POST-CONVENTION MAP AND QUESTIONS FOR SARAH

NBC: First thoughts: Post-convention map
Posted: Monday, September 08, 2008 9:16 AM
by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: First Thoughts, 2008
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** The post-convention map: After the conventions and the candidates’ VP picks, Obama still maintains a slight electoral lead, according to NBC’s map. Obama has 228 electoral votes to McCain’s 200, with 110 electoral votes in the toss-up column. The changes from last month, when Obama held a 217-189 advantage: Missouri moves from toss-up to Lean McCain, Pennsylvania moves from toss-up to Lean Obama, and Wisconsin moves from Lean Obama to toss-up. We came VERY close to moving North Carolina to toss-up, but until we see one decent poll showing Obama ahead, we're not there yet. Every North Carolina poll has had McCain ahead, though it is worth noting the RNC and the campaign are finally up in the Tar Heel state with paid media.

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (190 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MN, PA (38 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, MI, NV, NM, NH, OH, VA, WI (110 votes)
Lean McCain: AK, GA, IN, MO, MT, NC, ND, SD (64 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (136 votes)

*** Show Me the help: Indeed, there may not be a state where Palin helps more than a place like Missouri. Looking at 2006, one of the closest Senate races was in Missouri, where Claire McCaskill over-performed in some key non-urban counties, and it’s likely she succeeded with culturally conservative women who are also economic populists. These women have probably been sitting in undecided right now in a place like Missouri. And this where Palin comes in: She can keep these soft Republican women from crossing the aisle. It's no mistake why both McCain and Palin are in Missouri today. By the way, the place where the GOP ticket is campaigning today -- Lee’s Summit -- is a place that McCaskill carried in '06 and Bush carried in '04. The McCain folks would like to lock down the Show Me State in September. Trust us, if McCain is still campaigning in Missouri in October, things aren't looking good for the GOP.

QUESTIONS FOR SARAH

Let's hope Charlie Gibson asks these--but you know she's being briefed for all of these and more. Ann

From Chuck Todd--Here are some questions she might expect in her first interview, with an assist from moi--(the librarian question)

Without mentioning her supervision of the Alaskan National Guard (a task all governors have), her state’s proximity to Russia, and her son’s military service, what qualifies her to be commander-in-chief in such turbulent times? How does she reconcile being a “reform” candidate with being under ethical investigation in her home state? Why did she originally back the infamous Bridge to Nowhere? Does she support Alaska not receiving a single additional earmark under a McCain Administration? (And if so, what would that mean economically for her home state?) Does she now agree with McCain’s opposition to drilling in ANWR?

Does she believe that the war in Iraq is “a task from God”? Does she support converting homosexuals into heterosexuals, as her church in Alaska promotes? And has her own personal family situation changed her views on family planning and sex education? She tried unsuccessfully to have the popular librarian removed when the librarian refused to ban some books. What were some of the books she wanted banned?