AS YOU KNOW, THIS IS PRESIDENT EISENHOWER'S GRANDDAUGHTER. IT'S INTERESTING, HER SISTER-IN-LAW, JULIE NIXON EISENHOWER (MARRIED TO HER BROTHER DAVID AND DAUGHTER OR PRESIDENT NIXON) HAS GIVEN THE MAXIMUM TO OBAMA. WHAT DO YOU SUPPOSE SUSAN'S GRANDFATHER AND JULIE'S FATHER WOULD BE THINKING? IT'D BE LIKE CAROLINE KENNEDY SUPPORTING MCCAIN!! TRY TO THINK OF THAT! ANN
Susan Eisenhower Quits The GOP BY ANDREW SULLIVAN
22 Aug 2008 05:46 pm
Understandably:
Hijacked by a relatively small few, the GOP of today bears no resemblance to Lincoln, Roosevelt or Eisenhower’s party, or many of the other Republican administrations that came after. In my grandparents’ time, the thrust of the party was rooted in: a respect for the constitution; the defense of civil liberties; a commitment to fiscal responsibility; the pursuit and stewardship of America’s interests abroad; the use of multilateral international engagement and “soft power”; the advancement of civil rights; investment in infrastructure; environmental stewardship; the promotion of science and its discoveries; and a philosophical approach focused squarely on the future.
As an independent I will now feel comfortable supporting people of any political party who reflect those core values.
I've never been a member of any political party, but I sure know I couldn't be a Republican these days. (END)
One thing I've admired about McCain is he never wanted to talk about his POW experience or make it a political advantage. But there are many things John McCain was in 2000 that I admired, but certainly don't now. He's now using the POW status like Rudy did 9/11 during the primaries. In fact, I remember Biden during one of the debates saying the only words Rudy knew were 9/11. Here's Andrew Sullivan's take on McCain's answers to problems now. Ann
How to tackle the important issues of the day:
Milk prices are too high
“This is a guy who didn’t have the luxury of milk for five and a half years -- in prison.”
We’re not doing enough to find alternative sources of energy
“This is a guy who lived in the dark for five and a half years -- in prison, with no light bulbs.”
Healthcare is too expensive
John McCain had little to no healthcare
Friday, August 22, 2008
SUNDAY NEWS SHOWS
THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE INTERESTED AND/OR HAVE THE TIME, THOUGHT YOU'D BE INTERESTED IN THE GUESTS FOR THE SUNDAY NEWS SHOWS--DAY BEFORE CONVENTION STARTS.
Meet the Press: Caroline Kennedy, Nancy Pelosi
Fox News Sunday: Govs. Kaine, Ritter, Obama campaign advisor Gibbs
Face the Nation: Govs. Sebelius, Rendell, Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr.
Late Edition: Sen. Casey, Gov. Napolitano, Sen. Jack Reed, Rep. Clyburn, former Clinton chair McAuliffe
This Week: Axelrod, Giuliani. Roundtable with Halperin, Will, Brazile, Roberts
Meet the Press: Caroline Kennedy, Nancy Pelosi
Fox News Sunday: Govs. Kaine, Ritter, Obama campaign advisor Gibbs
Face the Nation: Govs. Sebelius, Rendell, Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr.
Late Edition: Sen. Casey, Gov. Napolitano, Sen. Jack Reed, Rep. Clyburn, former Clinton chair McAuliffe
This Week: Axelrod, Giuliani. Roundtable with Halperin, Will, Brazile, Roberts
TIMING OF VP ANNOUNCEMENT
MSNBC WILL BE ON THE AIR TOMORROW (SATURDAY) AFTERNOON STARTING 1:00PM WITH THE ROLLOUT OF OBAMA'S VP EXPECTED AT 2:00PM.
Thursday, August 21, 2008
BROOKS LIKES BIDEN
After reading this, you'll like Biden also.
August 22, 2008
THE NEW YORK TIMES
Hoping It’s Biden
By DAVID BROOKS
Barack Obama has decided upon a vice-presidential running mate. And while I don’t know who it is as I write, for the good of the country, I hope he picked Joe Biden.
Biden’s weaknesses are on the surface. He has said a number of idiotic things over the years and, in the days following his selection, those snippets would be aired again and again.
But that won’t hurt all that much because voters are smart enough to forgive the genuine flaws of genuine people. And over the long haul, Biden provides what Obama needs:
Working-Class Roots. Biden is a lunch-bucket Democrat. His father was rich when he was young — played polo, cavorted on yachts, drove luxury cars. But through a series of bad personal and business decisions, he was broke by the time Joe Jr. came along. They lived with their in-laws in Scranton, Pa., then moved to a dingy working-class area in Wilmington, Del. At one point, the elder Biden cleaned boilers during the week and sold pennants and knickknacks at a farmer’s market on the weekends.
His son was raised with a fierce working-class pride — no one is better than anyone else. Once, when Joe Sr. was working for a car dealership, the owner threw a Christmas party for the staff. Just as the dancing was to begin, the owner scattered silver dollars on the floor and watched from above as the mechanics and salesmen scrambled about for them. Joe Sr. quit that job on the spot.
Even today, after serving for decades in the world’s most pompous workplace, Senator Biden retains an ostentatiously unpretentious manner. He campaigns with an army of Bidens who seem to emerge by the dozens from the old neighborhood in Scranton. He has disdain for privilege and for limousine liberals — the mark of an honest, working-class Democrat.
Democrats in general, and Obama in particular, have trouble connecting with working-class voters, especially Catholic ones. Biden would be the bridge.
Honesty. Biden’s most notorious feature is his mouth. But in his youth, he had a stutter. As a freshman in high school he was exempted from public speaking because of his disability, and was ridiculed by teachers and peers. His nickname was Dash, because of his inability to finish a sentence.
He developed an odd smile as a way to relax his facial muscles (it still shows up while he’s speaking today) and he’s spent his adulthood making up for any comments that may have gone unmade during his youth.
Today, Biden’s conversational style is tiresome to some, but it has one outstanding feature. He is direct. No matter who you are, he tells you exactly what he thinks, before he tells it to you a second, third and fourth time.
Presidents need someone who will be relentlessly direct. Obama, who attracts worshippers, not just staff members, needs that more than most.
Loyalty. Just after Biden was elected to the senate in 1972, his wife, Neilia, and daughter Naomi were killed in a car crash. His career has also been marked by lesser crises. His first presidential run ended in a plagiarism scandal. He nearly died of a brain aneurism.
New administrations are dominated by the young and the arrogant, and benefit from the presence of those who have been through the worst and who have a tinge of perspective.
Moreover, there are moments when a president has to go into the cabinet room and announce a decision that nearly everyone else on his team disagrees with. In those moments, he needs a vice president who will provide absolute support. That sort of loyalty comes easiest to people who have been down themselves, and who had to rely on others in their own moments of need.
Experience. When Obama talks about postpartisanship, he talks about a grass-roots movement that will arise and sweep away the old ways of Washington. When John McCain talks about it, he describes a meeting of wise old heads who get together to craft compromises. Obama’s vision is more romantic, but McCain’s is more realistic.
When Biden was a young senator, he was mentored by Hubert Humphrey, Mike Mansfield and the like. He was schooled in senatorial procedure in the days when the Senate was less gridlocked. If Obama hopes to pass energy and health care legislation, he’s going to need someone with that kind of legislative knowledge who can bring the battered old senators together, as in days of yore.
There are other veep choices. Tim Kaine seems like a solid man, but selecting him would be disastrous. It would underline all the anxieties voters have about youth and inexperience. Evan Bayh has impeccably centrist credentials, but the country is not in the mood for dispassionate caution.
Biden’s the one. The only question is whether Obama was wise and self-aware enough to know that.
August 22, 2008
THE NEW YORK TIMES
Hoping It’s Biden
By DAVID BROOKS
Barack Obama has decided upon a vice-presidential running mate. And while I don’t know who it is as I write, for the good of the country, I hope he picked Joe Biden.
Biden’s weaknesses are on the surface. He has said a number of idiotic things over the years and, in the days following his selection, those snippets would be aired again and again.
But that won’t hurt all that much because voters are smart enough to forgive the genuine flaws of genuine people. And over the long haul, Biden provides what Obama needs:
Working-Class Roots. Biden is a lunch-bucket Democrat. His father was rich when he was young — played polo, cavorted on yachts, drove luxury cars. But through a series of bad personal and business decisions, he was broke by the time Joe Jr. came along. They lived with their in-laws in Scranton, Pa., then moved to a dingy working-class area in Wilmington, Del. At one point, the elder Biden cleaned boilers during the week and sold pennants and knickknacks at a farmer’s market on the weekends.
His son was raised with a fierce working-class pride — no one is better than anyone else. Once, when Joe Sr. was working for a car dealership, the owner threw a Christmas party for the staff. Just as the dancing was to begin, the owner scattered silver dollars on the floor and watched from above as the mechanics and salesmen scrambled about for them. Joe Sr. quit that job on the spot.
Even today, after serving for decades in the world’s most pompous workplace, Senator Biden retains an ostentatiously unpretentious manner. He campaigns with an army of Bidens who seem to emerge by the dozens from the old neighborhood in Scranton. He has disdain for privilege and for limousine liberals — the mark of an honest, working-class Democrat.
Democrats in general, and Obama in particular, have trouble connecting with working-class voters, especially Catholic ones. Biden would be the bridge.
Honesty. Biden’s most notorious feature is his mouth. But in his youth, he had a stutter. As a freshman in high school he was exempted from public speaking because of his disability, and was ridiculed by teachers and peers. His nickname was Dash, because of his inability to finish a sentence.
He developed an odd smile as a way to relax his facial muscles (it still shows up while he’s speaking today) and he’s spent his adulthood making up for any comments that may have gone unmade during his youth.
Today, Biden’s conversational style is tiresome to some, but it has one outstanding feature. He is direct. No matter who you are, he tells you exactly what he thinks, before he tells it to you a second, third and fourth time.
Presidents need someone who will be relentlessly direct. Obama, who attracts worshippers, not just staff members, needs that more than most.
Loyalty. Just after Biden was elected to the senate in 1972, his wife, Neilia, and daughter Naomi were killed in a car crash. His career has also been marked by lesser crises. His first presidential run ended in a plagiarism scandal. He nearly died of a brain aneurism.
New administrations are dominated by the young and the arrogant, and benefit from the presence of those who have been through the worst and who have a tinge of perspective.
Moreover, there are moments when a president has to go into the cabinet room and announce a decision that nearly everyone else on his team disagrees with. In those moments, he needs a vice president who will provide absolute support. That sort of loyalty comes easiest to people who have been down themselves, and who had to rely on others in their own moments of need.
Experience. When Obama talks about postpartisanship, he talks about a grass-roots movement that will arise and sweep away the old ways of Washington. When John McCain talks about it, he describes a meeting of wise old heads who get together to craft compromises. Obama’s vision is more romantic, but McCain’s is more realistic.
When Biden was a young senator, he was mentored by Hubert Humphrey, Mike Mansfield and the like. He was schooled in senatorial procedure in the days when the Senate was less gridlocked. If Obama hopes to pass energy and health care legislation, he’s going to need someone with that kind of legislative knowledge who can bring the battered old senators together, as in days of yore.
There are other veep choices. Tim Kaine seems like a solid man, but selecting him would be disastrous. It would underline all the anxieties voters have about youth and inexperience. Evan Bayh has impeccably centrist credentials, but the country is not in the mood for dispassionate caution.
Biden’s the one. The only question is whether Obama was wise and self-aware enough to know that.
IT'S ROMNEY FOR MCCAIN!
THIS IS FROM HALPERIN--MAYBE MCCAIN WON'T LIKE THE LEAK OF THIS AND WILL CHANGE HIS MIND. SO KNOW BIG GAME=CHANGER THE DAY AFTER OBAMA'S SPEECH--THEY WILL STILL BE TALKING ABOUT OBAMA IF IT'S ROMNEY.
THE PAGE--Politics up to the Minute
by Mark Halperin
2 GOP Sources: It’s Romney
Two Republicans who know say McCain has settled on Mitt Romney as his running mate.
Meanwhile: If you are the wagering type, bet on Obama announcing Joe Biden as his running mate on Saturday.
THE PAGE--Politics up to the Minute
by Mark Halperin
2 GOP Sources: It’s Romney
Two Republicans who know say McCain has settled on Mitt Romney as his running mate.
Meanwhile: If you are the wagering type, bet on Obama announcing Joe Biden as his running mate on Saturday.
FICTIONAL ROLLOUT SCHEDULE
HALPERIN’S TAKE: The Possible (Fictional) Obama Veep Rollout Schedule
istockphoto.com
Thursday
11:00 pm ET: Obama calls his choice.
11:01 pm ET: Obama gets a “yes” and tells his newly minted running mate to keep the news to himself, his wife, and children.
11:07 pm ET: The new running mate tells three close friends he has been chosen, and/but swears them to secrecy.
11:12 pm ET: Obama’s staff begins to make arrangements.
11:59 pm ET: Foolish networks and wire services call off their stakeouts for the night until 5 am local time Friday.
Friday
3:30 am ET: The Obama campaign e-mail and text messages go out, announcing the pick.
5:00 am ET: Special early editions of cable news shows go nuts with the news.
6:30 am ET: The RNC sends out way too much opposition research attacking the choice as too liberal, out of step with Obama AND with the American people, and ethically challenged.
7:00 am ET: Broadcast network morning shows go nuts with the news.
istockphoto.com
Thursday
11:00 pm ET: Obama calls his choice.
11:01 pm ET: Obama gets a “yes” and tells his newly minted running mate to keep the news to himself, his wife, and children.
11:07 pm ET: The new running mate tells three close friends he has been chosen, and/but swears them to secrecy.
11:12 pm ET: Obama’s staff begins to make arrangements.
11:59 pm ET: Foolish networks and wire services call off their stakeouts for the night until 5 am local time Friday.
Friday
3:30 am ET: The Obama campaign e-mail and text messages go out, announcing the pick.
5:00 am ET: Special early editions of cable news shows go nuts with the news.
6:30 am ET: The RNC sends out way too much opposition research attacking the choice as too liberal, out of step with Obama AND with the American people, and ethically challenged.
7:00 am ET: Broadcast network morning shows go nuts with the news.
THINGS YOU WANT TO BE AWARE OF
The new 527 ad about Obama and Ayers text is below and it's outrageous! Someone should mention the radical Gordon Liddy--he held a fundraiser for McCain at his home and McCain has been on his radio show and sang Liddy's praises. Look what Liddy wanted to do when he was in the Nixon WH. And talk about exaggeration (with apologies to VP Gore), see the latest on McCain's and Mother Teresa! Ann
Obama is winning women overall, but still having trouble with boomers.
HE’S DECIDED
The Land of Lincolner tells USA Today he’s made up his mind on a veep choice– but he’s still not spilling the beans.
Says he’s chosen someone “to challenge me so we have got a robust debate in the White House.”
Adds the decision was not easy. “We had some great choices.”
Plus: He also teases the press at a deli in Petersberg, Virginia when asked about the timing of his announcement text message, saying “Wouldn’t you like to know?”
More: At a stop at Virginia Favorites Ltd. In Emporia, Obama confirms: “I did say that I’ve made the selection and that’s all you’re going get.”
Scheduling conflicts suggest it’s not the former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn.
MCCAIN AND MOTHER TERESA (CONTINUED)
The evolution of the McCains' adoption story to involve the direct intervention of Mother Teresa can actually be traced to between 2004 and 2008. On the still-functioning McCain 2000 website in 2004, the text read:
During one of those missions, on a visit to Mother Teresa's Orphanage Cindy agreed to bring two babies in need of medical attention back to the United States.
By 2008, it had been changed as follows:
On one of those missions, Mother Teresa convinced Cindy to take two babies in need of medical attention to the United States.
McCain Prepares Rezko Ad; Wright "Now Fair Game"; GOP 527 Attacks
NARRATOR: "Beyond the speeches, how much do you know about Barack Obama?
What does he really believe? Consider this:
United 93 never hit the Capitol on 9/11. But the Capitol was bombed thirty years before -
By an American terrorist group called Weather Underground that declared 'war' on the U.S. -
Targeting the Capitol, the Pentagon, police stations and more.
One of the group's leaders, William Ayers, admits to the bombings, proudly saying later: 'We didn't do enough.' Some members of the group Ayers founded even went on to kill police.
But Barack Obama is friends with Ayers, defending him as, quote, 'Respectable' and 'Mainstream.' Obama's political career was launched in Ayers' home. And the two served together on a left-wing board.
Why would Barack Obama be friends with someone who bombed the Capitol...and is proud of it? Do you know enough to elect Barack Obama? American Issues Project is responsible for the content of this ad."
Obama's Travel Before Convention
So for those of you who wish to chart Mr. Obama’s course to Colorado, where he will accept the party’s nomination on Thursday, an early sketch of his travels look something like this:
SATURDAY – He appears before Old State Capitol in Springfield, Ill.
SUNDAY – Eau Claire, Wis.
MONDAY – Near Davenport, Iowa.
TUESDAY – Kansas City, Mo.
WEDNESDAY – Billings, Mt.
Obama is winning women overall, but still having trouble with boomers.
HE’S DECIDED
The Land of Lincolner tells USA Today he’s made up his mind on a veep choice– but he’s still not spilling the beans.
Says he’s chosen someone “to challenge me so we have got a robust debate in the White House.”
Adds the decision was not easy. “We had some great choices.”
Plus: He also teases the press at a deli in Petersberg, Virginia when asked about the timing of his announcement text message, saying “Wouldn’t you like to know?”
More: At a stop at Virginia Favorites Ltd. In Emporia, Obama confirms: “I did say that I’ve made the selection and that’s all you’re going get.”
Scheduling conflicts suggest it’s not the former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn.
MCCAIN AND MOTHER TERESA (CONTINUED)
The evolution of the McCains' adoption story to involve the direct intervention of Mother Teresa can actually be traced to between 2004 and 2008. On the still-functioning McCain 2000 website in 2004, the text read:
During one of those missions, on a visit to Mother Teresa's Orphanage Cindy agreed to bring two babies in need of medical attention back to the United States.
By 2008, it had been changed as follows:
On one of those missions, Mother Teresa convinced Cindy to take two babies in need of medical attention to the United States.
McCain Prepares Rezko Ad; Wright "Now Fair Game"; GOP 527 Attacks
NARRATOR: "Beyond the speeches, how much do you know about Barack Obama?
What does he really believe? Consider this:
United 93 never hit the Capitol on 9/11. But the Capitol was bombed thirty years before -
By an American terrorist group called Weather Underground that declared 'war' on the U.S. -
Targeting the Capitol, the Pentagon, police stations and more.
One of the group's leaders, William Ayers, admits to the bombings, proudly saying later: 'We didn't do enough.' Some members of the group Ayers founded even went on to kill police.
But Barack Obama is friends with Ayers, defending him as, quote, 'Respectable' and 'Mainstream.' Obama's political career was launched in Ayers' home. And the two served together on a left-wing board.
Why would Barack Obama be friends with someone who bombed the Capitol...and is proud of it? Do you know enough to elect Barack Obama? American Issues Project is responsible for the content of this ad."
Obama's Travel Before Convention
So for those of you who wish to chart Mr. Obama’s course to Colorado, where he will accept the party’s nomination on Thursday, an early sketch of his travels look something like this:
SATURDAY – He appears before Old State Capitol in Springfield, Ill.
SUNDAY – Eau Claire, Wis.
MONDAY – Near Davenport, Iowa.
TUESDAY – Kansas City, Mo.
WEDNESDAY – Billings, Mt.
DEBATE DETAILS
Debate schedule set
The campaigns release a debate schedule, as negotiated by Rahm Emanuel and Lindsey Graham:
1. First Presidential Debate:
* Date: September 26
* Site: University of Mississippi
* Topic: Foreign Policy & National Security
* Moderator: Jim Lehrer
* Staging: Podium debate
* Answer Format: The debate will be broken into nine, 9-minute segments. The moderator will introduce a topic and allow each candidate 2 minutes to comment. After these initial answers, the moderator will facilitate an open discussion of the topic for the remaining 5 minutes, ensuring that both candidates receive an equal amount of time to comment
2. Vice Presidential Debate
* Date: October 2nd
* Site: Washington University (St. Louis)
* Moderator: Gwen Ifill
* Staging/Answer Format: To be resolved after both parties’ Vice Presidential nominees are selected.
3. Second Presidential Debate
* Date: October 7
* Site: Belmont University (Nnashville)
* Moderator: Tom Brokaw
* Staging: Town Hall debate
* Format: The moderator will call on members of the audience (and draw questions from the internet). Each candidate will have 2 minutes to respond to each question. Following those initial answers, the moderator will invite the candidates to respond to the previous answers, for a total of 1 minute, ensuring that both candidates receive an equal amount of time to comment. In the spirit of the Town Hall, all questions will come from the audience (or internet), and not the moderator.
4. Third Presidential Debate
* Date: October 15
* Site: Hofstra University
* Topic: Domestic and Economic policy
* Moderator: Bob Schieffer
* Staging: Candidates will be seated at a table
* Answer Format: Same as First Presidential Debate
* Closing Statements: At the end of this debate (only) each candidate shall have the opportunity for a 90 second closing statement.
The campaigns release a debate schedule, as negotiated by Rahm Emanuel and Lindsey Graham:
1. First Presidential Debate:
* Date: September 26
* Site: University of Mississippi
* Topic: Foreign Policy & National Security
* Moderator: Jim Lehrer
* Staging: Podium debate
* Answer Format: The debate will be broken into nine, 9-minute segments. The moderator will introduce a topic and allow each candidate 2 minutes to comment. After these initial answers, the moderator will facilitate an open discussion of the topic for the remaining 5 minutes, ensuring that both candidates receive an equal amount of time to comment
2. Vice Presidential Debate
* Date: October 2nd
* Site: Washington University (St. Louis)
* Moderator: Gwen Ifill
* Staging/Answer Format: To be resolved after both parties’ Vice Presidential nominees are selected.
3. Second Presidential Debate
* Date: October 7
* Site: Belmont University (Nnashville)
* Moderator: Tom Brokaw
* Staging: Town Hall debate
* Format: The moderator will call on members of the audience (and draw questions from the internet). Each candidate will have 2 minutes to respond to each question. Following those initial answers, the moderator will invite the candidates to respond to the previous answers, for a total of 1 minute, ensuring that both candidates receive an equal amount of time to comment. In the spirit of the Town Hall, all questions will come from the audience (or internet), and not the moderator.
4. Third Presidential Debate
* Date: October 15
* Site: Hofstra University
* Topic: Domestic and Economic policy
* Moderator: Bob Schieffer
* Staging: Candidates will be seated at a table
* Answer Format: Same as First Presidential Debate
* Closing Statements: At the end of this debate (only) each candidate shall have the opportunity for a 90 second closing statement.
OBAMA, UNDERDOG
Obama, Underdog?
21 Aug 2008 08:04 am
Andrew Romano talks to Tom Holbrook, convention bounce sage:
If Obama does get a nice big bump and ends up ahead by six points or so, obviously that's good for his campaign. While it doesn't necessarily predict that he's going to win, it does says that he was undervalued going into the convention and that the ship's finally been righted. The real danger, though, is the "no bump" scenario. Given that the race is relatively tight now, if Obama doesn't get a big bump out of this convention, I think that will say something about how hard it's going to be for him to increase his lead in the polls. If he can't do it substantially over a four-day period when it's all his show, then I think his campaign should be worried about the months ahead.
I'm not sure any of this is worth guessing or anticipating. I do have one observation about the campaign so far, though. Obama's candidacy makes the most sense as an insurgency. The point of his campaign is change - change from the last eight years and from the way Washington plays politics in the Morris-Rove era. When he became the front-runner, got anointed as the establishment candidate, this point got blurred. The worst thing to have happened to him is this premature ascendancy. He actually needs a period when he's behind to get out of this dynamic.
Otherwise, McCain becomes the insurgent change-agent against the prematurely anointed one. (Al Giordano's related thoughts are here.)
That's why the Bayh pick, if that's what it turns out to be, could be a very shrewd idea. It creates a Clinton-Gore 1992 dynamic in which a young duo - visually different - somehow amplify the themes of newness and generational change. Against McCain, the theme of generational change is essential to the Obama message. The themes write themselves: change, not more of the same. And: It's the economy, stupid.
21 Aug 2008 08:04 am
Andrew Romano talks to Tom Holbrook, convention bounce sage:
If Obama does get a nice big bump and ends up ahead by six points or so, obviously that's good for his campaign. While it doesn't necessarily predict that he's going to win, it does says that he was undervalued going into the convention and that the ship's finally been righted. The real danger, though, is the "no bump" scenario. Given that the race is relatively tight now, if Obama doesn't get a big bump out of this convention, I think that will say something about how hard it's going to be for him to increase his lead in the polls. If he can't do it substantially over a four-day period when it's all his show, then I think his campaign should be worried about the months ahead.
I'm not sure any of this is worth guessing or anticipating. I do have one observation about the campaign so far, though. Obama's candidacy makes the most sense as an insurgency. The point of his campaign is change - change from the last eight years and from the way Washington plays politics in the Morris-Rove era. When he became the front-runner, got anointed as the establishment candidate, this point got blurred. The worst thing to have happened to him is this premature ascendancy. He actually needs a period when he's behind to get out of this dynamic.
Otherwise, McCain becomes the insurgent change-agent against the prematurely anointed one. (Al Giordano's related thoughts are here.)
That's why the Bayh pick, if that's what it turns out to be, could be a very shrewd idea. It creates a Clinton-Gore 1992 dynamic in which a young duo - visually different - somehow amplify the themes of newness and generational change. Against McCain, the theme of generational change is essential to the Obama message. The themes write themselves: change, not more of the same. And: It's the economy, stupid.
PRO-OBAMA BOOK
CALL BORDERS/ BARNES AND NOBLE AND OTHERS FOR THIS BOOK!!!!
Pro-Obama Book Floundering While Anti-Obama Book Soars
This week, a hefty faction on the left--primarily independent booksellers (following Barnes and Noble's lead)--is actively boycotting a brave attempt to bring the book-publishing industry into the 21st century, and effectively trying to keep a progressive, pro-Obama (and fact-based) title called Obama's Challenge out of the marketplace of ideas. This is a book that Hendrik Hertzberg at The New Yorker calls "the fruit of [American Prospect co-founder] Bob Kuttner's lifetime of engagé reporting, analysis, and advocacy," and goes on to say that the book "was written in a white-hot fever of urgent inspiration over mere months. I've been carrying around a draft manuscript for most of the week, reading it in every spare moment--on the subway, on the street, during stretches of Olympic longueur...it's riveting, brilliant, and persuasive."
The Obama's Challenge 75,000 print-run is on a crash schedule, due out September 15, from the independent, activist publishing house Chelsea Green (full disclosure, I worked as an editor/marketer for the house from 2004-2006) in an effort to help fight the smears against Obama in time for the election. The book will go from final edits to bound books in less than four weeks. With so little lead time until the book's publication date, Chelsea Green publisher Margo Baldwin decided to try an innovative approach for building early buzz by making 2000 early copies of the book available at next week's Democratic National Convention, as part of a deal with Amazon's print-on-demand arm, BookSurge.
Instead of receiving kudos for taking the financial risk of publishing an instant pro-Obama book, Chelsea Green is facing angry calls for regressive business tactics based on an archaic system of book distribution, and cancelled orders from booksellers large and small.
When news of the deal broke on August 15th, independent booksellers and other online retailers were enraged about the deal with BookSurge, which has Amazon providing the 2000 early copies for the Convention, and 15,000 coupons for the book to go into Convention goody bags, redeemable at Amazon. The deal also makes the book available exclusively through BookSurge's print-on-demand (POD) service from August 25-September 15, when the formal print-run would be available in all bookstores and via other online retailers, through traditional book distribution channels.
On Monday, former indie nemesis Barnes and Noble cancelled an order for 10,000 copies of Obama's Challenge and released a statement saying, "The initial order was based on the book being available to all booksellers simultaneously -- an even playing field -- which is common practice in book publishing." Many smaller stores are following suit.
Sure, now publishers can work with an indie POD option, but it simply was not an option for Obama's Challenge, and why should Chelsea Green be made an example of by the likes of corporate giant Barnes and Noble? This out-dated distribution system needs to be reformed, to be more nimble and flexible for instant books. We have the technology! Or, maybe we should just go back to using the plough, too?
The other problem here is that once again, a meticulously-reported and intelligent progressive book may die on the vine, from lack of progressive support, before word of it reaches the American public. On our side, we have no wingnut-welfare type support for our writers, who take the time to write and promote their work tirelessly in an effort to advance the progressive cause. Despite the odds, a precious few scratch and claw their way onto bestseller lists post-pub date, after tortuous weeks of book-touring and self-promotion, in the face of giant collective yawns from the progressive community. Most go to all this trouble, and still don't make the lists.
Pro-Obama Book Floundering While Anti-Obama Book Soars
This week, a hefty faction on the left--primarily independent booksellers (following Barnes and Noble's lead)--is actively boycotting a brave attempt to bring the book-publishing industry into the 21st century, and effectively trying to keep a progressive, pro-Obama (and fact-based) title called Obama's Challenge out of the marketplace of ideas. This is a book that Hendrik Hertzberg at The New Yorker calls "the fruit of [American Prospect co-founder] Bob Kuttner's lifetime of engagé reporting, analysis, and advocacy," and goes on to say that the book "was written in a white-hot fever of urgent inspiration over mere months. I've been carrying around a draft manuscript for most of the week, reading it in every spare moment--on the subway, on the street, during stretches of Olympic longueur...it's riveting, brilliant, and persuasive."
The Obama's Challenge 75,000 print-run is on a crash schedule, due out September 15, from the independent, activist publishing house Chelsea Green (full disclosure, I worked as an editor/marketer for the house from 2004-2006) in an effort to help fight the smears against Obama in time for the election. The book will go from final edits to bound books in less than four weeks. With so little lead time until the book's publication date, Chelsea Green publisher Margo Baldwin decided to try an innovative approach for building early buzz by making 2000 early copies of the book available at next week's Democratic National Convention, as part of a deal with Amazon's print-on-demand arm, BookSurge.
Instead of receiving kudos for taking the financial risk of publishing an instant pro-Obama book, Chelsea Green is facing angry calls for regressive business tactics based on an archaic system of book distribution, and cancelled orders from booksellers large and small.
When news of the deal broke on August 15th, independent booksellers and other online retailers were enraged about the deal with BookSurge, which has Amazon providing the 2000 early copies for the Convention, and 15,000 coupons for the book to go into Convention goody bags, redeemable at Amazon. The deal also makes the book available exclusively through BookSurge's print-on-demand (POD) service from August 25-September 15, when the formal print-run would be available in all bookstores and via other online retailers, through traditional book distribution channels.
On Monday, former indie nemesis Barnes and Noble cancelled an order for 10,000 copies of Obama's Challenge and released a statement saying, "The initial order was based on the book being available to all booksellers simultaneously -- an even playing field -- which is common practice in book publishing." Many smaller stores are following suit.
Sure, now publishers can work with an indie POD option, but it simply was not an option for Obama's Challenge, and why should Chelsea Green be made an example of by the likes of corporate giant Barnes and Noble? This out-dated distribution system needs to be reformed, to be more nimble and flexible for instant books. We have the technology! Or, maybe we should just go back to using the plough, too?
The other problem here is that once again, a meticulously-reported and intelligent progressive book may die on the vine, from lack of progressive support, before word of it reaches the American public. On our side, we have no wingnut-welfare type support for our writers, who take the time to write and promote their work tirelessly in an effort to advance the progressive cause. Despite the odds, a precious few scratch and claw their way onto bestseller lists post-pub date, after tortuous weeks of book-touring and self-promotion, in the face of giant collective yawns from the progressive community. Most go to all this trouble, and still don't make the lists.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
About Those Polls
New NBC/WSJ, CBS/NYT Polls
20 Aug 2008 07:43 pm
These are two of the best polls in the business, and they're remarkably similar. Obama leads by three, within the margin the error. Obama's favorables have declined over the summer. Clinton supporters remain skeptical and even give McCain an edge in certain attributes.
The CBS poll says that independents are beginning to lean more toward McCain. Also: white men. And twice as many women are undecided.
John McCain is running a negative campaign. That's the conclusion of ... wait. Just 29% of voters? Probably all Democrats. But a record for recent history.
Still: the environment favors Obama.
A whopping 60 percent say it's time to have a president who will focus on progress and moving America forward, compared with 35 percent who would rather have a president who focuses on protecting what has made America great.
And voters see McCain as way too close to President Bush
On Those National Polls
20 Aug 2008 04:28 pm
The Obama campaign has two disadvantages when it comes to spinning reporters about poll numbers.
One is an us-versus-the-establishment mentality that has, at times, served to protect the campaign from the ill-winds of fashionable opinion: last summer, the national press all but wrote Obama's obituary. He wasn't making clean contrasts with Clinton, they -- we wrote. He was too cautious. His campaign was too personality-driven. Too few people surrounded him. And then events proved the press wrong.
So when the establishment begins its quadrennial carping about strategy, the inclination among many Obama advisers is to simply ignore it. Or blame the press. "You guys," as one senior Obama adviser put it to me.
The second is that, from the top down, campaign advisers simply haven't looked at national poll numbers as a proxy for success. They didn't during the primaries, they didn't this spring, and they aren't now. (Image what Democrats would say if Hillary Clinton were entering her convention tied. "She's squandered her lead! She's going to lose it all!" That Democrats aren't saying that -- yet -- is testament to the faith they have in Obama's agility.)
But numbers are numbers. Reliable national surveys, from Pew to Bloomberg and the Los Angeles Times to tonight's CBS News / New York Times poll, all show a vector. John McCain has improved by a few points. The internally differ as to why, although there are a few common threads. One is that John McCain is doing better among conservative identifiers -- those folks who define themselves as ideological conservatives. They can be independents, Republicans, even Democrats. The reason for this is not terribly clear, but it stands to reason that the success of the surge, McCain's finesse of the gas price issue, and perhaps his posturing against Russia all contributed. The other is that McCain launched a rather nasty negative advertising campaign frontally attacking Barack Obama's character. It worked, to the extent that such a tactic can work. Compounding the type of attack was the timing. I do not think the Obama campaign expected this from John McCain, and certainly didn't expect it to begin while Obama was overseas. Obama's favorable ratings are down.
But think of this development as simply a beachhead growing a few inches taller against a very powerful wave. Eight years of Republicans and President Bush. A Democratic advantage on the economy -- an economy which is not improving. A Democratic GOTV advantage. A Democratic enthusiasm advantage. A Democratic down-ballot advantage. And McCain was always, inevitably going to grow stronger as partisanship set in. A segment of Obama's independent and Democratic vote was an anti-Clinton vote; Obama looked good in comparison to Clinton. Without Clinton, Obama was just a personality. The campaign has struggled to find a way to reset those impressions, and some folks have probably drifted.
McCain has given them something to think about this summer: Obama. And Obama hasn't returned the favor. He hasn't defined McCain in a visceral way, yet. He hasn't demonstrated that he can connect with working class white voters, although voters do find him empathetic enough. He can do both of these at
20 Aug 2008 07:43 pm
These are two of the best polls in the business, and they're remarkably similar. Obama leads by three, within the margin the error. Obama's favorables have declined over the summer. Clinton supporters remain skeptical and even give McCain an edge in certain attributes.
The CBS poll says that independents are beginning to lean more toward McCain. Also: white men. And twice as many women are undecided.
John McCain is running a negative campaign. That's the conclusion of ... wait. Just 29% of voters? Probably all Democrats. But a record for recent history.
Still: the environment favors Obama.
A whopping 60 percent say it's time to have a president who will focus on progress and moving America forward, compared with 35 percent who would rather have a president who focuses on protecting what has made America great.
And voters see McCain as way too close to President Bush
On Those National Polls
20 Aug 2008 04:28 pm
The Obama campaign has two disadvantages when it comes to spinning reporters about poll numbers.
One is an us-versus-the-establishment mentality that has, at times, served to protect the campaign from the ill-winds of fashionable opinion: last summer, the national press all but wrote Obama's obituary. He wasn't making clean contrasts with Clinton, they -- we wrote. He was too cautious. His campaign was too personality-driven. Too few people surrounded him. And then events proved the press wrong.
So when the establishment begins its quadrennial carping about strategy, the inclination among many Obama advisers is to simply ignore it. Or blame the press. "You guys," as one senior Obama adviser put it to me.
The second is that, from the top down, campaign advisers simply haven't looked at national poll numbers as a proxy for success. They didn't during the primaries, they didn't this spring, and they aren't now. (Image what Democrats would say if Hillary Clinton were entering her convention tied. "She's squandered her lead! She's going to lose it all!" That Democrats aren't saying that -- yet -- is testament to the faith they have in Obama's agility.)
But numbers are numbers. Reliable national surveys, from Pew to Bloomberg and the Los Angeles Times to tonight's CBS News / New York Times poll, all show a vector. John McCain has improved by a few points. The internally differ as to why, although there are a few common threads. One is that John McCain is doing better among conservative identifiers -- those folks who define themselves as ideological conservatives. They can be independents, Republicans, even Democrats. The reason for this is not terribly clear, but it stands to reason that the success of the surge, McCain's finesse of the gas price issue, and perhaps his posturing against Russia all contributed. The other is that McCain launched a rather nasty negative advertising campaign frontally attacking Barack Obama's character. It worked, to the extent that such a tactic can work. Compounding the type of attack was the timing. I do not think the Obama campaign expected this from John McCain, and certainly didn't expect it to begin while Obama was overseas. Obama's favorable ratings are down.
But think of this development as simply a beachhead growing a few inches taller against a very powerful wave. Eight years of Republicans and President Bush. A Democratic advantage on the economy -- an economy which is not improving. A Democratic GOTV advantage. A Democratic enthusiasm advantage. A Democratic down-ballot advantage. And McCain was always, inevitably going to grow stronger as partisanship set in. A segment of Obama's independent and Democratic vote was an anti-Clinton vote; Obama looked good in comparison to Clinton. Without Clinton, Obama was just a personality. The campaign has struggled to find a way to reset those impressions, and some folks have probably drifted.
McCain has given them something to think about this summer: Obama. And Obama hasn't returned the favor. He hasn't defined McCain in a visceral way, yet. He hasn't demonstrated that he can connect with working class white voters, although voters do find him empathetic enough. He can do both of these at
Links of interest
Worth reading, or certainly skimming, is the second link about tightening polls--some keen insight.
No hints.
Aravosis is worried by the tightening polls.
Obama's longtime Jewish outreach guy was also a lobbyist until earlier this month.
Obama pushes a commission to weaken the superdelegates and decompress the calendar.
Toby Keith praises Obama in the course of promoting "Beer for My Horse."
David Ignatius finds McCain's self-professed love of the "zinger" problematic for future diplomacy.
The Obama campaign floats the Dr. Strangelove meme.
Michelle Cottle profiles Valerie Jarrett.
Will Biden's war vote undermine Obama's message? (Although Biden's record on the war -- he and Richard Lugar first supported a resolution that would have limited the president's authority -- is probably more compatible with Obama than that of the more hawkish Evan Bayh.)
Down-ticket candidates plug Obama's message into their campaigns.
No hints.
Aravosis is worried by the tightening polls.
Obama's longtime Jewish outreach guy was also a lobbyist until earlier this month.
Obama pushes a commission to weaken the superdelegates and decompress the calendar.
Toby Keith praises Obama in the course of promoting "Beer for My Horse."
David Ignatius finds McCain's self-professed love of the "zinger" problematic for future diplomacy.
The Obama campaign floats the Dr. Strangelove meme.
Michelle Cottle profiles Valerie Jarrett.
Will Biden's war vote undermine Obama's message? (Although Biden's record on the war -- he and Richard Lugar first supported a resolution that would have limited the president's authority -- is probably more compatible with Obama than that of the more hawkish Evan Bayh.)
Down-ticket candidates plug Obama's message into their campaigns.
TiVo-DVR-VCR ALERT on CNN
On CNN
McCain/Obama Revealed. Tonight, Wednesday, August 20
McCain at 8 p.m. and
Obama at 9:30 p.m. on CNN.
McCain/Obama Revealed. Tonight, Wednesday, August 20
McCain at 8 p.m. and
Obama at 9:30 p.m. on CNN.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
JOEMENTUM!!!
Remainders: Joementum!
Joementum!
Biden says "I'm not the guy." Sell!
Rachel Maddow replaces Abrams.
The cross-in-the-dirt story never happened – to Solzhenitsyn.Bud Day vouches for McCain’s version.Sullivan notices an inconsistency.Hertzberg saw a wilted Obama at Saddleback.
McCain stays negative in Spanish.Daytime soap stars prefer Obama.You can now buy designer Obama merchandise.
Villaraigosa won't speak in Denver.
Watch out Obama, there’s an e-mail AND Internet campaign against you.
B&N is fighting with Amazon over Robert Kuttner’s new Obama book.
How can you tell if an icon is pro- or anti-Obama?
Greg Parrish takes convention coverage
requests.
Bloomberg-Paul takes Virginia by storm.
The University of Illinois won't/can't release some Obama papers.
And Steve Parry is not Michael Phelps.
Joementum!
Biden says "I'm not the guy." Sell!
Rachel Maddow replaces Abrams.
The cross-in-the-dirt story never happened – to Solzhenitsyn.Bud Day vouches for McCain’s version.Sullivan notices an inconsistency.Hertzberg saw a wilted Obama at Saddleback.
McCain stays negative in Spanish.Daytime soap stars prefer Obama.You can now buy designer Obama merchandise.
Villaraigosa won't speak in Denver.
Watch out Obama, there’s an e-mail AND Internet campaign against you.
B&N is fighting with Amazon over Robert Kuttner’s new Obama book.
How can you tell if an icon is pro- or anti-Obama?
Greg Parrish takes convention coverage
requests.
Bloomberg-Paul takes Virginia by storm.
The University of Illinois won't/can't release some Obama papers.
And Steve Parry is not Michael Phelps.
BIDEN: "I'M NOT THE GUY"
Biden: “I’m Not the Guy”
Tuesday, August 19th, 2008
As the Delaware Senator leaves his home in Wilmington Tuesday, he tells reporters gathered outside:
“I’m not the guy. See ya.”
Tuesday, August 19th, 2008
As the Delaware Senator leaves his home in Wilmington Tuesday, he tells reporters gathered outside:
“I’m not the guy. See ya.”
Friday, August 15, 2008
CONVENTION BOUNCES--WHAT THEY MEAN
What a Convention Bounce Looks Like
15 Aug 2008 04:47 pm
Nate Silver crunches the numbers. The gist:
A 6-point convention bounce represents par. If a candidate gets a bounce larger than 6 points, that can be considered to be a good sign. If the bounce is smaller than 6 points, that can be considered to be a bad sign.
15 Aug 2008 04:47 pm
Nate Silver crunches the numbers. The gist:
A 6-point convention bounce represents par. If a candidate gets a bounce larger than 6 points, that can be considered to be a good sign. If the bounce is smaller than 6 points, that can be considered to be a bad sign.
THREE CRUCIAL WEEKS
THE WASHINGTON POST
Balz: Strap In for Three Crucial Weeks
Friday, August 15th, 2008
With VP announcements, conventions and acceptance speeches just around the corner, the WashPost sage says “there has never been quite as concentrated a dose of potentially campaign-altering events” in the modern era.
“For those who revel in the unpredictability of politics, this calendar is ready-made for enjoyment.”
Plus: Balz says to expect safe, non-game-changing VP choices with the race this competitive.
Balz: Strap In for Three Crucial Weeks
Friday, August 15th, 2008
With VP announcements, conventions and acceptance speeches just around the corner, the WashPost sage says “there has never been quite as concentrated a dose of potentially campaign-altering events” in the modern era.
“For those who revel in the unpredictability of politics, this calendar is ready-made for enjoyment.”
Plus: Balz says to expect safe, non-game-changing VP choices with the race this competitive.
REMINDER: SAT. NIGHT AT 8:00 ON CNN!!
McCain and Obama Head to Saddleback Saturday
The two candidates will gather at Rick Warren’s Saddle Back Church for a candidate forum, set to begin at 8 pm ET.
The event will air live (CNN) from Lake Forest, California with roadblocked cable news coverage planned.
Each candidate is scheduled to speak onstage with the Evangelical leader for approximately one hour; a coin flip has Obama going first. McCain will not be able to hear Obama’s conversation before going on stage.
Questions will focus on stewardship, leadership,”worldview issues,” and America’s role overseas.
David Brody: Questions could get personal. Read official event preview here.
The two candidates will gather at Rick Warren’s Saddle Back Church for a candidate forum, set to begin at 8 pm ET.
The event will air live (CNN) from Lake Forest, California with roadblocked cable news coverage planned.
Each candidate is scheduled to speak onstage with the Evangelical leader for approximately one hour; a coin flip has Obama going first. McCain will not be able to hear Obama’s conversation before going on stage.
Questions will focus on stewardship, leadership,”worldview issues,” and America’s role overseas.
David Brody: Questions could get personal. Read official event preview here.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
OBAMA IN VIRGINIA NEXT WEEK--VP SPECULATION...
Obama, Richmond, VA, Next Thursday? Not Necessarily What It Looks Like... by Mark Ambinder of The Atlantic Monthly
CBS News's Jeff Greenfield and I each have independent Democratic sources who say that an advance team for Barack Obama is in Richmond, VA preparing for a campaign event next Thursday. To conjecture, of course, would be easy. Gov. Tim Kaine lives and works in Richmond... but Virginia's a swing state; it's not unusual for Obama to campaign there. Or maybe it's an event for Michelle Obama.For some reason, I don't think this is IT -- THE vice presidential announcement.
It could happen somewhere else... on another day..-- Wednesday -- in another state... and not involve anything related to Virginia. Maybe Richmond is a stop on the vice presidential tour -- a tour that begins elsewhere the day before.But: unless he's planning a convention week surprise, Obama has to announce his vice presidential nominee next week. Obama will be in Nevada on Saturday and Florida on Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday's schedule is unknown to me at this point.... (ellipses added for emphasis!)
Another potential clue: a Democratic research firm spent part of last week quietly focus grouping the political skills and attributes of Kaine and Gov. Mark Warner last week, two people familiar with the results say.
One of the sources said that the Obama campaign had conducted the tests; the other source would not disclose the identity of the organization conducting the focus groups but did agree to confirm the results.
The sources do not have direct ties to either Kaine or Warner, to the Democratic National Committee or to the Obama campaign.
They said that the focus group was held in a conference room in Norfolk, a city in Virginia's eastern Tidewater region, a huge swing area of the state.
Warner came off well; Kaine did not, with respondents saying that he lacks substantive accomplishments and kisses up too much to Obama.
No comment from the Obama campaign, but even if it was a campaign-connected firm -- pollster Joel Benenson has done regular work in Virginia, perhaps they testing to see whether Kaine or Warner should be featured in television advertisement.
CBS News's Jeff Greenfield and I each have independent Democratic sources who say that an advance team for Barack Obama is in Richmond, VA preparing for a campaign event next Thursday. To conjecture, of course, would be easy. Gov. Tim Kaine lives and works in Richmond... but Virginia's a swing state; it's not unusual for Obama to campaign there. Or maybe it's an event for Michelle Obama.For some reason, I don't think this is IT -- THE vice presidential announcement.
It could happen somewhere else... on another day..-- Wednesday -- in another state... and not involve anything related to Virginia. Maybe Richmond is a stop on the vice presidential tour -- a tour that begins elsewhere the day before.But: unless he's planning a convention week surprise, Obama has to announce his vice presidential nominee next week. Obama will be in Nevada on Saturday and Florida on Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday's schedule is unknown to me at this point.... (ellipses added for emphasis!)
Another potential clue: a Democratic research firm spent part of last week quietly focus grouping the political skills and attributes of Kaine and Gov. Mark Warner last week, two people familiar with the results say.
One of the sources said that the Obama campaign had conducted the tests; the other source would not disclose the identity of the organization conducting the focus groups but did agree to confirm the results.
The sources do not have direct ties to either Kaine or Warner, to the Democratic National Committee or to the Obama campaign.
They said that the focus group was held in a conference room in Norfolk, a city in Virginia's eastern Tidewater region, a huge swing area of the state.
Warner came off well; Kaine did not, with respondents saying that he lacks substantive accomplishments and kisses up too much to Obama.
No comment from the Obama campaign, but even if it was a campaign-connected firm -- pollster Joel Benenson has done regular work in Virginia, perhaps they testing to see whether Kaine or Warner should be featured in television advertisement.
VP TEASE/PUZZLE
THE NEW YORK TIMES
Such a tease, that Democratic National Convention Committee.
They just sent out an e-mail message to reporters about the program for the third night of the convention.
“The headline prime-time speaker on Wednesday will be Barack Obama’s Vice Presidential Nominee,” it says.
Then after mentioning former Bill Clinton’s slot, which had already been reported, the release goes on to say:
Governor Bill Richardson and Senators Evan Bayh, Joe Biden and Jay Rockefeller will echo Obama’s call for a new direction in national security and outline his policies and plans to secure America’s future.
Wait, what? Three of those people are often mentioned (and two very often mentioned) as possible running mates. So does that mean it’s one of them because they’re speaking sometime on Aug. 27? Does that mean they’re definitely not it because they’re speaking on Aug. 27, but not in the running mate’s slot? We asked Jenny Baukus, a spokeswoman for Senator Barack Obama, not really expecting any answers. And she didn’t really provide any.
“We reserve the right to change the schedule when we want and you shouldn’t make any assumptions,” she said. “Any person speaking on any given night could speak again as vice president.”
Anyway, other speakers for the evening include Senators Harry Reid, the majority leader, as well as Senator Ken Salazar of Colorado, Representative James Clyburn of South Carolina, Representative Patrick Murphy of Pennsylvania, and Tammy Duckworth, the Illinois secretary of veterans affairs and Iraq veteran who ran a close but unsuccessful race for the United States House in Illinois in 2006.
While the party announced a lineup of acts trending toward hip-hop, folk, and rock earlier this week, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s slate of performers at some of its convention parties, is a bit, well, loungey-er.
Tony Bennett, James Taylor and John Legend perform at a “Salute to Nancy Pelosi” on Aug. 25, and Idina Menzel, the Broadway star, will be at a reception honoring women members of Congress on Aug. 27.
Such a tease, that Democratic National Convention Committee.
They just sent out an e-mail message to reporters about the program for the third night of the convention.
“The headline prime-time speaker on Wednesday will be Barack Obama’s Vice Presidential Nominee,” it says.
Then after mentioning former Bill Clinton’s slot, which had already been reported, the release goes on to say:
Governor Bill Richardson and Senators Evan Bayh, Joe Biden and Jay Rockefeller will echo Obama’s call for a new direction in national security and outline his policies and plans to secure America’s future.
Wait, what? Three of those people are often mentioned (and two very often mentioned) as possible running mates. So does that mean it’s one of them because they’re speaking sometime on Aug. 27? Does that mean they’re definitely not it because they’re speaking on Aug. 27, but not in the running mate’s slot? We asked Jenny Baukus, a spokeswoman for Senator Barack Obama, not really expecting any answers. And she didn’t really provide any.
“We reserve the right to change the schedule when we want and you shouldn’t make any assumptions,” she said. “Any person speaking on any given night could speak again as vice president.”
Anyway, other speakers for the evening include Senators Harry Reid, the majority leader, as well as Senator Ken Salazar of Colorado, Representative James Clyburn of South Carolina, Representative Patrick Murphy of Pennsylvania, and Tammy Duckworth, the Illinois secretary of veterans affairs and Iraq veteran who ran a close but unsuccessful race for the United States House in Illinois in 2006.
While the party announced a lineup of acts trending toward hip-hop, folk, and rock earlier this week, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s slate of performers at some of its convention parties, is a bit, well, loungey-er.
Tony Bennett, James Taylor and John Legend perform at a “Salute to Nancy Pelosi” on Aug. 25, and Idina Menzel, the Broadway star, will be at a reception honoring women members of Congress on Aug. 27.
OBAMA'S PLANE INCIDENT LAST MONTH
ABC: Tapes Contradict Account of Obama Plane Incident
Air traffic control tapes reveal that the pilot of Obama’s campaign plane did declare an emergency last month after an evacuation slide inflated inside the plane’s tail.
The jet’s pilot also requested emergency equipment meet the plane in St. Louis.
Officials had said the pilot did not declare an emergency, and there was no concern about danger.
Air traffic control tapes reveal that the pilot of Obama’s campaign plane did declare an emergency last month after an evacuation slide inflated inside the plane’s tail.
The jet’s pilot also requested emergency equipment meet the plane in St. Louis.
Officials had said the pilot did not declare an emergency, and there was no concern about danger.
THIS MAN WON'T BE SWIFT-BOATED
This Man Won’t Be Swift Boated
Thursday, August 14th, 2008
Obama campaign plans an aggressive counter-attack against the new Swift-Boat-Vet style book targeting the Senator.
Campaign plans to dig into the author’s past statements, increase surrogate action against the book, and step up pressure on high-level media executives for equal time to rebut charges.
Thursday, August 14th, 2008
Obama campaign plans an aggressive counter-attack against the new Swift-Boat-Vet style book targeting the Senator.
Campaign plans to dig into the author’s past statements, increase surrogate action against the book, and step up pressure on high-level media executives for equal time to rebut charges.
HILLARY GETS HER NAME UP FOR NOMINATION
(As an aside--why is the NYTimes saying that Clinton plans to vote for Obama? Is that suppose to be surprising? It shouldn't be news--but wonder if it's really true!)
Obama: A Ballot for Clinton Will “Celebrate This Defining Moment”
Thursday, August 14th, 2008
The two Democrats release a joint statement on the plan to put Clinton’s name up for nomination at the Democratic convention. Read it here.
Obama: “I am convinced that honoring Senator Clinton’s historic campaign in this way will help us celebrate this defining moment in our history and bring the party together….”
The symbolic move was likely approved by the Obama camp in an effort to ease the lingering rift with Clinton supporters.
NY Times: Clinton plans to vote for Obama.
* * * * *
Obama: A Ballot for Clinton Will “Celebrate This Defining Moment”
Thursday, August 14th, 2008
The two Democrats release a joint statement on the plan to put Clinton’s name up for nomination at the Democratic convention. Read it here.
Obama: “I am convinced that honoring Senator Clinton’s historic campaign in this way will help us celebrate this defining moment in our history and bring the party together….”
The symbolic move was likely approved by the Obama camp in an effort to ease the lingering rift with Clinton supporters.
NY Times: Clinton plans to vote for Obama.
* * * * *
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
270 OR BUST?
MARK HALPERIN’S TAKE: 270 Or Bust?
Obama goes for a big win, with risks
There are 538 precious electoral votes up for grabs on Nov. 4. To win, John McCain or Barack Obama needs to claim at least 270 of them.
The last two presidential elections were so close that both sides basically targeted only a handful of battleground states. Democrats in particular were cautious in 2000 and 2004. Facing a sea of red in the South and West, the party ended up focusing its resources on more winnable states whose electoral votes would just barely lift them to victory.
This time, the Republicans face the more challenging map, while Obama—flush with donations and volunteers has a cushion.
By competing in additional states, Obama can create more possible combinations to reach 270 electoral votes. And if he finishes strong, strategists in both parties agree, he could win more than 370 — a solid mandate for the sweeping changes he has promised.
But every dollar and every hour spent in places like deeply Republican Georgia divert resources from must win battlegrounds like Michigan. Some strategists wonder, then, if Obama’s campaign risks trying to win by a landslide and possibly losing by a hair.
Obama goes for a big win, with risks
There are 538 precious electoral votes up for grabs on Nov. 4. To win, John McCain or Barack Obama needs to claim at least 270 of them.
The last two presidential elections were so close that both sides basically targeted only a handful of battleground states. Democrats in particular were cautious in 2000 and 2004. Facing a sea of red in the South and West, the party ended up focusing its resources on more winnable states whose electoral votes would just barely lift them to victory.
This time, the Republicans face the more challenging map, while Obama—flush with donations and volunteers has a cushion.
By competing in additional states, Obama can create more possible combinations to reach 270 electoral votes. And if he finishes strong, strategists in both parties agree, he could win more than 370 — a solid mandate for the sweeping changes he has promised.
But every dollar and every hour spent in places like deeply Republican Georgia divert resources from must win battlegrounds like Michigan. Some strategists wonder, then, if Obama’s campaign risks trying to win by a landslide and possibly losing by a hair.
TiVo--DVR--VCR ALERT
This Saturday night, August 16, Pastor Rick Warren is hosting Obama and McCain at a LIVE forum called "The Compassionate Leader". It's on CNN at 8:00pm
HILLARY'S PLANNING HER CONVENTION!!
August 13, 2008
Yes, She Can
By MAUREEN DOWD THE NEW YORK TIMES
WASHINGTON
While Obama was spending three hours watching “The Dark Knight” five time zones away, and going to a fund-raiser featuring “Aloha attire” and Hawaiian pupus, Hillary was busy planning her convention.
You can almost hear her mind whirring: She’s amazed at how easy it was to snatch Denver away from the Obama saps. Like taking candy from a baby, except Beanpole Guy doesn’t eat candy. In just a couple of weeks, Bill and Hill were able to drag No Drama Obama into a swamp of Clinton drama.
Now they’ve made Barry’s convention all about them — their dissatisfaction and revisionism and barely disguised desire to see him fail. Whatever insincere words of support the Clintons muster, their primal scream gets louder: He can’t win! He can’t close the deal! We told you so!
Hillary’s orchestrating a play within the play in Denver. Just as Hamlet used the device to show that his stepfather murdered his father, Hillary will try to show the Democrats they chose the wrong savior.
Her former aide Howard Wolfson fanned the divisive flames Monday on ABC News, arguing that Hillary would have beaten Obama in Iowa and become the nominee if John Edwards’s affair had come out last year — an assertion contradicted by a University of Iowa survey showing that far more Edwards supporters had Obama as their second choice.
Hillary feels no guilt about encouraging her supporters to mess up Obama’s big moment, thus undermining his odds of beating John McCain and improving her odds of being the nominee in 2012.
She’s obviously relishing Hillaryworld’s plans to have multiple rallies in Denver, to take out TV and print ads and to hold up signs in the hall that read “Denounce Nobama’s Coronation.”
In a video of a closed California fund-raiser on July 31 that surfaced on YouTube, Hillary was clearly receptive to having her name put in nomination and a roll-call vote.
She said she thought it would be good for party unity if her gals felt “that their voices are heard.”
But that’s disingenuous. Hillary was the one who raised the roll-call idea at the end of May with Democrats, who were urging her to face the math. She said she wanted it for Chelsea, oblivious to how such a vote would dim Obama’s star turn. Ever since she stepped aside in June, she’s been telling people privately that there might have to be “a catharsis” at the convention, signaling she wants a Clinton crescendo.
Bill continues to howl at the moon — and any reporters in the vicinity — about Obama; he’s starting to make King Lear look like Ryan Seacrest.
The way the Clintons see it, there’s nothing wrong with a couple making plans for their future, is there? That’s the American way and, as their pal Mark Penn pointed out, they have American roots while Obama “is not at his center fundamentally American in his thinking and in his values.”
The Clintons know that a lot of Democrats are muttering that their solipsistic behavior is “disgusting.” But they’re too filled with delicious schadenfreude at the wave of buyer’s remorse that has swept the Democratic Party; many Democrats are questioning whether Obama is fighting back hard enough against McCain, and many are wondering, given his inability to open up a lead in a country fed up with Republicans, if race will be an insurmountable factor.
Some Democrats wish that Obama had told the Clintons to “get in the box” or get lost if they can’t show more loyalty, rather than giving them back-to-back, prime-time speaking gigs at the convention on Tuesday and Wednesday. Al Gore clipped their wings in 2000, triggering their wrath by squeezing both the president and New York Senate candidate into speaking slots the first night and then ushering them out of L.A.
Wednesday will be all Bill. The networks will rerun his churlish comments from Africa about Obama’s readiness to lead and his South Carolina meltdowns. TV will have more interest in a volcanic ex-president than a genteel veep choice.
Obama also allowed Hillary supporters to insert an absurd statement into the platform suggesting that media sexism spurred her loss and that “demeaning portrayals of women ... dampen the dreams of our daughters.” This, even though postmortems, including the new raft of campaign memos leaked by Clintonistas to The Atlantic — another move that undercuts Obama — finger Hillary’s horrendous management skills.
Besides the crashing egos and screeching factions working at cross purposes, Joshua Green writes in the magazine, Hillary’s “hesitancy and habit of avoiding hard choices exacted a price that eventually sank her chances at the presidency.”
It would have been better to put this language in the platform: “A woman who wildly mismanages and bankrupts a quarter-of-a-billion-dollar campaign operation, and then blames sexism in society, will dampen the dreams of our daughters.”
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
LATEST DENVER SPEAKER DETAILS
Monday--Opening night will include: Nancy Pelosi, Denver Mayor Hickenlooper and Missouri Sen. McCaskill.
There will also be a tribute to Ted Kennedy, along with a videotaped message from him.
Headliner Michelle Obama will be introduced by her brother Craig Robinson and sister-in-law Maya Soetoro-Ng.
Tuesday: Ohio Gov. Strickland says he’s slotted for the second night. He’ll likely be ahead of Hillary Clinton, whom he supported.
Thursday: Colorado Gov. Ritter will be among the speakers at Invesco Field.
There will also be a tribute to Ted Kennedy, along with a videotaped message from him.
Headliner Michelle Obama will be introduced by her brother Craig Robinson and sister-in-law Maya Soetoro-Ng.
Tuesday: Ohio Gov. Strickland says he’s slotted for the second night. He’ll likely be ahead of Hillary Clinton, whom he supported.
Thursday: Colorado Gov. Ritter will be among the speakers at Invesco Field.
Obama Winning The Faith Vote?
From Barna's new study:
For the most part, the various faith communities of the U.S. currently support Sen. Obama for the presidency. Among the 19 faith segments that The Barna Group tracks, evangelicals were the only segment to throw its support to Sen. McCain.
Among the larger faith niches to support Sen. Obama are non-evangelical born again Christians (43% to 31%);
notional Christians (44% to 28%);
people aligned with faiths other than Christianity (56% to 24%);
atheists and agnostics (55% to 17%);
Catholics (39% vs. 29%);
and Protestants (43% to 34%).
In fact, if the current preferences stand pat, this would mark the first time in more than two decades that the born again vote has swung toward the Democratic candidate.
For the most part, the various faith communities of the U.S. currently support Sen. Obama for the presidency. Among the 19 faith segments that The Barna Group tracks, evangelicals were the only segment to throw its support to Sen. McCain.
Among the larger faith niches to support Sen. Obama are non-evangelical born again Christians (43% to 31%);
notional Christians (44% to 28%);
people aligned with faiths other than Christianity (56% to 24%);
atheists and agnostics (55% to 17%);
Catholics (39% vs. 29%);
and Protestants (43% to 34%).
In fact, if the current preferences stand pat, this would mark the first time in more than two decades that the born again vote has swung toward the Democratic candidate.
Republicans for Obama
Obama Camp to Court Republicans
The Illinois Senator’s campaign plans to launch its Republicans for Obama campaign Tuesday with a morning media call hosted by former GOP Rep. Jim Leach.
Call will also feature “other Republicans who are crossing the divide of old politics to support” Obama.
Read campaign memo teeing up the day here.
Radio Iowa has the details on Leach’s decision to buck his party and endorse Obama over McCain.
The Illinois Senator’s campaign plans to launch its Republicans for Obama campaign Tuesday with a morning media call hosted by former GOP Rep. Jim Leach.
Call will also feature “other Republicans who are crossing the divide of old politics to support” Obama.
Read campaign memo teeing up the day here.
Radio Iowa has the details on Leach’s decision to buck his party and endorse Obama over McCain.
Monday, August 11, 2008
OBAMA-CANS UNITE
Obama-cans Unite
By Michael Luo
Led by a former Bush fund-raiser and a former U.S. Senator who bolted the G.O.P. several years ago, a group of current and former Republicans disenchanted with Senator John McCain and supportive of Senator Barack Obama are banding together to start a “Republicans for Obama” effort.
Rita Hauser, a New York philanthropist who raised money for both George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush, is helping to organize the push to draw Republicans away from Mr. McCain and will serve as a spokeswoman for the group, alongside former U.S. Senator Lincoln Chafee, of Rhode Island, who was one of the most moderate Republicans in the Senate and became an independent after he lost his seat in 2006.
Ms. Hauser served as a finance chairwoman in New York for George W. Bush in 2000 and was a member of the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board during his first term, but she endorsed Senator John F. Kerry in 2004, because of her opposition to the Iraq War.Ms. Hauser said she was motivated to support the presumed Democratic nominee, Mr. Obama, again by her feelings on Iraq. But she said others in the group were driven by other issues.
About 20 current and former Republicans make up the group’s leadership committee, including Douglas Kmiec, a Republican who served in the Justice Department under President Ronald Reagan and was a supporter of Mitt Romney during the Republican primary, and Dorothy Danforth Burlin, a Washington lawyer who is the daughter of former U.S. Senator John Danforth, another moderate Republican.
The group plans to unveil a Web site this week that will include a chat room and the ability for others to sign onto their cause.
By Michael Luo
Led by a former Bush fund-raiser and a former U.S. Senator who bolted the G.O.P. several years ago, a group of current and former Republicans disenchanted with Senator John McCain and supportive of Senator Barack Obama are banding together to start a “Republicans for Obama” effort.
Rita Hauser, a New York philanthropist who raised money for both George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush, is helping to organize the push to draw Republicans away from Mr. McCain and will serve as a spokeswoman for the group, alongside former U.S. Senator Lincoln Chafee, of Rhode Island, who was one of the most moderate Republicans in the Senate and became an independent after he lost his seat in 2006.
Ms. Hauser served as a finance chairwoman in New York for George W. Bush in 2000 and was a member of the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board during his first term, but she endorsed Senator John F. Kerry in 2004, because of her opposition to the Iraq War.Ms. Hauser said she was motivated to support the presumed Democratic nominee, Mr. Obama, again by her feelings on Iraq. But she said others in the group were driven by other issues.
About 20 current and former Republicans make up the group’s leadership committee, including Douglas Kmiec, a Republican who served in the Justice Department under President Ronald Reagan and was a supporter of Mitt Romney during the Republican primary, and Dorothy Danforth Burlin, a Washington lawyer who is the daughter of former U.S. Senator John Danforth, another moderate Republican.
The group plans to unveil a Web site this week that will include a chat room and the ability for others to sign onto their cause.
CANDIDATES FAVORITE SONGS
Candidates’ Top Tunes: ABBAS, Beach Boys, Kanye, Fugees
Both list their top 10 songs to Blender magazine
Obama’s list includes: Marvin Gaye, Nina Simone, will.i.am, Fugees, Kanye West.
McCain’s features: Two songs from ABBAS, the Beach Boys, Neil Diamond, Ray Orbison.
Only artist they have in common is Sinatra.
Both list their top 10 songs to Blender magazine
Obama’s list includes: Marvin Gaye, Nina Simone, will.i.am, Fugees, Kanye West.
McCain’s features: Two songs from ABBAS, the Beach Boys, Neil Diamond, Ray Orbison.
Only artist they have in common is Sinatra.
BIKES AND GEORGIA
Obama to Bikers: Don’t Rev Your Engines for McCain
A new radio spot airing in Wisconsin (the home of Harley-Davidson) mocks the Arizonan’s remarks to bikers at a rally in South Dakota earlier this month.
The ad quotes McCain’s joke about prefering the roar of Harleys over that of Berliners, calls him out for allegedly opposing a requirement the government buy American-made motorbikes.
“But when it comes to his record, American-made motorcycles like Harleys don’t matter to John McCain.”
Listen to it here.
Bush, Obama to Speak on Conflict in Georgia
The President is expected to comment on the worsening battle with Russia at 5:15 pm ET from the White House Rose Garden.
Separately, Obama is also expected to make an on-camera statement about the conflict from Hawaii some time before 5:30 pm ET.
For McCain’s latest response, click here.
Meanwhile, Russia advances into Georgia proper, seizing a military base and forcing the Georgian army to retreat.
A new radio spot airing in Wisconsin (the home of Harley-Davidson) mocks the Arizonan’s remarks to bikers at a rally in South Dakota earlier this month.
The ad quotes McCain’s joke about prefering the roar of Harleys over that of Berliners, calls him out for allegedly opposing a requirement the government buy American-made motorbikes.
“But when it comes to his record, American-made motorcycles like Harleys don’t matter to John McCain.”
Listen to it here.
Bush, Obama to Speak on Conflict in Georgia
The President is expected to comment on the worsening battle with Russia at 5:15 pm ET from the White House Rose Garden.
Separately, Obama is also expected to make an on-camera statement about the conflict from Hawaii some time before 5:30 pm ET.
For McCain’s latest response, click here.
Meanwhile, Russia advances into Georgia proper, seizing a military base and forcing the Georgian army to retreat.
New Obama target: 2 million donors
New Obama target: 2 million donors
In a new email, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe tries to raise the cost of McCain's attacks, telling donors that he's attacking them, and setting a goal that suggests that the confrontational new tone has ignited Obama's donor base
Two million donors is an incredible number -- a number that was previously unimaginable for presidential campaigns. And it's a number this campaign never dreamed we could reach before the convention.
But because so many supporters have stepped up to own a piece of this movement in the face of McCain's attacks, we are just days away from making history.
In a new email, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe tries to raise the cost of McCain's attacks, telling donors that he's attacking them, and setting a goal that suggests that the confrontational new tone has ignited Obama's donor base
Two million donors is an incredible number -- a number that was previously unimaginable for presidential campaigns. And it's a number this campaign never dreamed we could reach before the convention.
But because so many supporters have stepped up to own a piece of this movement in the face of McCain's attacks, we are just days away from making history.
VOTER REGISTRATION IN N. CAROLINA
FROM BEN SMITH OF THE POLITICO
I asked readers last week what they were seeing on the ground, in terms of the reality of Obama's promised massive voter registration operation, and an Obama volunteer in Raleigh, NC, Adam Terando, offered a very detailed snapshot of what's going on in his county.
His (slightly edited) take:
They are going extremely well but they also have really high targets.
I'm attaching two graphs showing recent voter registration stats for Wake County (where Raleigh is located). This is one of the key counties. Kerry lost Wake by about 8,000 votes in 2004 and in 2008 Wake needs to be one of the counties where Obama runs up his total if we're going to win the state (Kerry lost NC by 500,000 votes in 2004 so you get an idea of how much they need to up turnout and flip votes).
Basically the Obama campaign added 15,000 Democrats and 7,000 Unaffiliated voters for the primary, then they pulled up stakes for 6-8 weeks and since they've started up again they've added another 6,000 Democrats and 6,000 Unaffiliated voters. Republicans in this time have only added 1,000 voters in Wake county since the beginning of the year (keep in mind Wake county is one of the fastest growing counties in the country). Republicans are down to 32% of registered voters where in the 2004 election they were 36% of registered voters in the county.
I have no doubt Obama will flip this county in 2008; the only question is by how much.Also: 12,000 new African Americans have registered since the beginning of the year and almost 4,000 just since the beginning of July.
I asked readers last week what they were seeing on the ground, in terms of the reality of Obama's promised massive voter registration operation, and an Obama volunteer in Raleigh, NC, Adam Terando, offered a very detailed snapshot of what's going on in his county.
His (slightly edited) take:
They are going extremely well but they also have really high targets.
I'm attaching two graphs showing recent voter registration stats for Wake County (where Raleigh is located). This is one of the key counties. Kerry lost Wake by about 8,000 votes in 2004 and in 2008 Wake needs to be one of the counties where Obama runs up his total if we're going to win the state (Kerry lost NC by 500,000 votes in 2004 so you get an idea of how much they need to up turnout and flip votes).
Basically the Obama campaign added 15,000 Democrats and 7,000 Unaffiliated voters for the primary, then they pulled up stakes for 6-8 weeks and since they've started up again they've added another 6,000 Democrats and 6,000 Unaffiliated voters. Republicans in this time have only added 1,000 voters in Wake county since the beginning of the year (keep in mind Wake county is one of the fastest growing counties in the country). Republicans are down to 32% of registered voters where in the 2004 election they were 36% of registered voters in the county.
I have no doubt Obama will flip this county in 2008; the only question is by how much.Also: 12,000 new African Americans have registered since the beginning of the year and almost 4,000 just since the beginning of July.
OBAMA'S VP ANNOUNCEMENT APPROACHING
Obama's VP Announcement Approaching
When will Barack Obama unveil his vice presidential pick? Early next week, according to circumstantial evidence, as well as some information imparted on the condition of anonymity.
Unless Obama intends to wait until the convnetion begins to -- as George H.W. Bush did in 1988 with Dan Quayle -- choosing the week before the convention is logical.
Campaign advisers have said that they expect Obama and the nominee to tour the country before the convention, but others have suggested a trip after the convention -- during the Republican convention -- that would provide a nice visual and message counterweight to the wall-to-wall coverage of Republicans.
In 1992, then Gov. Bill Clinton and Sen. Al Gore bonded over a successful post-convention bus tour with the theme of "on the road to change America."
When will Barack Obama unveil his vice presidential pick? Early next week, according to circumstantial evidence, as well as some information imparted on the condition of anonymity.
Unless Obama intends to wait until the convnetion begins to -- as George H.W. Bush did in 1988 with Dan Quayle -- choosing the week before the convention is logical.
Campaign advisers have said that they expect Obama and the nominee to tour the country before the convention, but others have suggested a trip after the convention -- during the Republican convention -- that would provide a nice visual and message counterweight to the wall-to-wall coverage of Republicans.
In 1992, then Gov. Bill Clinton and Sen. Al Gore bonded over a successful post-convention bus tour with the theme of "on the road to change America."
NEW OBAMA AD, GEORGIA, NO MORE MR. MAVERICK, CONVENTION KEYNOTE SCHEDULE
The Obama campaign, which just this morning rolled out a new television ad that, according to a statement from the campaign, “addresses the numerous ways in which the special interests in Washington have embraced John McCain and how McCain has hugged right back.” It calls him a Washington celebrity, using clips of the senator’s appearances on late-night talk shows in an obvious ploy by the Obama campaign to turn that celebrity-label back at the opponent.
As the conflict between Russia and Georgia escalates both candidates also spent the weekend refining their positions on the situation.
In a television ad last week, the McCain campaign touted the presumptive Republican nominee as “the original maverick,” but the Los Angeles Times’s Nicholas Riccardi and Maeve Reston see larger issues for Mr. McCain, whose maverick status has lately been called into question:
This debate over McCain’s maverick-ness reflects a new challenge in his second bid for the presidency: the dilution of the McCain brand. To win the GOP primary this year, McCain embraced party dogma in ways big and small, from switching his opposition to President Bush’s tax cuts, which he had criticized as skewed to the rich, to making amends with religious leaders he once denounced as “agents of intolerance.”
The campaign has also undercut McCain’s image as a straight-talker by dramatically limiting the national media’s access to the candidate, who once charmed reporters and voters alike with his easy, free-wheeling, common-man conversational style on his campaign bus.
Convention Update: The Democratic Party has announced some of the keynote speakers at the Democratic National Convention later this month. They include Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, former President Bill Clinton, and Michelle Obama, who will speak on the convention’s opening night.
As the conflict between Russia and Georgia escalates both candidates also spent the weekend refining their positions on the situation.
In a television ad last week, the McCain campaign touted the presumptive Republican nominee as “the original maverick,” but the Los Angeles Times’s Nicholas Riccardi and Maeve Reston see larger issues for Mr. McCain, whose maverick status has lately been called into question:
This debate over McCain’s maverick-ness reflects a new challenge in his second bid for the presidency: the dilution of the McCain brand. To win the GOP primary this year, McCain embraced party dogma in ways big and small, from switching his opposition to President Bush’s tax cuts, which he had criticized as skewed to the rich, to making amends with religious leaders he once denounced as “agents of intolerance.”
The campaign has also undercut McCain’s image as a straight-talker by dramatically limiting the national media’s access to the candidate, who once charmed reporters and voters alike with his easy, free-wheeling, common-man conversational style on his campaign bus.
Convention Update: The Democratic Party has announced some of the keynote speakers at the Democratic National Convention later this month. They include Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, former President Bill Clinton, and Michelle Obama, who will speak on the convention’s opening night.
NEW OBAMA BOOK COMING THIS FALL
New Obama book coming this fall
By: Mike Allen August 11, 2008 THE POLITICO
Barack: The Book will hit stores on Sept. 9, just as the fall campaign is heating up."Change We Can Believe In: Barack Obama's Plan to Renew America's Promise” includes a campaign photo album from the road, a collection of seven of the hit speeches by Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), and new essays outlining his policy proposals.
Since everything Obama is selling well these days, that means the senator's picture and policies will be in the front of most bookstores in America throughout the heart of the general-election campaign.The secret project—both a collectible, and an answer to questions about his substance—was launched just a month ago, and got to the printer with no leaks.Three Rivers Press—a paperback imprint of Crown Publishing, which published Obama's two previous bestsellers—is announcing the book Monday, and plans a monster first printing of 300,000 copies.The digital e-book will go on sale a day early at the same price as the trade paperback — $13.95. The cover image is an Associated Press photo of Obama speaking, over an impressionistic version of his rising-sun campaign logo that forms the background of the cover.
"Includes 7 Key Speeches from the 2008 Campaign," the cover says. "With a Foreword By BARACK OBAMA."The unique terms were worked out by Washington superlawer Robert B. Barnett of Williams & Connolly.
Profits from the book will go to a yet-to-be-determined charity, with no proceeds being retained by Obama or his campaign.The book promises to be the biggest campaign publishing success in 16 years, following on the Clinton-Gore “Putting People First: How We Can All Change America” and H. Ross Perot’s “United We Stand,” both big bestsellers during the 1992 campaign.Obama wrote the several-page foreword. Ten or 12 campaign staffers wrote the policy section, which includes: “How to Fix Our Ailing Economy,” “How to Strengthen the Middle Class,” “How to Make Health Care Affordable for All,” “How to Achieve Energy Independence” and “How to Keep America Safe in a Dangerous World.”The speech section includes his declaration of candidacy in Springfield, Ill. in February 2007; his victory remarks after the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3 ("You know, they said this day would never come"); his speech on race in America, "A More Perfect Union," in Philadelphia in March; his Father's Day speech in Chicago; his "Renewing American Competitiveness" remarks in June; and his address to the people of Berlin two weeks ago, "A World That Stands as One."
Obama's two previous books have been huge best-sellers: “Dreams from My Father: A Story of Race and Inheritance,” published in 1995 and re-released in 2004; and “The Audacity of Hope: Thoughts on Reclaiming the American Dream,” which came out in the fall of 2006.Under a separate deal, the senator is to write two more books for Crown, including a children’s book with his wife, Michelle, and their two young daughters. Those books were part of a $1.9-million, three-book deal announced in December 2004.The new book's subtitle, "Barack Obama's Plan to Renew America's Promise," carries an echo of the title of George W. Bush's campaign policy book in 2000, "Renewing America's Purpose."By coincidence, Obama's new book comes out the day after another Washington blockbuster — Bob Woodward's latest, with the subtitle, "Bush at War, Part IV." The title is a closely held secret.
Sunday, August 10, 2008
SUNDAY NIGHT READING
Issues and Answers (or Guesses)
HALPERIN’S TAKE: The future right now — running mates, timing, conventions, and more.
Want to Know Who Obama Will Pick As His Running Mate??
Campaign manager David Plouffe wants to tell you. Click here for more.
HALPERIN’S TAKE: The future right now — running mates, timing, conventions, and more.
Want to Know Who Obama Will Pick As His Running Mate??
Campaign manager David Plouffe wants to tell you. Click here for more.
DON'T SWEAT THE POLLS
Chicago Sun-Times
August 10, 2008
CAROL MARIN cmarin@suntimes.com
Finally, for John McCain, a week to smile about. "Obama fatigue," a virus that's afflicted the GOP presidential candidate for sometime now, was discovered in a new Pew survey to have spread to 48 percent of the populace.
And recent national polls now place McCain and Barack Obama in a statistical dead heat. Gallup's numbers have Obama 46, McCain 43.
RealClearPolitics' national average is about the same, Obama 46.9 to McCain 43.3.
What does it mean? Next to nothing. And Obama's team not only knows it, it thrives on it.
They think "horse race" in the classic Seabiscuit sense.
Out of the gate, the thoroughbred who leads too early and by too great a margin is more often than not the vulnerable one, the one in danger of losing it all to the horse who strategically holds back, waits, and then thunders in the final furlongs to finish first.
Obama's political guru, David Axelrod, and his Chicago-based firm, AKP&D lay it out on their Web site. "We win tough races. . . . campaigns no one thought could be won," it states. "The governor who came from 20 points behind" . . . (Iowa's Tom Vilsack). "The incumbent mayor who came back from 20 points down in only 20 days" . . . (Deedee Corradini in Salt Lake City)
"The congresswoman who won Dan Quayle's old seat in an upset" . . . (Indiana's Jill Long).
Axelrod & Co. can now include in its victory list the skinny unknown from Chicago who in one short year went from a mere 26 percent in the polls to toppling front-runner Hillary Clinton who was a full 22 points ahead of him last August.
"The national numbers mean nothing," said John Kupper, the "K" in AKP&D, last week by phone. "These are not national elections but state by state elections. We have vote goals. We know prior performance models."
In other words, this is now and always has been the sum of political component parts for the Obama operation, not a national popular election but a sophisticated, incremental accumulation of delegates in the primary, and electoral votes come November.
It isn't that Axelrod's team has had no experience losing. Their most recent defeat came in 2006 and it stung. The candidate, Tammy Duckworth, was a charismatic Iraq war veteran, a pilot who lost both legs when her helicopter was shot down. Though Duckworth and AKP&D had a corner on charisma and a lot of cash, they failed to wrest U.S. Rep. Henry Hyde's former seat from Republican control.
Obama can certainly lose this race. But McCain's going to have to find a better way to win it than by invoking Paris Hilton or by sniping in his most recent ad how "life in the spotlight must be grand but for the rest of us, times are tough."
What's tough for McCain is that despite having had a practice run at the presidency once before, it didn't limber him up, cause him to realize that even the elderly now skillfully navigate the Internet or help him craft a "vision thing."
In the short run, jealous jabs at Obama for having too much face time on the covers of Rolling Stone and GQ may appear to close the gap in national polls. But the aggregation of images -- Obama in Germany, Obama with his cute girls and beautiful wife, Obama visiting his grandmother in Hawaii -- is by dribs and drabs helping America feel familiar with him, visualize him on foreign soil, and see him, perhaps, as both human and presidential.
In some ways the tightening numbers work for Obama, not against him.
"No cause for panic," said Kupper. No, indeed, he's off to splash in the Pacific surf with his family.
It's the horse race play. Or, as the Axelrod game goes, you always play the come from behind, even when you're ahead.
August 10, 2008
CAROL MARIN cmarin@suntimes.com
Finally, for John McCain, a week to smile about. "Obama fatigue," a virus that's afflicted the GOP presidential candidate for sometime now, was discovered in a new Pew survey to have spread to 48 percent of the populace.
And recent national polls now place McCain and Barack Obama in a statistical dead heat. Gallup's numbers have Obama 46, McCain 43.
RealClearPolitics' national average is about the same, Obama 46.9 to McCain 43.3.
What does it mean? Next to nothing. And Obama's team not only knows it, it thrives on it.
They think "horse race" in the classic Seabiscuit sense.
Out of the gate, the thoroughbred who leads too early and by too great a margin is more often than not the vulnerable one, the one in danger of losing it all to the horse who strategically holds back, waits, and then thunders in the final furlongs to finish first.
Obama's political guru, David Axelrod, and his Chicago-based firm, AKP&D lay it out on their Web site. "We win tough races. . . . campaigns no one thought could be won," it states. "The governor who came from 20 points behind" . . . (Iowa's Tom Vilsack). "The incumbent mayor who came back from 20 points down in only 20 days" . . . (Deedee Corradini in Salt Lake City)
"The congresswoman who won Dan Quayle's old seat in an upset" . . . (Indiana's Jill Long).
Axelrod & Co. can now include in its victory list the skinny unknown from Chicago who in one short year went from a mere 26 percent in the polls to toppling front-runner Hillary Clinton who was a full 22 points ahead of him last August.
"The national numbers mean nothing," said John Kupper, the "K" in AKP&D, last week by phone. "These are not national elections but state by state elections. We have vote goals. We know prior performance models."
In other words, this is now and always has been the sum of political component parts for the Obama operation, not a national popular election but a sophisticated, incremental accumulation of delegates in the primary, and electoral votes come November.
It isn't that Axelrod's team has had no experience losing. Their most recent defeat came in 2006 and it stung. The candidate, Tammy Duckworth, was a charismatic Iraq war veteran, a pilot who lost both legs when her helicopter was shot down. Though Duckworth and AKP&D had a corner on charisma and a lot of cash, they failed to wrest U.S. Rep. Henry Hyde's former seat from Republican control.
Obama can certainly lose this race. But McCain's going to have to find a better way to win it than by invoking Paris Hilton or by sniping in his most recent ad how "life in the spotlight must be grand but for the rest of us, times are tough."
What's tough for McCain is that despite having had a practice run at the presidency once before, it didn't limber him up, cause him to realize that even the elderly now skillfully navigate the Internet or help him craft a "vision thing."
In the short run, jealous jabs at Obama for having too much face time on the covers of Rolling Stone and GQ may appear to close the gap in national polls. But the aggregation of images -- Obama in Germany, Obama with his cute girls and beautiful wife, Obama visiting his grandmother in Hawaii -- is by dribs and drabs helping America feel familiar with him, visualize him on foreign soil, and see him, perhaps, as both human and presidential.
In some ways the tightening numbers work for Obama, not against him.
"No cause for panic," said Kupper. No, indeed, he's off to splash in the Pacific surf with his family.
It's the horse race play. Or, as the Axelrod game goes, you always play the come from behind, even when you're ahead.
CLINTON CAMPAIGN EMAILS
Josh Green somehow got a hold of emails from the Clinton campaign, and as indicated, they will be published tomorrow (Monday, 8/11). Should be quite interesting and uncomfortable for the Clintons. Please see below.
Mike Allen gets an early look at an eagerly-awaited pile of internal Clinton campaign emails, coming in a Josh Green piece in the Atlantic tomorrow, notably a memo from Mark Penn, mentioned by the Times but never printed, that suggested Clinton attack Obama's Americanness:
Penn, the presidential campaign’s chief strategist, wrote in a memo to Clinton excerpted in the article: “I cannot imagine American electing a president during a time of war who is not at his center fundamentally American in his thinking and in his values.”
[snip]The Penn memo suggesting that the campaign target Obama’s “lack of American roots” said in part: “All of these articles about his boyhood in Indonesia and his life in Hawaii are geared towards showing his background is diverse, multicultural and putting that in a new light.“Save it for 2050 … Every speech should contain the line you were born in the middle of America American to the middle class in the middle of the last century. And talk about the basic bargain as about the deeply American values you grew up with, learned as a child and that drive you today. Values of fairness, compassion, responsibility, giving back“Let’s explicitly own ‘American’ in our programs, the speeches and the values. He doesn’t. Make this a new American Century, the American Strategic Energy Fund. Let’s use our logo to make some flags we can give out. Let’s add flag symbols to the backgrounds.”
Mike Allen gets an early look at an eagerly-awaited pile of internal Clinton campaign emails, coming in a Josh Green piece in the Atlantic tomorrow, notably a memo from Mark Penn, mentioned by the Times but never printed, that suggested Clinton attack Obama's Americanness:
Penn, the presidential campaign’s chief strategist, wrote in a memo to Clinton excerpted in the article: “I cannot imagine American electing a president during a time of war who is not at his center fundamentally American in his thinking and in his values.”
[snip]The Penn memo suggesting that the campaign target Obama’s “lack of American roots” said in part: “All of these articles about his boyhood in Indonesia and his life in Hawaii are geared towards showing his background is diverse, multicultural and putting that in a new light.“Save it for 2050 … Every speech should contain the line you were born in the middle of America American to the middle class in the middle of the last century. And talk about the basic bargain as about the deeply American values you grew up with, learned as a child and that drive you today. Values of fairness, compassion, responsibility, giving back“Let’s explicitly own ‘American’ in our programs, the speeches and the values. He doesn’t. Make this a new American Century, the American Strategic Energy Fund. Let’s use our logo to make some flags we can give out. Let’s add flag symbols to the backgrounds.”
Saturday, August 9, 2008
SATURDAY READING--August 9, 2008
Saturday reading: After Edwards
Sam Stein, from whom we first heard of Rielle Hunter, empties his notebook.
A MOMocrats blogger, and ex-Edwards supporter, repudiates him.
Joe Klein offers a dose of sanity.
Hunter's sister wants Edwards to take the DNA test.
Dems debate their platform.
Ryan Grim wonders if the GOP can really get away with mocking scholarship kid Obama.
Celebrity Vs. Otherness (by Nate of FiveThirtyEight election projections)
Something hasn’t felt quite right about the strategy John McCain’s campaign has been using to go after Barack Obama. It’s not a partisan objection to McCain going negative; that’s a rational choice he has to make if he wants a shot at winning. It’s that within the scattershot approach to finding an attack line that sticks, the two main through-lines are in subtextual conflict with one another.
How can someone being portrayed as "the biggest celebrity in the world" also be painted as radical and out of the mainstream? Either Obama is like Britney Spears and Paris Hilton: a fluffy, substanceless, mass-consumed but empty celebrity-for-celebrity’s sake, or he is an unfamiliar and dangerous other with a hidden anti-American agenda.It’s hard to reconcile the two. By trumpeting Obama's popularity, McCain is calling him – by definition – a safe, easily digestible consumer product, broadly acceptable in the mainstream. Thus, McCain boxes himself into a corner when he wants to make the argument not to elect Obama because he’s so far outside the mainstream.
The problem with trying to thread the needle and have it both ways by making both messages stick simultaneously is that if Obama is a dangerous other with a secret America-hating agenda, it’s hard to call him vapid. You can’t be sharp enough to be cunning sleeper and also be an empty airhead.In theory McCain could put out both messages and hope that the audience of persuadable voters self-selects which characterization bothers them about Obama and ignores the other, and that, ironically, the non-deep-thinkers who would turn around and reflexively swallow those attacks wholecloth don’t appreciate how the subtexts work against each other.In practice, the campaign is dependent on the media to repeat the buzzwords over and over and over to help amplify the impressions left by the ads. The media isn’t as likely to participate willingly in the “dangerous radical” game; they might be more willing to ask: “Obama phenomenon: crazy fad or authentic movement?”The pivot is, ironically, an appeal to the cynical American cultural observation of itself, that Americans are often shallow in what they choose to make popular.
This requires the person who embraces the caricature of Obama to see him or herself as not shallow, in opposition to his or her fellow Americans who have installed Obama on his celebrity pedestal. The audience then, is comprised of people who see themselves as above the common culture. (Closet elitists, if you will.)
Moreover, Obama seems more fully prepared for counterattacking the “dangerous other” theme, simply because he’s had a far longer time practicing. He’s been a national phenomenon far less time. It’s also awkward to argue against the celebrity charge. Every politician wants to be popular. And while Obama would love to argue (and has) that his popularity derives from an America hungry for policy differentiation from Republican policymaking that has produced record high wrong track polling marks, that doesn’t convincingly and fully explain his popularity. Obama has personal charisma, and he can't convince us that's not part of it.The incredulity with which Obama responded to the Spears-Hilton ad betrayed his surprise at that new gambit: “Is that the best you can come up with?” And it appears, yes, the McCain camp is finding traction and investing heavily in the theme (over $140,000 day on the Britney ads alone). Given the subtext conflict, and that there is a risk of just as much backlash against the otherness fear politics, and Obama’s deftness at using aikido to turn those attacks around, McCain is better off going with the celebrity line and ditching the otherness line.If nothing else, it undermines one of Obama’s greatest campaign assets – the numbers of people willing to go to their neighbors door to door and persuade on Obama’s behalf. If McCain’s campaign succeeds in caricaturing those supporters themselves as the political equivalent of boy-band tween fans, it might blunt some of that neighbor-to-neighbor outreach effectiveness.
Perhaps it'll ultimately sort out as Obama-as-cunning-stealth-sleeper and Obama's supporters as NYSNC fanboys and fangirls. Of course, caricaturing Americans who want to see an inspiring leader runs the risk of backfiring. Dumping on hope isn't generally a winning strategy.
Sam Stein, from whom we first heard of Rielle Hunter, empties his notebook.
A MOMocrats blogger, and ex-Edwards supporter, repudiates him.
Joe Klein offers a dose of sanity.
Hunter's sister wants Edwards to take the DNA test.
Dems debate their platform.
Ryan Grim wonders if the GOP can really get away with mocking scholarship kid Obama.
Celebrity Vs. Otherness (by Nate of FiveThirtyEight election projections)
Something hasn’t felt quite right about the strategy John McCain’s campaign has been using to go after Barack Obama. It’s not a partisan objection to McCain going negative; that’s a rational choice he has to make if he wants a shot at winning. It’s that within the scattershot approach to finding an attack line that sticks, the two main through-lines are in subtextual conflict with one another.
How can someone being portrayed as "the biggest celebrity in the world" also be painted as radical and out of the mainstream? Either Obama is like Britney Spears and Paris Hilton: a fluffy, substanceless, mass-consumed but empty celebrity-for-celebrity’s sake, or he is an unfamiliar and dangerous other with a hidden anti-American agenda.It’s hard to reconcile the two. By trumpeting Obama's popularity, McCain is calling him – by definition – a safe, easily digestible consumer product, broadly acceptable in the mainstream. Thus, McCain boxes himself into a corner when he wants to make the argument not to elect Obama because he’s so far outside the mainstream.
The problem with trying to thread the needle and have it both ways by making both messages stick simultaneously is that if Obama is a dangerous other with a secret America-hating agenda, it’s hard to call him vapid. You can’t be sharp enough to be cunning sleeper and also be an empty airhead.In theory McCain could put out both messages and hope that the audience of persuadable voters self-selects which characterization bothers them about Obama and ignores the other, and that, ironically, the non-deep-thinkers who would turn around and reflexively swallow those attacks wholecloth don’t appreciate how the subtexts work against each other.In practice, the campaign is dependent on the media to repeat the buzzwords over and over and over to help amplify the impressions left by the ads. The media isn’t as likely to participate willingly in the “dangerous radical” game; they might be more willing to ask: “Obama phenomenon: crazy fad or authentic movement?”The pivot is, ironically, an appeal to the cynical American cultural observation of itself, that Americans are often shallow in what they choose to make popular.
This requires the person who embraces the caricature of Obama to see him or herself as not shallow, in opposition to his or her fellow Americans who have installed Obama on his celebrity pedestal. The audience then, is comprised of people who see themselves as above the common culture. (Closet elitists, if you will.)
Moreover, Obama seems more fully prepared for counterattacking the “dangerous other” theme, simply because he’s had a far longer time practicing. He’s been a national phenomenon far less time. It’s also awkward to argue against the celebrity charge. Every politician wants to be popular. And while Obama would love to argue (and has) that his popularity derives from an America hungry for policy differentiation from Republican policymaking that has produced record high wrong track polling marks, that doesn’t convincingly and fully explain his popularity. Obama has personal charisma, and he can't convince us that's not part of it.The incredulity with which Obama responded to the Spears-Hilton ad betrayed his surprise at that new gambit: “Is that the best you can come up with?” And it appears, yes, the McCain camp is finding traction and investing heavily in the theme (over $140,000 day on the Britney ads alone). Given the subtext conflict, and that there is a risk of just as much backlash against the otherness fear politics, and Obama’s deftness at using aikido to turn those attacks around, McCain is better off going with the celebrity line and ditching the otherness line.If nothing else, it undermines one of Obama’s greatest campaign assets – the numbers of people willing to go to their neighbors door to door and persuade on Obama’s behalf. If McCain’s campaign succeeds in caricaturing those supporters themselves as the political equivalent of boy-band tween fans, it might blunt some of that neighbor-to-neighbor outreach effectiveness.
Perhaps it'll ultimately sort out as Obama-as-cunning-stealth-sleeper and Obama's supporters as NYSNC fanboys and fangirls. Of course, caricaturing Americans who want to see an inspiring leader runs the risk of backfiring. Dumping on hope isn't generally a winning strategy.
What's a 5-Point Lead in the Electoral College?
Andrew Sullivan:
What's A 5 Point National Lead In The Electoral College?
If history is any guide, a landslide.
What's A 5 Point National Lead In The Electoral College?
If history is any guide, a landslide.
Friday, August 8, 2008
Things of Interest
The Pentagon echoes John Kerry's 2004 counterterrorism message.
Obama sells out Invesco's Colorado seats in a day.
The Democrats' platform strengthen's some references to gay rights, weakens others.
Indecision 2008 wants the McCain campaign to formally stalk their comments section.
The Phoenix New Times pours some local cold water on McCain.
And it looks like the worst kind of Clinton chaos will be averted in Denver.
Obama sells out Invesco's Colorado seats in a day.
The Democrats' platform strengthen's some references to gay rights, weakens others.
Indecision 2008 wants the McCain campaign to formally stalk their comments section.
The Phoenix New Times pours some local cold water on McCain.
And it looks like the worst kind of Clinton chaos will be averted in Denver.
DENVER TAKES SHAPE
WashPost: Denver Takes Shape
Friday, August 8th, 2008
Organizers will highlight the role of Republicans and independents at the Democratic convention.
At least one movie is also in the works — read more here.
Friday, August 8th, 2008
Organizers will highlight the role of Republicans and independents at the Democratic convention.
At least one movie is also in the works — read more here.
CONVENTION DRAMA
Note the last two paragraphs re Republicans defining Obama! The following items are from THE NOTE
Obama has already given the Clintons plenty -- and this is his convention, after all. "Two nights out of four featuring the Clintons is not what Obama had in mind for his convention, but he'll have to live with it," Newsweek's Jonathan Alter writes, noting that neither Obama nor the Clintons can stop delegates from voting for whomever they wish.
"The dustup over the Clintons will get resolved, but it's a harbinger of drama to come. Bill Clinton is still sore," Alter continues. "And Barack Obama hasn't quite figured out yet that the men who have been president is a tiny club, and Clinton is the only one whose advice is likely to prove useful."
"What else does she want? As Al Gore learned in 2000, having one Clinton, let alone two, hover over you as you campaign for the presidency can be trying," Katharine Q. Seelye writes in The New York Times. "Either way, she does have leverage. Polling shows that Mrs. Clinton remains as popular among Democrats these days as Mr. Obama, despite his having campaigned for two months as the party nominee."
"The Obama team's patience is being tested again, Obama advisers say," Kenneth T. Walsh writes for US News & World Report.
(And restart more old Clinton drama soon: "Former advisers to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton are in a tizzy over an upcoming piece in the Atlantic Monthly that chronicles the inner workings of the now-defunct campaign," Anne Kornblut writes in The Washington Post. "Of particular concern are nearly 200 internal memos that the author, Josh Green, obtained -- 130 or so of which he plans to scan in and post online. When the piece is published sometime next week, readers will be able to scroll through the memos, from senior strategists such as Mark Penn, Harold Ickes and Geoff Garin, and see what exactly was going on inside the infamously fractured Clinton organization.")
The back and forth with Clinton -- as well as questions about whether her husband will actively campaign for Obama after the convention -- threatens to distract attention from what Obama's backers hope will be one of the convention's central themes: change," Kornblut writes. "Planners are hoping to create an event that looks and feels different from past conventions, with more interactive components and an emphasis on the grass roots, in order to mirror the core message of Obama's candidacy."
(How much of this is about logistics, and how much is about respect? In which area can Obama afford to be more magnanimous?)
Clinton backers got some platform language: "Demeaning portrayals of women cheapen our debates, dampen the dreams of our daughters, and deny us the contributions of too many." And: "Our party is proud that we have put 18 million cracks in the highest glass ceiling."
(Proud that 18 million people voted for someone who isn't going to be the nominee?)
And former President Bill Clinton is locked in for a Wednesday convention speech, putting him in the center of the showcase on the vice presidential nominee's night -- and in the limelight the day after his wife takes the stage in Denver, ABC's Sarah Amos reports.
Yet Clinton could still not answer a simple question in her Web chat with supporters Thursday: Will she allow her name to be placed into nomination? (Obamaland wants a nomination by acclimation, not by roll call -- something that hasn't happened since LBJ claimed the nomination in a party still reeling from JFK's death, in 1964.)
"Sen. Barack Obama's campaign appears reluctant to have any sort of roll call vote at the Democratic convention this month," ABC's Jake Tapper reports. "Why? They have no interest in highlighting the narrowness of his victory."
Gary Hart offers some advice: A vote isn't necessarily bad. "My people put on a massive demonstration [on the convention floor in 1984]. It went on for 10 or 15 minutes," Hart tells Allison Sherry and Anne C. Mulkern of The Denver Post. "They felt very good about it afterward."
Obama may actually believe that the negotiations are "seamless," by why then do we see the cracks?
This is a pretty big split in perceiving the convention's purpose: "I don't think we're looking for catharsis. I think what we're looking for is energy and excitement about the prospects of changing this country."
"Even as Hillary Clinton heads to Las Vegas today in her first solo trip to campaign for Obama, she is holding out the prospect of a drawn-out nominating vote that experts say at best would be a distraction and at worst a disaster," Newsday's Tom Brune and Janie Lorber write.
His biggest agenda item: Curing "Obama fatigue," he told reporters Thursday, per ABC's Sunlen Miller.
He's already comic fodder, and the GOP is getting going (look for the RNC's Hawaii travel guide, complete with tips on where on the islands you can get your tires inflated).
"Although Democrats view the dog days of summer as downtime -- Mr. Obama will take next week off to vacation in Hawaii with friends -- the Republican Party is busy defining its opponent and setting out the terms of the debate that will begin in earnest after Labor Day," Stephen Dinan writes in the Washington Times.
Obama has already given the Clintons plenty -- and this is his convention, after all. "Two nights out of four featuring the Clintons is not what Obama had in mind for his convention, but he'll have to live with it," Newsweek's Jonathan Alter writes, noting that neither Obama nor the Clintons can stop delegates from voting for whomever they wish.
"The dustup over the Clintons will get resolved, but it's a harbinger of drama to come. Bill Clinton is still sore," Alter continues. "And Barack Obama hasn't quite figured out yet that the men who have been president is a tiny club, and Clinton is the only one whose advice is likely to prove useful."
"What else does she want? As Al Gore learned in 2000, having one Clinton, let alone two, hover over you as you campaign for the presidency can be trying," Katharine Q. Seelye writes in The New York Times. "Either way, she does have leverage. Polling shows that Mrs. Clinton remains as popular among Democrats these days as Mr. Obama, despite his having campaigned for two months as the party nominee."
"The Obama team's patience is being tested again, Obama advisers say," Kenneth T. Walsh writes for US News & World Report.
(And restart more old Clinton drama soon: "Former advisers to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton are in a tizzy over an upcoming piece in the Atlantic Monthly that chronicles the inner workings of the now-defunct campaign," Anne Kornblut writes in The Washington Post. "Of particular concern are nearly 200 internal memos that the author, Josh Green, obtained -- 130 or so of which he plans to scan in and post online. When the piece is published sometime next week, readers will be able to scroll through the memos, from senior strategists such as Mark Penn, Harold Ickes and Geoff Garin, and see what exactly was going on inside the infamously fractured Clinton organization.")
The back and forth with Clinton -- as well as questions about whether her husband will actively campaign for Obama after the convention -- threatens to distract attention from what Obama's backers hope will be one of the convention's central themes: change," Kornblut writes. "Planners are hoping to create an event that looks and feels different from past conventions, with more interactive components and an emphasis on the grass roots, in order to mirror the core message of Obama's candidacy."
(How much of this is about logistics, and how much is about respect? In which area can Obama afford to be more magnanimous?)
Clinton backers got some platform language: "Demeaning portrayals of women cheapen our debates, dampen the dreams of our daughters, and deny us the contributions of too many." And: "Our party is proud that we have put 18 million cracks in the highest glass ceiling."
(Proud that 18 million people voted for someone who isn't going to be the nominee?)
And former President Bill Clinton is locked in for a Wednesday convention speech, putting him in the center of the showcase on the vice presidential nominee's night -- and in the limelight the day after his wife takes the stage in Denver, ABC's Sarah Amos reports.
Yet Clinton could still not answer a simple question in her Web chat with supporters Thursday: Will she allow her name to be placed into nomination? (Obamaland wants a nomination by acclimation, not by roll call -- something that hasn't happened since LBJ claimed the nomination in a party still reeling from JFK's death, in 1964.)
"Sen. Barack Obama's campaign appears reluctant to have any sort of roll call vote at the Democratic convention this month," ABC's Jake Tapper reports. "Why? They have no interest in highlighting the narrowness of his victory."
Gary Hart offers some advice: A vote isn't necessarily bad. "My people put on a massive demonstration [on the convention floor in 1984]. It went on for 10 or 15 minutes," Hart tells Allison Sherry and Anne C. Mulkern of The Denver Post. "They felt very good about it afterward."
Obama may actually believe that the negotiations are "seamless," by why then do we see the cracks?
This is a pretty big split in perceiving the convention's purpose: "I don't think we're looking for catharsis. I think what we're looking for is energy and excitement about the prospects of changing this country."
"Even as Hillary Clinton heads to Las Vegas today in her first solo trip to campaign for Obama, she is holding out the prospect of a drawn-out nominating vote that experts say at best would be a distraction and at worst a disaster," Newsday's Tom Brune and Janie Lorber write.
His biggest agenda item: Curing "Obama fatigue," he told reporters Thursday, per ABC's Sunlen Miller.
He's already comic fodder, and the GOP is getting going (look for the RNC's Hawaii travel guide, complete with tips on where on the islands you can get your tires inflated).
"Although Democrats view the dog days of summer as downtime -- Mr. Obama will take next week off to vacation in Hawaii with friends -- the Republican Party is busy defining its opponent and setting out the terms of the debate that will begin in earnest after Labor Day," Stephen Dinan writes in the Washington Times.
Thursday, August 7, 2008
David Gergen on Obama
Andrew Sullivan of the Atlantic Monthly has a quote from David Gergen. Please see below.
Gergen and Obama
07 Aug 2008
Andrew Sullivan: Is it me or has David actually gotten a little angry at the McCain campaign? He's not usually this blunt:
"Here is a man who grew up in a broken home whose father left at a young age and who was raised by a single mother," said David R. Gergen, director of the Center for Public Leadership at Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government, who has previously served as a White House adviser to Presidents Richard M. Nixon, Gerald R. Ford, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton. "It's an admirable story of rising from rags to riches, one that resonates. In many ways he's a modern Horatio Alger."
"Now the McCain campaign wants to create a dramatically different narrative," Gergen continued.
"They want you to see him as a man who went to fancy schools; who has had the beneficiary of an elite life, and is increasingly removed from the mainstream of normal American life. They want to create someone who is 'The Other.' That's what they did for John Kerry. They succeeded in turning his medals of honor in Vietnam into a liability.
"And now the McCain campaign wants to turn Obama's strength into a weakness and make him seem like a celebrity who has nothing to offer but high-blown words."
Gergen and Obama
07 Aug 2008
Andrew Sullivan: Is it me or has David actually gotten a little angry at the McCain campaign? He's not usually this blunt:
"Here is a man who grew up in a broken home whose father left at a young age and who was raised by a single mother," said David R. Gergen, director of the Center for Public Leadership at Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government, who has previously served as a White House adviser to Presidents Richard M. Nixon, Gerald R. Ford, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton. "It's an admirable story of rising from rags to riches, one that resonates. In many ways he's a modern Horatio Alger."
"Now the McCain campaign wants to create a dramatically different narrative," Gergen continued.
"They want you to see him as a man who went to fancy schools; who has had the beneficiary of an elite life, and is increasingly removed from the mainstream of normal American life. They want to create someone who is 'The Other.' That's what they did for John Kerry. They succeeded in turning his medals of honor in Vietnam into a liability.
"And now the McCain campaign wants to turn Obama's strength into a weakness and make him seem like a celebrity who has nothing to offer but high-blown words."
Obama talks Convention, Clintons & Vacation
OBAMA TALKS TO PRESS
The Illinois Senator tries to tamp down speculation of discontent between the two former rivals during a media avail on his flight to Chicago.
“I spoke to Senator Clinton this week…we’re still working out the mechanics of the four days and our staff is in communications with Senator Clinton’s staff but I don’t anticipate any problems.”
Also talks about his relationship with Bill Clinton, his vacation and more. Read details here.
Plus: Clinton says in online Web chat she and Obama will ensure Democrats are “fully unified” going into the fall presidential campaign.
The Illinois Senator tries to tamp down speculation of discontent between the two former rivals during a media avail on his flight to Chicago.
“I spoke to Senator Clinton this week…we’re still working out the mechanics of the four days and our staff is in communications with Senator Clinton’s staff but I don’t anticipate any problems.”
Also talks about his relationship with Bill Clinton, his vacation and more. Read details here.
Plus: Clinton says in online Web chat she and Obama will ensure Democrats are “fully unified” going into the fall presidential campaign.
McCAIN'S ATTACKS
Andrew Sullivan likes Joe Klein's take on McCain's attacks
07 Aug 2008 07:26 am
Joe Klein has a smart take:
"Oh, so now McCain says it's a good idea to inflate your tires. This is something new: He has taken to attacking Obama on positions where he agrees with Obama. Another example: he flayed Obama for his proposal to withdraw from Iraq, then said it was a "pretty good" timetable.
Meanwhile, he also continues to attack Obama for positions Obama hasn't taken or is no longer taking--like Obama's position on offshore drilling, which has become a reluctant yes, in order to get a compromise piece of energy legislation through the Senate. McCain continues to say Obama is opposed. He also says Obama is opposed to nuclear power, which Obama never has been--a position he took some grief about during the Democratic primaries. It's getting hard to keep all of McCain's attacks--and his rules about when it's ok to compromise and when not--straight."
The closer the two are on substantive matters, the more stinging the McCain attacks.
07 Aug 2008 07:26 am
Joe Klein has a smart take:
"Oh, so now McCain says it's a good idea to inflate your tires. This is something new: He has taken to attacking Obama on positions where he agrees with Obama. Another example: he flayed Obama for his proposal to withdraw from Iraq, then said it was a "pretty good" timetable.
Meanwhile, he also continues to attack Obama for positions Obama hasn't taken or is no longer taking--like Obama's position on offshore drilling, which has become a reluctant yes, in order to get a compromise piece of energy legislation through the Senate. McCain continues to say Obama is opposed. He also says Obama is opposed to nuclear power, which Obama never has been--a position he took some grief about during the Democratic primaries. It's getting hard to keep all of McCain's attacks--and his rules about when it's ok to compromise and when not--straight."
The closer the two are on substantive matters, the more stinging the McCain attacks.
Obamas Get 7-Page Spread in Ladies Home Journal
Obamas Get 7-Page Spread in Ladies Home Journal
Thursday, August 7th, 2008
The September cover package features Obama wearing a flag pin with his arm around his wife, who is hugging him back.
Wide-ranging interview focuses on their relationship, how to save money on the pump, and which of their daughters seem to have the personality for politics.
“If anybody went into politics, it would be Sasha, because she’s such a ham…Malia’s kind of shy and waving just a little bit. And Sasha’s just- She’s shaking it.”
* * * * *
Thursday, August 7th, 2008
The September cover package features Obama wearing a flag pin with his arm around his wife, who is hugging him back.
Wide-ranging interview focuses on their relationship, how to save money on the pump, and which of their daughters seem to have the personality for politics.
“If anybody went into politics, it would be Sasha, because she’s such a ham…Malia’s kind of shy and waving just a little bit. And Sasha’s just- She’s shaking it.”
* * * * *
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
The One Gap
This is from Marc Ambinder of The Atlantic Monthly talking about the TIME poll. (please see earlier blog for TIME's poll).
The Gap -- And There Really Is Only One Gap
06 Aug 2008 04:41 pm
It's white males. If McCain wins them by double digits, he wins the election (probably). If Obama keeps the margin to 10 points or less, then he wins the election (probably). Time's latest polling gives McCain a seven point lead in that group with leanrers factored in. Even with a 3% percentage point racial premium fudge factor, it helps explain why Obama still leads. McCain is underperforming right now among white males.
The Gap -- And There Really Is Only One Gap
06 Aug 2008 04:41 pm
It's white males. If McCain wins them by double digits, he wins the election (probably). If Obama keeps the margin to 10 points or less, then he wins the election (probably). Time's latest polling gives McCain a seven point lead in that group with leanrers factored in. Even with a 3% percentage point racial premium fudge factor, it helps explain why Obama still leads. McCain is underperforming right now among white males.
CBS POLL
July 16 6:00 AM
CBS Poll: Obama Leads, But Race Fluid
OBAMA 45
MCCAIN 39
Barack Obama leads John McCain 45 percent to 39 percent in the latest CBS News/New York Times poll of registered voters nationwide. But the race appears more fluid than the 2004 battle between George Bush and John Kerry
CBS Poll: Obama Leads, But Race Fluid
OBAMA 45
MCCAIN 39
Barack Obama leads John McCain 45 percent to 39 percent in the latest CBS News/New York Times poll of registered voters nationwide. But the race appears more fluid than the 2004 battle between George Bush and John Kerry
Obama/Bayh Talk Soars
TIME’s Newton-Small reports the dynamic duo wooed locals at Schoop’s Diner in Portage Wednesday afternoon, shaking hands with seemingly star-struck patrons.
Obama spokesman Gibbs tells reporters: “We’re here in Indiana today because for the first time in three decades a Democrat has a real chance of winning here.”
Asked if Bayh as No. 2 could up his chances: “He’s clearly one of the most popular leaders here in Indiana. We’re fortunate to have his support.”
There was also a very expensive (and aggressive) high-definition TV crew shooting what appeared to be ad footage as the two worked the room.
Plus: NY Times digs deeper into Wednesday’s joint events.
Obama spokesman Gibbs tells reporters: “We’re here in Indiana today because for the first time in three decades a Democrat has a real chance of winning here.”
Asked if Bayh as No. 2 could up his chances: “He’s clearly one of the most popular leaders here in Indiana. We’re fortunate to have his support.”
There was also a very expensive (and aggressive) high-definition TV crew shooting what appeared to be ad footage as the two worked the room.
Plus: NY Times digs deeper into Wednesday’s joint events.
New National Numbers--TIME MAGAZINE
TIME MAGAZINE
Obama 46, McCain 41
Read more — including which candidate has made gains since June — here.
Dates conducted: July 31-August 4. Error margin: 3 points.
Obama 46, McCain 41
Read more — including which candidate has made gains since June — here.
Dates conducted: July 31-August 4. Error margin: 3 points.
STATE POLLS, EARLY BUT INTERESTING
FROM NBC'S CHUCK TODD:
*** Obama builds on map lead: Obama has expanded his lead over McCain in NBC’s latest electoral map. Obama now has 217 electoral votes in his column versus 189 for McCain, building on his 210-189 edge from last month. There are 132 votes in the toss-up category.
Here are the changes from last month, all of them moving in Obama’s direction: 1) Iowa moves from toss-up to Lean Obama, continuing this trend of the Illinois senator over-performing in the "region" of Illinois; 2) New Jersey moves from Lean Obama to Likely Obama; and 3) Oregon moves from Lean Obama to Likely Obama. In another year, both of those states would not have moved so early, but it's pretty clear the GOP and McCain will not be seriously contesting either one.
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (190 electoral votes)Lean Obama: IA, MN, WI (27 votes)Toss-up: CO, FL, MI, MO, NV, NM, NH, OH, PA, VA (132 votes)Lean McCain: AK, GA, IN, MT, NC, ND, SD (53 votes)Likely McCain: AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (136 votes)
*** Not all toss-ups are equal: If this were October 26 instead of August 6, we probably wouldn’t have this many toss-ups states on our map. Florida, Missouri, and Nevada would move into the Lean McCain column, while Michigan, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania would move into Obama’s. That would give Obama a 260-232 electoral lead over McCain, and it would leave us with four pure toss-ups: Colorado, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia. And under that scenario, McCain would need to win ALL THREE of Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia to win or break a 269-269 tie, which would probably favor Obama.
*** Leaning towers of toss-ups: As for which of the "lean" states could end up in the toss-up category, keep an eye on Wisconsin, Indiana, and North Carolina. The RNC believes all is not lost yet in Wisconsin, and that at some point there will be some snapback and the state will get close again -- possibly after the GOP convention finishes up in neighboring Minnesota. As for the other two, ask yourself this question: If the Dem primary hadn't put Indiana and North Carolina on the map as primary states, would Obama be as competitive? This is a case where the drawn out primary might have helped Obama, even as their campaign still mutters about the lost time. Of the two, GOP strategists we've talked to believe North Carolina will move into the toss-up category before Indiana, but all that could change with a stroke of the VP pen.
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*** Obama builds on map lead: Obama has expanded his lead over McCain in NBC’s latest electoral map. Obama now has 217 electoral votes in his column versus 189 for McCain, building on his 210-189 edge from last month. There are 132 votes in the toss-up category.
Here are the changes from last month, all of them moving in Obama’s direction: 1) Iowa moves from toss-up to Lean Obama, continuing this trend of the Illinois senator over-performing in the "region" of Illinois; 2) New Jersey moves from Lean Obama to Likely Obama; and 3) Oregon moves from Lean Obama to Likely Obama. In another year, both of those states would not have moved so early, but it's pretty clear the GOP and McCain will not be seriously contesting either one.
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (190 electoral votes)Lean Obama: IA, MN, WI (27 votes)Toss-up: CO, FL, MI, MO, NV, NM, NH, OH, PA, VA (132 votes)Lean McCain: AK, GA, IN, MT, NC, ND, SD (53 votes)Likely McCain: AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (136 votes)
*** Not all toss-ups are equal: If this were October 26 instead of August 6, we probably wouldn’t have this many toss-ups states on our map. Florida, Missouri, and Nevada would move into the Lean McCain column, while Michigan, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania would move into Obama’s. That would give Obama a 260-232 electoral lead over McCain, and it would leave us with four pure toss-ups: Colorado, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia. And under that scenario, McCain would need to win ALL THREE of Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia to win or break a 269-269 tie, which would probably favor Obama.
*** Leaning towers of toss-ups: As for which of the "lean" states could end up in the toss-up category, keep an eye on Wisconsin, Indiana, and North Carolina. The RNC believes all is not lost yet in Wisconsin, and that at some point there will be some snapback and the state will get close again -- possibly after the GOP convention finishes up in neighboring Minnesota. As for the other two, ask yourself this question: If the Dem primary hadn't put Indiana and North Carolina on the map as primary states, would Obama be as competitive? This is a case where the drawn out primary might have helped Obama, even as their campaign still mutters about the lost time. Of the two, GOP strategists we've talked to believe North Carolina will move into the toss-up category before Indiana, but all that could change with a stroke of the VP pen.
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McCAIN'S GREEN-EYED MONSTER by MAUREEN DOWD--THE NEW YORK TIMES
August 6, 2008
McCain’s Green-Eyed Monster
By MAUREEN DOWD
WASHINGTON
Not since Iago and Othello obsessed on the comely Cassio, not since Richard of Gloucester killed his two nephews, not since Nixon and Johnson glowered at the glittering J.F.K., has there been such an unseemly outpouring of boy envy.
Bill Clinton, Jesse Jackson and John Edwards have all been crazed with envy over the ascendance of the new “It” guy, Barack Obama.
Unlike his wife, Bill Clinton — the master of fake sincerity — still continues to openly begrudge his party’s betrothed.
Asked by Kate Snow of ABC News in Africa whether Obama was ready to be president, Clinton gave a classic Clintonian answer: “You could argue that no one’s ever ready to be president.”
As always, the Big Dog was more concerned with himself — asserting that he’s not a racist — than his party. Bill Clinton is not a racist. We can posit that. But he did play subtle racial politics in the primary. It’s way past time for him to accept the fact that there’s a new wunderkind in town.
Just as Bill Clinton looks at Obama and sees his own oblivion, so does Jesse Jackson. As Shelby Steele wrote in The Wall Street Journal, Jackson and his generation of civil rights leaders “made keeping whites ‘on the hook’ the most sacred article of the post-’60s black identity,” equality pursued by manipulating white guilt.
Now John McCain is pea-green with envy. That’s the only explanation for why a man who prides himself on honor, a man who vowed not to take the low road in the campaign, having been mugged by W. and Rove in South Carolina in 2000, is engaging in a festival of juvenilia.
The Arizona senator who built his reputation on being a brave proponent of big solutions is running a schoolyard campaign about tire gauges and Paris Hilton, childishly accusing his opponent of being too serious, too popular and not patriotic enough.
Even his own mother, the magical 96-year-old Roberta McCain, let slip that she thought the Paris Hilton-Britney Spears ad was “kinda stupid.”
McCain’s 2000 strategist, John Weaver, was equally blunt with Newsweek’s Jonathan Alter: “It’s hard to imagine America responding to ‘small ball’ when we have all these problems.”
Some of McCain’s old pals in the Senate are cringing at what they see as his soulless transformation into what he once scorned.
“John’s eaten up with envy,” said one. “His image of himself was always the handsome, celebrity flyboy.
“Now somebody else is the celebrity,” the colleague continued, while John looks in the mirror and sees his face marred by skin cancer and looks at the TV and sees his dashing self-image replaced by visions of William Frawley, with Letterman jokes about his membership in the ham radio club and adventures with wagon trains.
For McCain, being cool meant being a rogue, not a policy wonk; but Obama manages to be a cool College Bowl type, which must irk McCain, who liked to play up his bad-boy cool. Now the guy in the back of the class is shooting spitballs at the class pet and is coming off as more juvenile than daring.
Around the McCain campaign, they grouse that Obama “hasn’t bled.” He hasn’t bled literally, in military service, just like W., the last holder of an E-ZPass who sped past McCain. And he hasn’t paid his dues in the Senate, since he basically just stopped by for directions to the Oval Office.
As a new senator, Obama was not only precocious enough to pounce on turf that McCain had invested years in, such as campaign finance lobbying, ethics reform and earmarks. When Obama did reach across the aisle for a mentor, it was to the staid Richard Lugar of Indiana, not to the salty Republican of choice for Democrats, McCain.
When the Illinois freshman took back a private promise to join McCain’s campaign finance reform effort, McCain told his aide Mark Salter to “brush him back.” Salter sent an over-the-top vituperative letter to Obama. “I guess I beaned him instead,” Salter told Newsweek’s Howard Fineman.
McCain could dismiss W. as a lightweight, but he knows Obama’s smart. Obama wrote his own books, while McCain’s were written by Salter. McCain knows he’s the affirmative action scion of admirals who might not have gotten through Annapolis without being a legacy. Obama didn’t even tell Harvard Law School that he was black on his application.
McCain upbraids Obama for being a poppet, while he’s becoming a puppet. His mouth is moving but the words coming out belong to his new hard-boiled strategist, Steve Schmidt, a Rove protégé, nicknamed “The Bullet” for his bald pate.
Schmidt has turned Mr. Straight Talk into Mr. Desperate Straits. It’s not a good trade.
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