The One Gap

This is from Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic Monthly talking about the TIME poll. (please see earlier blog for TIME's poll).

The Gap -- And There Really Is Only One Gap

06 Aug 2008 04:41 pm

It's white males. If McCain wins them by double digits, he wins the election (probably). If Obama keeps the margin to 10 points or less, then he wins the election (probably). Time's latest polling gives McCain a seven point lead in that group with leanrers factored in. Even with a 3% percentage point racial premium fudge factor, it helps explain why Obama still leads. McCain is underperforming right now among white males.