THINGS TO LOOK FOR BEFORE ELECTION & ELECTION NIGHT

by Nate Silver--FiveThirtyEight.com

What Would 'Tightening' Look Like?
There is a lot of discussion going on about whether the national race is tightening; our model concludes that it is not. But what would meaningful 'tightening' look like in terms of the Electoral College?

Let me be oddly specific here. In order to conclude the Electoral College has tightened to the point where the outcome on November 4 is at least moderately uncertain, I would want to see the following between now and the election. Call it the 2/2/2 condition:

John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania.

If this condition is met, then I think there could be some drama on Election Night (though by no means would McCain be the favorite). If not, then it's very hard to imagine McCain winning.

Charlie Cook (National Journal) and Chuck Todd (NBC Political Director)


Cook:

"It's never over 'til it's over, but it sure as hell looks over"
Todd:

"McCain folks say if they can get it to within 4% nationally, then they can get there. But 7%?... This goes ... to Obama looking at 325 electoral."

Cook:

"Once you get over 4-5 points, it's the tipping point. 6, it's landslide territory. We're at the tipping point, it's at the high end, headed over 300 electoral votes easily."

Todd:

"Indiana, Kentucky, Georgia, Virginia are the ones to watch.

If we're calling those states for Obama before 8 pm, then it goes to Obama. .. in that first hour. ...

Indiana in the first hour for McCain, and Va. too close to call, the longer it takes to call Virginia, the better it is for McCain....

Obama has the big advantage on the early voting."