Viewers Guide to Election Night: Six Early States to Watch
November 03, 2008 8:39 AM
Here are the six states to watch between 7pm and 8pm tomorrow night:
Virginia and Indiana after the last polls close at 7pm, Ohio and North Carolina after 7:30pm, and then Pennsylvania and Florida after 8pm.
These are the canaries in the coal mine.
McCain campaign manager Rick Davis conceded on "This Week" that John McCain has to win five out of six of these states to have a viable path to the presidency.
He could get there by holding all of the Bush states -- Indiana, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina -- and losing Pennsylvania, and then Obama sacrificing Iowa.
But he will then need to secure Nevada and Colorado and all the rest of the Bush states later in the evening.
That puts him at 270.
Or, if McCain manages a long shot win in Pennsylvania, his possibilities open up.
He could then lose Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado, and still win. Or, he could lose Indiana in that scenario and still win.
But if in these early states Obama holds on to Pennsylvania and wins just one more -- any of the other five -- only a John McCain miracle later in the evening can deny Obama the White House.
--George Stephanopoulos
Monday, November 3, 2008
Polls--the day before
LATEST BATTLEGROUND NUMBERS
Monday, November 3rd, 2008
From Quinnipiac University poll:
FLORIDA: Obama 47, McCain 45
OHIO: Obama 50, McCain 43
PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 52, McCain 42
Dates conducted: Oct. 27-Nov. 2. Error margin: 2.3-2.5 points.
From WSJ/NBC News numbers:
Obama 51, McCain 43
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama is Where He Needs To Be, McCain is Not
Obama 50, McCain 43 Released: November 03, 2008
Monday, November 3rd, 2008
From Quinnipiac University poll:
FLORIDA: Obama 47, McCain 45
OHIO: Obama 50, McCain 43
PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 52, McCain 42
Dates conducted: Oct. 27-Nov. 2. Error margin: 2.3-2.5 points.
From WSJ/NBC News numbers:
Obama 51, McCain 43
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama is Where He Needs To Be, McCain is Not
Obama 50, McCain 43 Released: November 03, 2008
Friday, October 31, 2008
OBAMA INTERVIEW
Some of what Obama said on "On Air with Ryan Seacrest."
On Halloween:
“I'm gonna be a pumpkin ... Here's the problem -- this will be the first year where I don't personally take the girls out. The reason is because these days when I go out it becomes a big scene. Last year I wore a rubber mask and so people didn't know who I was and we were able to have a great time. This year even if I wear a rubber mask if I've got six Secret Service around me it probably attracts a little bit more."
On plans for Tuesday:
“I'll vote first thing in the morning, then take the girls to school probably. And then we will fly to a state fairly close to home that's a battleground state. I'll do some campaigning and handshaking and all that good stuff. And then come back and I will have my traditional election day basketball game. We started this tradition in Iowa and we've been doing it every Election Day since. Hopefully I won't brak my nose for the big night, get an elbow in the teeth.” After the game he'll have dinner with his family before heading to downtown Chicago to watch the results come in.
On McCain:
“I think that Sen. McCain is a decent man. You won't hear me go around saying he's a bad person. I think there's no doubt he's much closer to George Bush's philosophy than I am…If you think that what we've been doing is working, then John McCain's your choice.”
On visiting his ailing grandmother in Hawaii:
“Well, you know, obviously it was tough … She's not doing great. She's pretty sick. But I was glad that I did what I did which was to go her and see her and make sure I told her the only reason I'm doing what I'm doing is because of her. It's a pretty big deal for her, no doubt about it.”
On sleep:
“What happens is … if you do it often enough -- long enough -- you start being able to do things you didn't think you'd be able to do. You can manage on four hours of sleep…No matter how tough the situation is I will go to sleep.”
On the election:
"Whoever you're voting for … get out there and vote. This is one of those game changing elections, one of those defining moments … Probably the next 20 years is going to be be decided by where we are now ... I think what we really need to do is move in a new direction in terms of making health care affordable."
On Halloween:
“I'm gonna be a pumpkin ... Here's the problem -- this will be the first year where I don't personally take the girls out. The reason is because these days when I go out it becomes a big scene. Last year I wore a rubber mask and so people didn't know who I was and we were able to have a great time. This year even if I wear a rubber mask if I've got six Secret Service around me it probably attracts a little bit more."
On plans for Tuesday:
“I'll vote first thing in the morning, then take the girls to school probably. And then we will fly to a state fairly close to home that's a battleground state. I'll do some campaigning and handshaking and all that good stuff. And then come back and I will have my traditional election day basketball game. We started this tradition in Iowa and we've been doing it every Election Day since. Hopefully I won't brak my nose for the big night, get an elbow in the teeth.” After the game he'll have dinner with his family before heading to downtown Chicago to watch the results come in.
On McCain:
“I think that Sen. McCain is a decent man. You won't hear me go around saying he's a bad person. I think there's no doubt he's much closer to George Bush's philosophy than I am…If you think that what we've been doing is working, then John McCain's your choice.”
On visiting his ailing grandmother in Hawaii:
“Well, you know, obviously it was tough … She's not doing great. She's pretty sick. But I was glad that I did what I did which was to go her and see her and make sure I told her the only reason I'm doing what I'm doing is because of her. It's a pretty big deal for her, no doubt about it.”
On sleep:
“What happens is … if you do it often enough -- long enough -- you start being able to do things you didn't think you'd be able to do. You can manage on four hours of sleep…No matter how tough the situation is I will go to sleep.”
On the election:
"Whoever you're voting for … get out there and vote. This is one of those game changing elections, one of those defining moments … Probably the next 20 years is going to be be decided by where we are now ... I think what we really need to do is move in a new direction in terms of making health care affordable."
Thursday, October 30, 2008
THE ECONOMIST ENDORSES OBAMA
The Economist Endorses Obama, Trashes McCain
The omniscient voice pronounces from across the pond:
"....the Candidate McCain of the past six months has too often seemed the victim of political sorcery, his good features magically inverted, his bad ones exaggerated. The fiscal conservative who once tackled Mr Bush over his unaffordable tax cuts now proposes not just to keep the cuts, but to deepen them. The man who denounced the religious right as "agents of intolerance" now embraces theocratic culture warriors. The campaigner against ethanol subsidies (who had a better record on global warming than most Democrats) came out in favour of a petrol-tax holiday. It has not all disappeared: his support for free trade has never wavered. Yet rather than heading towards the centre after he won the nomination, Mr McCain moved to the right.
Meanwhile his temperament, always perhaps his weak spot, has been found wanting. Sometimes the seat-of-the-pants method still works: his gut reaction over Georgia--to warn Russia off immediately--was the right one. Yet on the great issue of the campaign, the financial crisis, he has seemed all at sea, emitting panic and indecision. Mr McCain has never been particularly interested in economics, but, unlike Mr Obama, he has made little effort to catch up or to bring in good advisers (Doug Holtz-Eakin being the impressive exception).
The choice of Sarah Palin epitomised the sloppiness. It is not just that she is an unconvincing stand-in, nor even that she seems to have been chosen partly for her views on divisive social issues, notably abortion. Mr McCain made his most important appointment having met her just twice.
Ironically, given that he first won over so many independents by speaking his mind, the case for Mr McCain comes down to a piece of artifice: vote for him on the assumption that he does not believe a word of what he has been saying. Once he reaches the White House, runs this argument, he will put Mrs Palin back in her box, throw away his unrealistic tax plan and begin negotiations with the Democratic Congress. That is plausible; but it is a long way from the convincing case that Mr McCain could have made. Had he become president in 2000 instead of Mr Bush, the world might have had fewer problems. But this time it is beset by problems, and Mr McCain has not proved that he knows how to deal with them.
The omniscient voice pronounces from across the pond:
"....the Candidate McCain of the past six months has too often seemed the victim of political sorcery, his good features magically inverted, his bad ones exaggerated. The fiscal conservative who once tackled Mr Bush over his unaffordable tax cuts now proposes not just to keep the cuts, but to deepen them. The man who denounced the religious right as "agents of intolerance" now embraces theocratic culture warriors. The campaigner against ethanol subsidies (who had a better record on global warming than most Democrats) came out in favour of a petrol-tax holiday. It has not all disappeared: his support for free trade has never wavered. Yet rather than heading towards the centre after he won the nomination, Mr McCain moved to the right.
Meanwhile his temperament, always perhaps his weak spot, has been found wanting. Sometimes the seat-of-the-pants method still works: his gut reaction over Georgia--to warn Russia off immediately--was the right one. Yet on the great issue of the campaign, the financial crisis, he has seemed all at sea, emitting panic and indecision. Mr McCain has never been particularly interested in economics, but, unlike Mr Obama, he has made little effort to catch up or to bring in good advisers (Doug Holtz-Eakin being the impressive exception).
The choice of Sarah Palin epitomised the sloppiness. It is not just that she is an unconvincing stand-in, nor even that she seems to have been chosen partly for her views on divisive social issues, notably abortion. Mr McCain made his most important appointment having met her just twice.
Ironically, given that he first won over so many independents by speaking his mind, the case for Mr McCain comes down to a piece of artifice: vote for him on the assumption that he does not believe a word of what he has been saying. Once he reaches the White House, runs this argument, he will put Mrs Palin back in her box, throw away his unrealistic tax plan and begin negotiations with the Democratic Congress. That is plausible; but it is a long way from the convincing case that Mr McCain could have made. Had he become president in 2000 instead of Mr Bush, the world might have had fewer problems. But this time it is beset by problems, and Mr McCain has not proved that he knows how to deal with them.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
TEXANS JOIN NYers
The Field: Texans Getting Out Out Of Texas To GOTV
Another small cog in the Obama campaign's massive get-out-the-vote machine. The campaign wants committed Obama volunteers in Texas to vote early, and then sign up for one of a number of bus tours to other battleground states. All travel and lodging expenses are paid for.
Team Buckeye: Austin to Ohio -- 10/31 to 11/05
Depart Austin, TX on Friday 10/31 at 12 pm
Depart Dallas, TX on Friday 10/31 at 4 pm
Arrive Cincinnati, OH on Saturday 11/01 Morning
Return Dallas, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Afternoon
Return Austin, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Evening
Team Simpson: Austin/Waco/Dallas to Missouri -- 10/31 to 11/05
Depart Austin, TX on Friday 10/31 at 7 pm
Depart Waco, TX on Friday 10/31 at 8 pm
Depart Dallas, TX on Friday 10/31 at 10 pm
Arrive Springfield, MO on Saturday 11/01 Morning
Return Dallas, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Afternoon
Return Waco, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Afternoon
Return Austin, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Evening
Team Riverwalk: San Antonio/Austin to New Mexico -- 10/31 to 11/05
Depart San Antonio, TX on Friday 10/31 at 6 pm
Depart Austin, TX on Friday 10/31 at 8 pm
Arrive Albuquerque, NM on Saturday 11/01 Morning
Return Austin, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Evening
Return San Antonio, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Evening
Another small cog in the Obama campaign's massive get-out-the-vote machine. The campaign wants committed Obama volunteers in Texas to vote early, and then sign up for one of a number of bus tours to other battleground states. All travel and lodging expenses are paid for.
Team Buckeye: Austin to Ohio -- 10/31 to 11/05
Depart Austin, TX on Friday 10/31 at 12 pm
Depart Dallas, TX on Friday 10/31 at 4 pm
Arrive Cincinnati, OH on Saturday 11/01 Morning
Return Dallas, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Afternoon
Return Austin, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Evening
Team Simpson: Austin/Waco/Dallas to Missouri -- 10/31 to 11/05
Depart Austin, TX on Friday 10/31 at 7 pm
Depart Waco, TX on Friday 10/31 at 8 pm
Depart Dallas, TX on Friday 10/31 at 10 pm
Arrive Springfield, MO on Saturday 11/01 Morning
Return Dallas, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Afternoon
Return Waco, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Afternoon
Return Austin, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Evening
Team Riverwalk: San Antonio/Austin to New Mexico -- 10/31 to 11/05
Depart San Antonio, TX on Friday 10/31 at 6 pm
Depart Austin, TX on Friday 10/31 at 8 pm
Arrive Albuquerque, NM on Saturday 11/01 Morning
Return Austin, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Evening
Return San Antonio, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Evening
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
FIRST LOOK AT OBAMACAST
The Obamacast (from Ben Smith of The Politico)
The Times gets a first look:
The trailer is heavy in strings, flags, presidential imagery and some Americana filmed by Davis Guggenheim, whose father was the campaign documentarian of Robert F. Kennedy. As the screen flashes scenes of suburban lawns, a freight train and Mr. Obama seated at a kitchen table with a group of white, apparently working-class voters, Mr. Obama says: “We’ve seen over the last eight years how decisions by a president can have a profound effect on the course of history and on American lives; much that’s wrong with our country goes back even farther than that.”
Then, while standing before a stately desk and an American flag, Mr. Obama, in a suit, says: “We’ve been talking about the same problems for decades and nothing is ever done to solve them. For the past 20 months, I’ve traveled the length of this country, and Michelle and I have met so many Americans who are looking for real and lasting change that makes a difference in their lives.”
There will also be a live section from a Florida rally.
Sounds gripping, no?
The Times gets a first look:
The trailer is heavy in strings, flags, presidential imagery and some Americana filmed by Davis Guggenheim, whose father was the campaign documentarian of Robert F. Kennedy. As the screen flashes scenes of suburban lawns, a freight train and Mr. Obama seated at a kitchen table with a group of white, apparently working-class voters, Mr. Obama says: “We’ve seen over the last eight years how decisions by a president can have a profound effect on the course of history and on American lives; much that’s wrong with our country goes back even farther than that.”
Then, while standing before a stately desk and an American flag, Mr. Obama, in a suit, says: “We’ve been talking about the same problems for decades and nothing is ever done to solve them. For the past 20 months, I’ve traveled the length of this country, and Michelle and I have met so many Americans who are looking for real and lasting change that makes a difference in their lives.”
There will also be a live section from a Florida rally.
Sounds gripping, no?
LA TIMES/BLOOMBERG POLL OF OHIO, FLORIDA
LA TIMES/BLOOMBERG
New Polls: Obama Ahead in Buckeye, Sunshine States
From LA Times/Bloomberg, among likely voters:
Ohio: Obama 49, McCain 40
Florida: Obama 50, McCain 43
New Polls: Obama Ahead in Buckeye, Sunshine States
From LA Times/Bloomberg, among likely voters:
Ohio: Obama 49, McCain 40
Florida: Obama 50, McCain 43
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