million cash infusion from the United States Treasury – so his fund-raising burden is considerably higher than his Republican rivals.
For Mr. Obama, the $66 million tally in August came as he formally accepted the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination in a speech viewed on television by about 40 million people. Fund-raising also picked up in the final few days of the month as Senator John McCain announced his running-mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, aides said, but most of those contributions came in September.
Bill Burton, a spokesman for Mr. Obama, said Sunday that the campaign would not file its report to the Federal Election Commission until Sept. 20, so a more precise analysis of how the money was raised will not be possible until then.
His previous monthly fund-raising record of $55 million came in February.
This week, the fund-raising continues in earnest for the Obama campaign, with large and small events across the country. Tonight, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton will appear at a $1,000-per-plate dessert reception at a home in Wilmette, Ill., to benefit Mr. Obama.
On Tuesday, Mr. Obama travels to Los Angeles for back-to-back money-raising galas, followed by similar events at the end of the week in Florida.
By Jeff Zeleny
Senator Barack Obama raised $66 million during August, aides said Sunday, recording the most prolific fund-raising month of his presidential candidacy.
David Plouffe, the Obama campaign manager, said a half-million new donors signed up to give money to Mr. Obama. He said the campaign’s bank account had $77 million at the end of last month.
“The 500,000 new donors to the Obama campaign demonstrate just how strongly the American people are looking to kick the special interests out and change Washington,” Mr. Plouffe said in a statement, adding that more than 2.5 million people have now made contributions to the campaign in the last 19 months.
While the figure is a considerable sum of money, it is a baseline for what Mr. Obama has to raise every month to meet his campaign’s goals. He is not taking public financing – an $84 million cash infusion from the United States Treasury – so his fund-raising burden is considerably higher than his Republican rivals.
For Mr. Obama, the $66 million tally in August came as he formally accepted the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination in a speech viewed on television by about 40 million people. Fund-raising also picked up in the final few days of the month as Senator John McCain announced his running-mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, aides said, but most of those contributions came in September.
Bill Burton, a spokesman for Mr. Obama, said Sunday that the campaign would not file its report to the Federal Election Commission until Sept. 20, so a more precise analysis of how the money was raised will not be possible until then.
His previous monthly fund-raising record of $55 million came in February.
This week, the fund-raising continues in earnest for the Obama campaign, with large and small events across the country. Tonight, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton will appear at a $1,000-per-plate dessert reception at a home in Wilmette, Ill., to benefit Mr. Obama.
On Tuesday, Mr. Obama travels to Los Angeles for back-to-back money-raising galas, followed by similar events at the end of the week in Florida.
The Neocons' Manchurian Candidate
The Neocons' Manchurian Candidate?
14 Sep 2008 03:36 pm
They cannot win on the arguments; indeed, they have been proven so catastrophically wrong on the arguments that they have decided not even to fight this campaign on issues but on personalities. But they do care about power, and this Telegraph story suggests that Bill Kristol was a powerful motor behind the absurdity of Sarah Palin's candidacy:
Sources in the McCain camp, the Republican Party and Washington think tanks say Mrs Palin was identified as a potential future leader of the neoconservative cause in June 2007. That was when the annual summer cruise organised by the right-of-centre Weekly Standard magazine docked in Juneau, the Alaskan state capital, and the pundits on board took tea with Governor Palin...
Now many believe that the "neocons", whose standard bearer in government, Vice President Dick Cheney, lost out in Washington power struggles to the more moderate defence secretary Robert Gates and secretary of state Condoleezza Rice, last year are seeking to mould Mrs Palin to renew their influence.
A former Republican White House official, who now works at the American Enterprise Institute, a bastion of Washington neoconservatism, admitted: "She's bright and she's a blank page. She's going places and it's worth going there with her."
Asked if he sees her as a "project", the former official said: "Your word, not mine, but I wouldn't disagree with the sentiment."
In so many ways, Palin is the apotheosis of the neocon dream. She siphons the religious fanaticism of the base to support war on behalf of what the neocons believe is in Israel's and America's interests. The goal is war against Iran and Russia. And a further deepening of the occupation of Iraq.
14 Sep 2008 03:36 pm
They cannot win on the arguments; indeed, they have been proven so catastrophically wrong on the arguments that they have decided not even to fight this campaign on issues but on personalities. But they do care about power, and this Telegraph story suggests that Bill Kristol was a powerful motor behind the absurdity of Sarah Palin's candidacy:
Sources in the McCain camp, the Republican Party and Washington think tanks say Mrs Palin was identified as a potential future leader of the neoconservative cause in June 2007. That was when the annual summer cruise organised by the right-of-centre Weekly Standard magazine docked in Juneau, the Alaskan state capital, and the pundits on board took tea with Governor Palin...
Now many believe that the "neocons", whose standard bearer in government, Vice President Dick Cheney, lost out in Washington power struggles to the more moderate defence secretary Robert Gates and secretary of state Condoleezza Rice, last year are seeking to mould Mrs Palin to renew their influence.
A former Republican White House official, who now works at the American Enterprise Institute, a bastion of Washington neoconservatism, admitted: "She's bright and she's a blank page. She's going places and it's worth going there with her."
Asked if he sees her as a "project", the former official said: "Your word, not mine, but I wouldn't disagree with the sentiment."
In so many ways, Palin is the apotheosis of the neocon dream. She siphons the religious fanaticism of the base to support war on behalf of what the neocons believe is in Israel's and America's interests. The goal is war against Iran and Russia. And a further deepening of the occupation of Iraq.
Saturday, September 13, 2008
OBAMA MAY HAVE BANNER FUNDRAISING MONTH
OBAMA MAY HAVE BANNER AUGUST FUNDRAISING MONTHS
Saturday, September 13th, 2008
Bloomberg: Aides privately say they’re keeping a low profile so donors don’t get complacent, suggest last month’s contributions will top February’s one-month record of $55 million.
Adds Palin is motivating Democratic donors as well as Republicans.
Saturday, September 13th, 2008
Bloomberg: Aides privately say they’re keeping a low profile so donors don’t get complacent, suggest last month’s contributions will top February’s one-month record of $55 million.
Adds Palin is motivating Democratic donors as well as Republicans.
Friday, September 12, 2008
SATURDAY READING
The McCain campaign incorrectly fills out a bunch of absentee ballot requests, and the Democratic Ohio Secretary of State throws them out.
Douglas Holtz-Eakin -- McCain's top policy adviser -- told Fortune columnist Matthew Miller that Republicans can't say they're open to raising taxes because it would "dilute the brand."
Biden's son quits lobbying.
The AP slams McCain-Palin, saying the Straight Talk Express has detoured into doublespeak.
McCain's voter contact operation in Virginia picks up steam.
Mark Penn thinks the media embarrassed themselves with Palin.
A new ad from former Clinton admakers appears in a local New York race, with familiar music.
The Jerusalem Post plumbs Palin's Jewish problem.
Joe Biden didn't give much to charity.
Eli Sanders prescribes some campaign-related medication for Democrats.
The Obama campaign dispatches Texas supporters to New Mexico.
Steve Cohen says the GOP is using "community organizer" as racial code.
Goldfarb releases the hounds on Anne Kornblut.
And Gallup reports that white women aren't shifting to McCain at an especially fast clip.
Douglas Holtz-Eakin -- McCain's top policy adviser -- told Fortune columnist Matthew Miller that Republicans can't say they're open to raising taxes because it would "dilute the brand."
Biden's son quits lobbying.
The AP slams McCain-Palin, saying the Straight Talk Express has detoured into doublespeak.
McCain's voter contact operation in Virginia picks up steam.
Mark Penn thinks the media embarrassed themselves with Palin.
A new ad from former Clinton admakers appears in a local New York race, with familiar music.
The Jerusalem Post plumbs Palin's Jewish problem.
Joe Biden didn't give much to charity.
Eli Sanders prescribes some campaign-related medication for Democrats.
The Obama campaign dispatches Texas supporters to New Mexico.
Steve Cohen says the GOP is using "community organizer" as racial code.
Goldfarb releases the hounds on Anne Kornblut.
And Gallup reports that white women aren't shifting to McCain at an especially fast clip.
OBAMA CANCELS APPEARANCE ON SNL
BECAUSE OF HURRICANE IKE, OBAMA HAS CANCELLED HIS APPEARANCE ON SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE THIS WEEKEND. NO WORD IF HE'LL RESCHEDULE AN APPEARANCE BEFORE THE ELECTION.
Pres. Clinton's advice to Obama
Bill Clinton's advice to Barack Obama
By: John F. Harris
September 12, 2008 08:26 AM EST
There they were in Harlem Thursday, the 42nd president and the Democrat who hopes to be the 44th, for a two-hour lunch hour chat at Bill Clinton’s office.
It is not at all clear that Barack Obama particularly wants Clinton’s advice about how to win the presidency—after all, he kept the former president at a cool distance, with just occasional phone calls, for months—but many Democrats believe it is increasingly clear that he could use it.
The fact that Obama is even with or behind John McCain despite so many favorable trends for Democrats shows that there is still plenty he could learn from the master—the political Houdini who is the only Democrat since Franklin D. Roosevelt to win two terms.
We do know that Clinton was happy to share his thoughts. He recently shared ten minutes of “here’s what Obama needs to do” wisdom while standing in the popcorn line with someone he just met at a New York movie theater, according to one Democrat privy to the conversation.
The Clinton-Obama meeting was closed. We don’t know for sure what they said.
But it is not hard to make an educated guess. Here, based on 16 years experience watching Bill Clinton campaign—and interviews with a half-dozen veterans of his political teams—is a reasonably safe bet about his campaign advice to Barack Obama:
1. Don’t make this about you.
Clinton is always skeptical of politicians who try to win races on the basis of their life story or supposed personal virtues. Those can be nice side dishes (“The Man from Hope”) but they can’t be the main entrée. Voters just don’t care that much about you, they care about themselves and what you will do for them. Clinton believes, plausibly, that this is why he emerged from sex scandals and all manner of other controversies with his job approval ratings intact.
“What Bill Clinton always told me is, ‘If we make this about their lives instead of mine, we’ll be better off,” recalled Paul Begala, who served as strategist in the 1992 election and the second-term White House. “It’s always about the voters, never about the candidates.”
What’s more, the politics of biography can turn in an instant, as happened to John F. Kerry in 2004 when what was supposed to be an asset—Kerry’s Vietnam service—was turned into a distraction and even liability by the Swift Boat Veterans.
Clinton thinks Obama has erred by putting too much focus on himself, and on his supposedly transformational brand of politics—it’s too airy, and puts him at risk of being branded a hypocrite when, as inevitably happens, he needs to play rough.
2. Define yourself through policies—yours and theirs.
Clinton would often dismiss proposed speech drafts handed him by his staff writers with a mocking phrase, “Words, words words!”
He has never thought much of Obama’s rhetoric-driven campaign.
While Obama has plenty of policy proposals, there are not many that he has managed to make recognizable signatures, the way Clinton promised to “end welfare as we know it” in 1992.
Most people know Obama claims to represent “Change you can believe in.” But Clinton believes people won’t believe him—or any politician—unless change is defined with specificity. That means describing, in language that sounds plausible rather than partisan, what you believe in versus what the other guy believes in.
3. Have more fun.
Bill and Hillary Clinton are both obsessed with how—as they see it—Republicans have perfected the art of the bogus attack, the distracting wedge issue, “the politics of personal destruction.”
From the Clinton vantage point, both Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 lost when they allowed Republicans to get under their skins and hijack their public images.
Obama has hinted that he believes that, too, and has signaled that he will fight back hard.
But that is not as easy at it might sound. A candidate needs to do more than just complain about the unfairness of it all, as when Obama this week shouted “enough!” and denounced “lies, outrage and swift-boat politics.”
The trick is counter-punching without looking rattled, and without letting your opponents set the agenda of the conversation. Though he did not always follow his own advice, Clinton believes humor is one tool that can help a politician connect with audiences and convey toughness rather than whininess.
Mark Penn, the Clintons’ long-time pollster and strategist, said Obama may have listened too closely to people urging him to “fight back, fight back.”
“He’s got to learn how to completely eviscerate the guy with a smile,” he said.
4. Make the election about something big.
It’s a mistake, Clinton believes, for a presidential nominee of one party to be arguing about the vice presidential nominee of the other party, as Obama has been over Sarah Palin in recent days.
The best way for Obama to convince people he’s ready to be president is by talking about ideas that sound presidential.
During both his presidential runs, Clinton gave major speeches at Georgetown University that were not partisan or even in the strict sense political—they were wide-ranging discourses about where the United States stood at that moment in history.
Clinton believes Obama is on losing terrain if he allows the election to be about pigs and lipstick. Obama needs to soar above that by talking about large themes like energy and global warming, and how to harness the opportunities of a global economy.
5. Spend more time speaking to your opponents.
Most Democrats, Clinton believes, spend too much time enjoying the cheers of the home crowd—and not enough trying to persuade people who do not already agree with them.
One of his favorite rhetorical tactics is to appear to be describing an opponent’s ideas in ways that sound perfectly fair and reasonable—as a prelude to why the opponent is dead wrong.
Successful politicians, he believes, look for opportunities to speak to skeptical audiences. Clinton went to New Hampshire to talk to gun owners—even though many hunters there were furious over passage of a crime bill that hunters feared would take away their guns. “All our guys in Washington, thought I was crazier than the March Hare,” Clinton once told me and Mark Halperin. “And they said, ‘Well, you don’t want to talk about this.’ I said, ‘Oh, yes, I do.’”
Obama’s convention speech in Denver was a spirited performance that thrilled Democrats, but did not have enough passages aimed at people who don’t already support him. What’s more, Obama has not taken enough positions that make clear he is not a standard-issue Democrat.
6. Don’t take Hillary voters for granted.
Obama’s strategists believed that they did not have to worry that much about Hillary Clinton’s women backers, because they figured that most of them were liberal, abortion-rights supporters who will vote for the Democrat even if the nominee was not their first choice.
That was probably true for about two-thirds of those voters, according to one Clinton strategist’s appraisal of polling data. But another one-third of Clinton’s women supporters were more conservative-tilting working-class women, who were drawn to Clinton because they admired her pluck—and these voters are now a key target group for McCain-Palin.
7. Stop smoking whatever it is you are smoking.
In his cool treatment of both Clintons over the summer, and in the way he allowed expectations among Democrats and the news media to build, Obama has acted as if he were on a glide path to a relatively easy victory.
Clinton knows this attitude is delusional. Someone who grew up in Arkansas as the state—and much of the South—was growing more conservative, can never forget how hard it is for Democrats to win in what for the past two generations has been a center-right part of the country. Democrats have only won more than 50 percent in a presidential election there twice since 1944. Republicans have done it seven times.
One important thing to remember: Obama has never faced a serious race against a Republican. His important victories in Illinois and this year have all been against other Democrats in nomination battles.
Some Clinton allies say this may tend to warp his perspective about how politics works, and what kind of issues and stories matter in a presidential context. Bottom line: it does not matter who is getting better coverage in the New York Times.
“This is a new experience for Obama – facing a Republican who will do and say things far different from the Democrats he has faced – Republicans don’t care what Frank Rich, Maureen Dowd or establishment media has to say about them,” said Penn.
8. And while you are it, give me an apology.
The meeting in Harlem was friendly, and Obama could have hardly hoped for a more lavish endorsement than he got from Clinton at the Democratic convention in Denver.
But he errs if he thinks the former president does not still have resentments toward Obama, and that those resentments might not surface at unwelcome times, in the view of many former aides.
Simply put, Clinton will never be fully at peace with Obama until the Democratic nominee makes clear—in emphatic words, in public—that Clinton is not in any way racist, and did not try to “play the race card” during the Democratic nomination contest, as some commentators have suggested.
There’s no question that Clinton was impolitic in comparing Obama’s victory in South Carolina to Jesse Jackson’s victory 20 years earlier. But Clinton is understandably outraged that people would argue this remark negated a career-long commitment to racial equality—and that Obama stood by mute while such charges were made.
Clinton swallowed his medicine with his speech for Obama in Denver. Obama has still not fully swallowed his by making a public defense of Clinton on race.
Harris, the editor in chief of Politico, has written two books about Bill Clinton and his politics, “The Survivor: Bill Clinton in the White House,” and “The Way to Win; Taking the White House in 2008.”
By: John F. Harris
September 12, 2008 08:26 AM EST
There they were in Harlem Thursday, the 42nd president and the Democrat who hopes to be the 44th, for a two-hour lunch hour chat at Bill Clinton’s office.
It is not at all clear that Barack Obama particularly wants Clinton’s advice about how to win the presidency—after all, he kept the former president at a cool distance, with just occasional phone calls, for months—but many Democrats believe it is increasingly clear that he could use it.
The fact that Obama is even with or behind John McCain despite so many favorable trends for Democrats shows that there is still plenty he could learn from the master—the political Houdini who is the only Democrat since Franklin D. Roosevelt to win two terms.
We do know that Clinton was happy to share his thoughts. He recently shared ten minutes of “here’s what Obama needs to do” wisdom while standing in the popcorn line with someone he just met at a New York movie theater, according to one Democrat privy to the conversation.
The Clinton-Obama meeting was closed. We don’t know for sure what they said.
But it is not hard to make an educated guess. Here, based on 16 years experience watching Bill Clinton campaign—and interviews with a half-dozen veterans of his political teams—is a reasonably safe bet about his campaign advice to Barack Obama:
1. Don’t make this about you.
Clinton is always skeptical of politicians who try to win races on the basis of their life story or supposed personal virtues. Those can be nice side dishes (“The Man from Hope”) but they can’t be the main entrée. Voters just don’t care that much about you, they care about themselves and what you will do for them. Clinton believes, plausibly, that this is why he emerged from sex scandals and all manner of other controversies with his job approval ratings intact.
“What Bill Clinton always told me is, ‘If we make this about their lives instead of mine, we’ll be better off,” recalled Paul Begala, who served as strategist in the 1992 election and the second-term White House. “It’s always about the voters, never about the candidates.”
What’s more, the politics of biography can turn in an instant, as happened to John F. Kerry in 2004 when what was supposed to be an asset—Kerry’s Vietnam service—was turned into a distraction and even liability by the Swift Boat Veterans.
Clinton thinks Obama has erred by putting too much focus on himself, and on his supposedly transformational brand of politics—it’s too airy, and puts him at risk of being branded a hypocrite when, as inevitably happens, he needs to play rough.
2. Define yourself through policies—yours and theirs.
Clinton would often dismiss proposed speech drafts handed him by his staff writers with a mocking phrase, “Words, words words!”
He has never thought much of Obama’s rhetoric-driven campaign.
While Obama has plenty of policy proposals, there are not many that he has managed to make recognizable signatures, the way Clinton promised to “end welfare as we know it” in 1992.
Most people know Obama claims to represent “Change you can believe in.” But Clinton believes people won’t believe him—or any politician—unless change is defined with specificity. That means describing, in language that sounds plausible rather than partisan, what you believe in versus what the other guy believes in.
3. Have more fun.
Bill and Hillary Clinton are both obsessed with how—as they see it—Republicans have perfected the art of the bogus attack, the distracting wedge issue, “the politics of personal destruction.”
From the Clinton vantage point, both Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 lost when they allowed Republicans to get under their skins and hijack their public images.
Obama has hinted that he believes that, too, and has signaled that he will fight back hard.
But that is not as easy at it might sound. A candidate needs to do more than just complain about the unfairness of it all, as when Obama this week shouted “enough!” and denounced “lies, outrage and swift-boat politics.”
The trick is counter-punching without looking rattled, and without letting your opponents set the agenda of the conversation. Though he did not always follow his own advice, Clinton believes humor is one tool that can help a politician connect with audiences and convey toughness rather than whininess.
Mark Penn, the Clintons’ long-time pollster and strategist, said Obama may have listened too closely to people urging him to “fight back, fight back.”
“He’s got to learn how to completely eviscerate the guy with a smile,” he said.
4. Make the election about something big.
It’s a mistake, Clinton believes, for a presidential nominee of one party to be arguing about the vice presidential nominee of the other party, as Obama has been over Sarah Palin in recent days.
The best way for Obama to convince people he’s ready to be president is by talking about ideas that sound presidential.
During both his presidential runs, Clinton gave major speeches at Georgetown University that were not partisan or even in the strict sense political—they were wide-ranging discourses about where the United States stood at that moment in history.
Clinton believes Obama is on losing terrain if he allows the election to be about pigs and lipstick. Obama needs to soar above that by talking about large themes like energy and global warming, and how to harness the opportunities of a global economy.
5. Spend more time speaking to your opponents.
Most Democrats, Clinton believes, spend too much time enjoying the cheers of the home crowd—and not enough trying to persuade people who do not already agree with them.
One of his favorite rhetorical tactics is to appear to be describing an opponent’s ideas in ways that sound perfectly fair and reasonable—as a prelude to why the opponent is dead wrong.
Successful politicians, he believes, look for opportunities to speak to skeptical audiences. Clinton went to New Hampshire to talk to gun owners—even though many hunters there were furious over passage of a crime bill that hunters feared would take away their guns. “All our guys in Washington, thought I was crazier than the March Hare,” Clinton once told me and Mark Halperin. “And they said, ‘Well, you don’t want to talk about this.’ I said, ‘Oh, yes, I do.’”
Obama’s convention speech in Denver was a spirited performance that thrilled Democrats, but did not have enough passages aimed at people who don’t already support him. What’s more, Obama has not taken enough positions that make clear he is not a standard-issue Democrat.
6. Don’t take Hillary voters for granted.
Obama’s strategists believed that they did not have to worry that much about Hillary Clinton’s women backers, because they figured that most of them were liberal, abortion-rights supporters who will vote for the Democrat even if the nominee was not their first choice.
That was probably true for about two-thirds of those voters, according to one Clinton strategist’s appraisal of polling data. But another one-third of Clinton’s women supporters were more conservative-tilting working-class women, who were drawn to Clinton because they admired her pluck—and these voters are now a key target group for McCain-Palin.
7. Stop smoking whatever it is you are smoking.
In his cool treatment of both Clintons over the summer, and in the way he allowed expectations among Democrats and the news media to build, Obama has acted as if he were on a glide path to a relatively easy victory.
Clinton knows this attitude is delusional. Someone who grew up in Arkansas as the state—and much of the South—was growing more conservative, can never forget how hard it is for Democrats to win in what for the past two generations has been a center-right part of the country. Democrats have only won more than 50 percent in a presidential election there twice since 1944. Republicans have done it seven times.
One important thing to remember: Obama has never faced a serious race against a Republican. His important victories in Illinois and this year have all been against other Democrats in nomination battles.
Some Clinton allies say this may tend to warp his perspective about how politics works, and what kind of issues and stories matter in a presidential context. Bottom line: it does not matter who is getting better coverage in the New York Times.
“This is a new experience for Obama – facing a Republican who will do and say things far different from the Democrats he has faced – Republicans don’t care what Frank Rich, Maureen Dowd or establishment media has to say about them,” said Penn.
8. And while you are it, give me an apology.
The meeting in Harlem was friendly, and Obama could have hardly hoped for a more lavish endorsement than he got from Clinton at the Democratic convention in Denver.
But he errs if he thinks the former president does not still have resentments toward Obama, and that those resentments might not surface at unwelcome times, in the view of many former aides.
Simply put, Clinton will never be fully at peace with Obama until the Democratic nominee makes clear—in emphatic words, in public—that Clinton is not in any way racist, and did not try to “play the race card” during the Democratic nomination contest, as some commentators have suggested.
There’s no question that Clinton was impolitic in comparing Obama’s victory in South Carolina to Jesse Jackson’s victory 20 years earlier. But Clinton is understandably outraged that people would argue this remark negated a career-long commitment to racial equality—and that Obama stood by mute while such charges were made.
Clinton swallowed his medicine with his speech for Obama in Denver. Obama has still not fully swallowed his by making a public defense of Clinton on race.
Harris, the editor in chief of Politico, has written two books about Bill Clinton and his politics, “The Survivor: Bill Clinton in the White House,” and “The Way to Win; Taking the White House in 2008.”
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)