STATE POLLS, EARLY BUT INTERESTING

FROM NBC'S CHUCK TODD:

*** Obama builds on map lead: Obama has expanded his lead over McCain in NBC’s latest electoral map. Obama now has 217 electoral votes in his column versus 189 for McCain, building on his 210-189 edge from last month. There are 132 votes in the toss-up category.

Here are the changes from last month, all of them moving in Obama’s direction: 1) Iowa moves from toss-up to Lean Obama, continuing this trend of the Illinois senator over-performing in the "region" of Illinois; 2) New Jersey moves from Lean Obama to Likely Obama; and 3) Oregon moves from Lean Obama to Likely Obama. In another year, both of those states would not have moved so early, but it's pretty clear the GOP and McCain will not be seriously contesting either one.

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (190 electoral votes)Lean Obama: IA, MN, WI (27 votes)Toss-up: CO, FL, MI, MO, NV, NM, NH, OH, PA, VA (132 votes)Lean McCain: AK, GA, IN, MT, NC, ND, SD (53 votes)Likely McCain: AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (136 votes)

*** Not all toss-ups are equal: If this were October 26 instead of August 6, we probably wouldn’t have this many toss-ups states on our map. Florida, Missouri, and Nevada would move into the Lean McCain column, while Michigan, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania would move into Obama’s. That would give Obama a 260-232 electoral lead over McCain, and it would leave us with four pure toss-ups: Colorado, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia. And under that scenario, McCain would need to win ALL THREE of Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia to win or break a 269-269 tie, which would probably favor Obama.

*** Leaning towers of toss-ups: As for which of the "lean" states could end up in the toss-up category, keep an eye on Wisconsin, Indiana, and North Carolina. The RNC believes all is not lost yet in Wisconsin, and that at some point there will be some snapback and the state will get close again -- possibly after the GOP convention finishes up in neighboring Minnesota. As for the other two, ask yourself this question: If the Dem primary hadn't put Indiana and North Carolina on the map as primary states, would Obama be as competitive? This is a case where the drawn out primary might have helped Obama, even as their campaign still mutters about the lost time. Of the two, GOP strategists we've talked to believe North Carolina will move into the toss-up category before Indiana, but all that could change with a stroke of the VP pen.
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