TOP POLLSTER SEES CLOSE ELECTION

(As an aside--Malone also says Obama could open this up for a landslide, but McCain couldn't. I see Obama in the final weeks/days opening up a landslide. Ann)


Top Pollster Sees Close US Presidential Race
By Jim Malone Washington05 August 2008
A new Associated Press poll gives Democrat Barack Obama a six-point lead over Republican John McCain in the U.S. presidential race. But, a leading pollster tells VOA he expects a close race for the White House in November. VOA National correspondent Jim Malone reports from Washington.

Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew Research Center and a leading pollster both in the United States and abroad, said on VOA's Press Conference USA program, to air August 9, that the presidential race between Senators Obama and McCain likely will remain close right up to Election Day in November.

"My guess is that it will stay close. I think there is a potential for Obama to open up a wide lead. I can't imagine McCain opening up a wide lead. I can imagine McCain winning, but if he wins it is going to be a close race. There is some potential for Obama to open it up. This one has been so unexpected that it is wise to stay out of the prediction business," he said.

Like most other pollsters, Kohut gives Obama a lead at the moment. But Kohut says Obama's advantage is not as great as one would expect given the Democratic Party's general advantage in this year's election campaign.

"In our poll, Obama has about a five point lead over Senator McCain. That is much closer than we would have guessed a Republican would be running against a Democrat six months ago because all of the advantages in this election are with the Democrats. There is great unhappiness with President Bush. Less than one in five Americans are happy with national conditions. Generally presidential elections are referendums on the times and the Republicans represent the status quo and the Democrats the change," he said.