Some of what Obama said on "On Air with Ryan Seacrest."
On Halloween:
“I'm gonna be a pumpkin ... Here's the problem -- this will be the first year where I don't personally take the girls out. The reason is because these days when I go out it becomes a big scene. Last year I wore a rubber mask and so people didn't know who I was and we were able to have a great time. This year even if I wear a rubber mask if I've got six Secret Service around me it probably attracts a little bit more."
On plans for Tuesday:
“I'll vote first thing in the morning, then take the girls to school probably. And then we will fly to a state fairly close to home that's a battleground state. I'll do some campaigning and handshaking and all that good stuff. And then come back and I will have my traditional election day basketball game. We started this tradition in Iowa and we've been doing it every Election Day since. Hopefully I won't brak my nose for the big night, get an elbow in the teeth.” After the game he'll have dinner with his family before heading to downtown Chicago to watch the results come in.
On McCain:
“I think that Sen. McCain is a decent man. You won't hear me go around saying he's a bad person. I think there's no doubt he's much closer to George Bush's philosophy than I am…If you think that what we've been doing is working, then John McCain's your choice.”
On visiting his ailing grandmother in Hawaii:
“Well, you know, obviously it was tough … She's not doing great. She's pretty sick. But I was glad that I did what I did which was to go her and see her and make sure I told her the only reason I'm doing what I'm doing is because of her. It's a pretty big deal for her, no doubt about it.”
On sleep:
“What happens is … if you do it often enough -- long enough -- you start being able to do things you didn't think you'd be able to do. You can manage on four hours of sleep…No matter how tough the situation is I will go to sleep.”
On the election:
"Whoever you're voting for … get out there and vote. This is one of those game changing elections, one of those defining moments … Probably the next 20 years is going to be be decided by where we are now ... I think what we really need to do is move in a new direction in terms of making health care affordable."
Friday, October 31, 2008
Thursday, October 30, 2008
THE ECONOMIST ENDORSES OBAMA
The Economist Endorses Obama, Trashes McCain
The omniscient voice pronounces from across the pond:
"....the Candidate McCain of the past six months has too often seemed the victim of political sorcery, his good features magically inverted, his bad ones exaggerated. The fiscal conservative who once tackled Mr Bush over his unaffordable tax cuts now proposes not just to keep the cuts, but to deepen them. The man who denounced the religious right as "agents of intolerance" now embraces theocratic culture warriors. The campaigner against ethanol subsidies (who had a better record on global warming than most Democrats) came out in favour of a petrol-tax holiday. It has not all disappeared: his support for free trade has never wavered. Yet rather than heading towards the centre after he won the nomination, Mr McCain moved to the right.
Meanwhile his temperament, always perhaps his weak spot, has been found wanting. Sometimes the seat-of-the-pants method still works: his gut reaction over Georgia--to warn Russia off immediately--was the right one. Yet on the great issue of the campaign, the financial crisis, he has seemed all at sea, emitting panic and indecision. Mr McCain has never been particularly interested in economics, but, unlike Mr Obama, he has made little effort to catch up or to bring in good advisers (Doug Holtz-Eakin being the impressive exception).
The choice of Sarah Palin epitomised the sloppiness. It is not just that she is an unconvincing stand-in, nor even that she seems to have been chosen partly for her views on divisive social issues, notably abortion. Mr McCain made his most important appointment having met her just twice.
Ironically, given that he first won over so many independents by speaking his mind, the case for Mr McCain comes down to a piece of artifice: vote for him on the assumption that he does not believe a word of what he has been saying. Once he reaches the White House, runs this argument, he will put Mrs Palin back in her box, throw away his unrealistic tax plan and begin negotiations with the Democratic Congress. That is plausible; but it is a long way from the convincing case that Mr McCain could have made. Had he become president in 2000 instead of Mr Bush, the world might have had fewer problems. But this time it is beset by problems, and Mr McCain has not proved that he knows how to deal with them.
The omniscient voice pronounces from across the pond:
"....the Candidate McCain of the past six months has too often seemed the victim of political sorcery, his good features magically inverted, his bad ones exaggerated. The fiscal conservative who once tackled Mr Bush over his unaffordable tax cuts now proposes not just to keep the cuts, but to deepen them. The man who denounced the religious right as "agents of intolerance" now embraces theocratic culture warriors. The campaigner against ethanol subsidies (who had a better record on global warming than most Democrats) came out in favour of a petrol-tax holiday. It has not all disappeared: his support for free trade has never wavered. Yet rather than heading towards the centre after he won the nomination, Mr McCain moved to the right.
Meanwhile his temperament, always perhaps his weak spot, has been found wanting. Sometimes the seat-of-the-pants method still works: his gut reaction over Georgia--to warn Russia off immediately--was the right one. Yet on the great issue of the campaign, the financial crisis, he has seemed all at sea, emitting panic and indecision. Mr McCain has never been particularly interested in economics, but, unlike Mr Obama, he has made little effort to catch up or to bring in good advisers (Doug Holtz-Eakin being the impressive exception).
The choice of Sarah Palin epitomised the sloppiness. It is not just that she is an unconvincing stand-in, nor even that she seems to have been chosen partly for her views on divisive social issues, notably abortion. Mr McCain made his most important appointment having met her just twice.
Ironically, given that he first won over so many independents by speaking his mind, the case for Mr McCain comes down to a piece of artifice: vote for him on the assumption that he does not believe a word of what he has been saying. Once he reaches the White House, runs this argument, he will put Mrs Palin back in her box, throw away his unrealistic tax plan and begin negotiations with the Democratic Congress. That is plausible; but it is a long way from the convincing case that Mr McCain could have made. Had he become president in 2000 instead of Mr Bush, the world might have had fewer problems. But this time it is beset by problems, and Mr McCain has not proved that he knows how to deal with them.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
TEXANS JOIN NYers
The Field: Texans Getting Out Out Of Texas To GOTV
Another small cog in the Obama campaign's massive get-out-the-vote machine. The campaign wants committed Obama volunteers in Texas to vote early, and then sign up for one of a number of bus tours to other battleground states. All travel and lodging expenses are paid for.
Team Buckeye: Austin to Ohio -- 10/31 to 11/05
Depart Austin, TX on Friday 10/31 at 12 pm
Depart Dallas, TX on Friday 10/31 at 4 pm
Arrive Cincinnati, OH on Saturday 11/01 Morning
Return Dallas, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Afternoon
Return Austin, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Evening
Team Simpson: Austin/Waco/Dallas to Missouri -- 10/31 to 11/05
Depart Austin, TX on Friday 10/31 at 7 pm
Depart Waco, TX on Friday 10/31 at 8 pm
Depart Dallas, TX on Friday 10/31 at 10 pm
Arrive Springfield, MO on Saturday 11/01 Morning
Return Dallas, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Afternoon
Return Waco, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Afternoon
Return Austin, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Evening
Team Riverwalk: San Antonio/Austin to New Mexico -- 10/31 to 11/05
Depart San Antonio, TX on Friday 10/31 at 6 pm
Depart Austin, TX on Friday 10/31 at 8 pm
Arrive Albuquerque, NM on Saturday 11/01 Morning
Return Austin, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Evening
Return San Antonio, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Evening
Another small cog in the Obama campaign's massive get-out-the-vote machine. The campaign wants committed Obama volunteers in Texas to vote early, and then sign up for one of a number of bus tours to other battleground states. All travel and lodging expenses are paid for.
Team Buckeye: Austin to Ohio -- 10/31 to 11/05
Depart Austin, TX on Friday 10/31 at 12 pm
Depart Dallas, TX on Friday 10/31 at 4 pm
Arrive Cincinnati, OH on Saturday 11/01 Morning
Return Dallas, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Afternoon
Return Austin, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Evening
Team Simpson: Austin/Waco/Dallas to Missouri -- 10/31 to 11/05
Depart Austin, TX on Friday 10/31 at 7 pm
Depart Waco, TX on Friday 10/31 at 8 pm
Depart Dallas, TX on Friday 10/31 at 10 pm
Arrive Springfield, MO on Saturday 11/01 Morning
Return Dallas, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Afternoon
Return Waco, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Afternoon
Return Austin, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Evening
Team Riverwalk: San Antonio/Austin to New Mexico -- 10/31 to 11/05
Depart San Antonio, TX on Friday 10/31 at 6 pm
Depart Austin, TX on Friday 10/31 at 8 pm
Arrive Albuquerque, NM on Saturday 11/01 Morning
Return Austin, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Evening
Return San Antonio, TX on Wednesday 11/05 Evening
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
FIRST LOOK AT OBAMACAST
The Obamacast (from Ben Smith of The Politico)
The Times gets a first look:
The trailer is heavy in strings, flags, presidential imagery and some Americana filmed by Davis Guggenheim, whose father was the campaign documentarian of Robert F. Kennedy. As the screen flashes scenes of suburban lawns, a freight train and Mr. Obama seated at a kitchen table with a group of white, apparently working-class voters, Mr. Obama says: “We’ve seen over the last eight years how decisions by a president can have a profound effect on the course of history and on American lives; much that’s wrong with our country goes back even farther than that.”
Then, while standing before a stately desk and an American flag, Mr. Obama, in a suit, says: “We’ve been talking about the same problems for decades and nothing is ever done to solve them. For the past 20 months, I’ve traveled the length of this country, and Michelle and I have met so many Americans who are looking for real and lasting change that makes a difference in their lives.”
There will also be a live section from a Florida rally.
Sounds gripping, no?
The Times gets a first look:
The trailer is heavy in strings, flags, presidential imagery and some Americana filmed by Davis Guggenheim, whose father was the campaign documentarian of Robert F. Kennedy. As the screen flashes scenes of suburban lawns, a freight train and Mr. Obama seated at a kitchen table with a group of white, apparently working-class voters, Mr. Obama says: “We’ve seen over the last eight years how decisions by a president can have a profound effect on the course of history and on American lives; much that’s wrong with our country goes back even farther than that.”
Then, while standing before a stately desk and an American flag, Mr. Obama, in a suit, says: “We’ve been talking about the same problems for decades and nothing is ever done to solve them. For the past 20 months, I’ve traveled the length of this country, and Michelle and I have met so many Americans who are looking for real and lasting change that makes a difference in their lives.”
There will also be a live section from a Florida rally.
Sounds gripping, no?
LA TIMES/BLOOMBERG POLL OF OHIO, FLORIDA
LA TIMES/BLOOMBERG
New Polls: Obama Ahead in Buckeye, Sunshine States
From LA Times/Bloomberg, among likely voters:
Ohio: Obama 49, McCain 40
Florida: Obama 50, McCain 43
New Polls: Obama Ahead in Buckeye, Sunshine States
From LA Times/Bloomberg, among likely voters:
Ohio: Obama 49, McCain 40
Florida: Obama 50, McCain 43
FLORIDA VOTING HOURS EXTENDED
October 28, 2008
Categories: Barack Obama BY BEN SMITH OF THE POLITICO
Crist extends voting hours
This is a very big deal: Florida Governor Charlie Crist, to the shock and dismay of Florida Republicans, just moved to extend early voting hours, a move likely to widen the Democrats' lead under a program on which the Obama campaign has intensely focused.
"He just blew Florida for John McCain," one plugged in Florida Republican just told me.
The Buzz reports:
At a hastily arranged news conference, Crist said the right to vote is sacred and that "many have fought and died for this right." He said he consulted a leading Democratic legislator, Rep. Dan Gelber of Miami Beach, before issuing his order, and that Gelber knew of a similar order issued by Gov. Jeb Bush in 2002 that dealt with helping voters deal with new equipment.
As to the perception that more early voting helps Democrats, Crist said: "This is not a political decision. This is a people decision."
Democrats had urged the extension, which means that votes will be cast 12 hours a day, not eight hours a day.
Categories: Barack Obama BY BEN SMITH OF THE POLITICO
Crist extends voting hours
This is a very big deal: Florida Governor Charlie Crist, to the shock and dismay of Florida Republicans, just moved to extend early voting hours, a move likely to widen the Democrats' lead under a program on which the Obama campaign has intensely focused.
"He just blew Florida for John McCain," one plugged in Florida Republican just told me.
The Buzz reports:
At a hastily arranged news conference, Crist said the right to vote is sacred and that "many have fought and died for this right." He said he consulted a leading Democratic legislator, Rep. Dan Gelber of Miami Beach, before issuing his order, and that Gelber knew of a similar order issued by Gov. Jeb Bush in 2002 that dealt with helping voters deal with new equipment.
As to the perception that more early voting helps Democrats, Crist said: "This is not a political decision. This is a people decision."
Democrats had urged the extension, which means that votes will be cast 12 hours a day, not eight hours a day.
OBAMA ON JON STEWART WEDNESDAY (10/29) NIGHT
Comedy Central Release on Obama Appearing on "The Daily Show"
SENATOR BARACK OBAMA TO APPEAR AS A GUEST ON
"THE DAILY SHOW WITH JON STEWART"
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 29 AT 11:00 P.M.
NEW YORK, October 28, 2008 -- Senator Barack Obama will make his fourth appearance as a guest on the Emmy® and Peabody® Award-winning "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart on Wednesday, October 29 at 11:00 p.m. (ET/PT). Obama's last appearance on “The Daily Show” was on April 21, the eve of the Pennsylvania Primary. The Democratic nominee for President of the United States also appeared on August 22, 2007; and November 7, 2005. Obama will appear via satellite from Florida where he continues his campaign with less than one week until Election Day.
SENATOR BARACK OBAMA TO APPEAR AS A GUEST ON
"THE DAILY SHOW WITH JON STEWART"
WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 29 AT 11:00 P.M.
NEW YORK, October 28, 2008 -- Senator Barack Obama will make his fourth appearance as a guest on the Emmy® and Peabody® Award-winning "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart on Wednesday, October 29 at 11:00 p.m. (ET/PT). Obama's last appearance on “The Daily Show” was on April 21, the eve of the Pennsylvania Primary. The Democratic nominee for President of the United States also appeared on August 22, 2007; and November 7, 2005. Obama will appear via satellite from Florida where he continues his campaign with less than one week until Election Day.
TIME MAGAZINE--CLOSING ARGUMENT
McCain and Palin tried to build fences, looking for safe ground; Obama bulldozed them, in the search for common ground.
It's idealistic except that, especially now, you get the feeling that the reason Obama's drawing crowds of 50,000, 75,000, 100,000 in even purple and red states is that people want to see what Different might look like.
"Despite what our opponents may claim, there are no real and fake parts of this country," he said. "We are one nation, all of us proud, all of us patriots. There are patriots who supported this war in Iraq and patriots who opposed it; patriots who believe in Democratic policies and those who believe in Republican policies.
"The men and women who serve in our battlefields may be Democrats and Republicans and Independents, but they have fought together and bled together and some died together under the same proud flag. They have not served a Red America or a Blue America — they have served the United States of America."
It's idealistic except that, especially now, you get the feeling that the reason Obama's drawing crowds of 50,000, 75,000, 100,000 in even purple and red states is that people want to see what Different might look like.
"Despite what our opponents may claim, there are no real and fake parts of this country," he said. "We are one nation, all of us proud, all of us patriots. There are patriots who supported this war in Iraq and patriots who opposed it; patriots who believe in Democratic policies and those who believe in Republican policies.
"The men and women who serve in our battlefields may be Democrats and Republicans and Independents, but they have fought together and bled together and some died together under the same proud flag. They have not served a Red America or a Blue America — they have served the United States of America."
Monday, October 27, 2008
THINGS TO LOOK FOR BEFORE ELECTION & ELECTION NIGHT
by Nate Silver--FiveThirtyEight.com
What Would 'Tightening' Look Like?
There is a lot of discussion going on about whether the national race is tightening; our model concludes that it is not. But what would meaningful 'tightening' look like in terms of the Electoral College?
Let me be oddly specific here. In order to conclude the Electoral College has tightened to the point where the outcome on November 4 is at least moderately uncertain, I would want to see the following between now and the election. Call it the 2/2/2 condition:
John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania.
If this condition is met, then I think there could be some drama on Election Night (though by no means would McCain be the favorite). If not, then it's very hard to imagine McCain winning.
Charlie Cook (National Journal) and Chuck Todd (NBC Political Director)
Cook:
"It's never over 'til it's over, but it sure as hell looks over"
Todd:
"McCain folks say if they can get it to within 4% nationally, then they can get there. But 7%?... This goes ... to Obama looking at 325 electoral."
Cook:
"Once you get over 4-5 points, it's the tipping point. 6, it's landslide territory. We're at the tipping point, it's at the high end, headed over 300 electoral votes easily."
Todd:
"Indiana, Kentucky, Georgia, Virginia are the ones to watch.
If we're calling those states for Obama before 8 pm, then it goes to Obama. .. in that first hour. ...
Indiana in the first hour for McCain, and Va. too close to call, the longer it takes to call Virginia, the better it is for McCain....
Obama has the big advantage on the early voting."
What Would 'Tightening' Look Like?
There is a lot of discussion going on about whether the national race is tightening; our model concludes that it is not. But what would meaningful 'tightening' look like in terms of the Electoral College?
Let me be oddly specific here. In order to conclude the Electoral College has tightened to the point where the outcome on November 4 is at least moderately uncertain, I would want to see the following between now and the election. Call it the 2/2/2 condition:
John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania.
If this condition is met, then I think there could be some drama on Election Night (though by no means would McCain be the favorite). If not, then it's very hard to imagine McCain winning.
Charlie Cook (National Journal) and Chuck Todd (NBC Political Director)
Cook:
"It's never over 'til it's over, but it sure as hell looks over"
Todd:
"McCain folks say if they can get it to within 4% nationally, then they can get there. But 7%?... This goes ... to Obama looking at 325 electoral."
Cook:
"Once you get over 4-5 points, it's the tipping point. 6, it's landslide territory. We're at the tipping point, it's at the high end, headed over 300 electoral votes easily."
Todd:
"Indiana, Kentucky, Georgia, Virginia are the ones to watch.
If we're calling those states for Obama before 8 pm, then it goes to Obama. .. in that first hour. ...
Indiana in the first hour for McCain, and Va. too close to call, the longer it takes to call Virginia, the better it is for McCain....
Obama has the big advantage on the early voting."
Canvassing in Erie, PA
Folks: Just got back from a day of canvassing in a middle-class white
suburb of Erie -- Millcreek -- for Barack. Results were very good. My
canvassing partner and I talked face to face to about 40 people and
ID'd 19 Obama supporters, 3 undecided and 6 McCain. The "traditional"
white Democrats in this neighborhood were very enthusiastic about Obama
and Obama/Biden signs were sprouting like mushrooms.
HOWEVER, the Erie staff is genuinely concerned that McCain could take
Pennsylvania, and they need volunteers badly. I know thatObama HQ in
Chicago is currently asking people from upstate NY to go to PA rather
than OH. So, if you can't go as far as Ohio, but want to make a big
difference, how about Erie next weekend? Or, if possible, Monday Nov.
3 and/or election day?
This thing is NOT over. Do NOT flake out. If you can volunteer, DO IT!
suburb of Erie -- Millcreek -- for Barack. Results were very good. My
canvassing partner and I talked face to face to about 40 people and
ID'd 19 Obama supporters, 3 undecided and 6 McCain. The "traditional"
white Democrats in this neighborhood were very enthusiastic about Obama
and Obama/Biden signs were sprouting like mushrooms.
HOWEVER, the Erie staff is genuinely concerned that McCain could take
Pennsylvania, and they need volunteers badly. I know thatObama HQ in
Chicago is currently asking people from upstate NY to go to PA rather
than OH. So, if you can't go as far as Ohio, but want to make a big
difference, how about Erie next weekend? Or, if possible, Monday Nov.
3 and/or election day?
This thing is NOT over. Do NOT flake out. If you can volunteer, DO IT!
Sunday, October 26, 2008
MICHELLE OBAMA ON TONIGHT SHOW, MONDAY, 10/27
Michelle Obama to Hit the "Tonight" Show Monday, OCTOBER 27
The first lady hopeful swings by Jay Leno's studio in Burbank.
Airs at 11:30 pm ET/PT.
The first lady hopeful swings by Jay Leno's studio in Burbank.
Airs at 11:30 pm ET/PT.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
On the Road for Barack Obama by Sandy Frankel,Supervisor of the Town of Brighton
On the Road for Barack Obama
By Sandy Frankel
In what is possibly the most important election of our lifetime, I didn’t want to sit on the sidelines when our country so desperately needs to move in a different direction after eight years of decline under the Bush administration. Our country and our communities are suffering.
We now have a fiscal crisis of massive proportion with an enormous national deficit and debt burden, which future generations will shoulder. We have struggled under the great physical and economic strain of fighting two wars. We have lost respect around the globe.
Change is essential if we are to restore our economic strength and stimulate job growth, create a clean environment and healthy planet for our children and grandchildren, improve educational outcomes so that our students become productive citizens, ensure access to affordable quality health care, and end the war in Iraq.
I felt compelled to be part of the effort to bring about critically needed change, because I believe that Barack Obama and Joe Biden have the best judgment, temperament, and experience to lead our nation in the right direction. They carry the banner forward for hope for a brighter future with a vision, values, and pragmatic plan to recapture the American dream.
I eagerly participated in a video of women who support Obama, in fundraising for the Rochester Women for Obama, in organizing newspaper ads for Rochester's Jewish voters who endorse Obama, and in setting up a phone bank to call voters in swing states. But a road trip for Obama—this was an unexpected challenge and treat.
Ohio, a large swing state where many people remain undecided about the presidential election, was a spot where help was needed. The Obama campaign, which maintained the grassroots energy it has utilized for the last 20 months, has encouraged and empowered local volunteers to organize trips to battleground states. That's why Rochester for Obama targeted Ohio locales in close proximity to western New York for road trips. Volunteers traveled together to do door-to-door canvassing and to make phone calls to undecided voters in Ohio.
It was an easy decision to give up 50 percent of my weekend to travel across state lines in a carpool with friends who shared a passion for CHANGE for America -- the desire to turn the page and move our country forward, in a united, positive and specific way.
We drove 4 hours and 25 minutes on a beautiful, colorful fall day to Warren, Ohio. Our early start and late return meant a very long day with lots of walking and door-knocking in between. I traveled with three other people, two old hands at political campaigning, and one, a high school student who experienced for the first time the hard work that is the foundation of our country’s democratic process. It was uplifting to accompany a young adult on this important journey.
We had the opportunity to meet some wonderful volunteers from across the nation who had come to Ohio to help the campaign, and I even saw friends from the Rochester area who had taken the same route. One surprise was meeting former Rochesterians now living in Ohio who made our experience seem like a family reunion.
We canvassed neighborhoods, rang doorbells, and knocked on doors to talk with people about the election. Most were friendly and open, but a few turned us away. A neighborhood of modest homes on small lots made walking door to door easy, and we connected with many people. Another neighborhood had homes far apart on large lots, so we had to drive from house to house. In both situations, we listened to people’s concerns. In reality, we are all much more alike than we are different, and we share the same concerns about jobs, health care, financial stability, and our children's future.
Face-to-face conversation is the most effective means of campaigning and an opportunity to share information on ideas. I thought it was important to do this in a place where so many people remained undecided as a result of confusing and negative political advertising--especially smear ads of late that try to link a loyal and patriotic American, U.S. Senator Barack Obama, with terrorists. Mudslinging has always been a part of American presidential politics, but this terrible tactic has gone over the line and fortunately is starting to backfire.
During the campaign, Obama has remained calm in the face of these spurious claims, and we have kept our cool as representatives of the national campaign. No matter how frustrating it was to hear people wonder about this inspiring and transformational candidate's patriotism, we remained respectful and focused on the facts.
We have a great two-party tradition in this country, and competitive campaigns demonstrate that our democracy is alive and well. That same spirit of competition accompanied an Ohio State football game, which drew people away from home or glued them to their television sets. But this didn't stop us from connecting with many people in a very upfront and personal way, and that made our weekend worthwhile.
It was fun talking to people we had never met and might never meet again. It was fun traveling with old friends and new, and seeing the light of optimism and hope in the eyes and actions of our young traveling companion. It was exhilarating to share with so many our hopes and dreams for a strong and swift recovery for the nation we all love, and for new leadership and the long awaited change. If I had it to do over again --- I would definitely give up a Saturday to go on the road for Barack Obama.
[Sandra Frankel is the first women and first Democrat ever elected to the position of Supervisor of the Town of Brighton (pop. 35,000), Monroe County, New York. Since1992, she has served as the elected executive and has created positive change for her community. She won the New York State Democratic Primary Election to become the party’s nominee for Lt. Governor in 1998, co-chaired former NYS Comptroller Carl McCall’s 2002 campaign for Governor, and served as co-chair of U.S. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s first U.S. Senate campaign in Monroe County. As a friend of Hillary’s, she campaigned in New Hampshire and served as a surrogate in Indiana and New York during the 2008Presidential Primary Election. She also campaigned in Scranton, Ohio for Presidential candidate John Kerry in 2004.]
By Sandy Frankel
In what is possibly the most important election of our lifetime, I didn’t want to sit on the sidelines when our country so desperately needs to move in a different direction after eight years of decline under the Bush administration. Our country and our communities are suffering.
We now have a fiscal crisis of massive proportion with an enormous national deficit and debt burden, which future generations will shoulder. We have struggled under the great physical and economic strain of fighting two wars. We have lost respect around the globe.
Change is essential if we are to restore our economic strength and stimulate job growth, create a clean environment and healthy planet for our children and grandchildren, improve educational outcomes so that our students become productive citizens, ensure access to affordable quality health care, and end the war in Iraq.
I felt compelled to be part of the effort to bring about critically needed change, because I believe that Barack Obama and Joe Biden have the best judgment, temperament, and experience to lead our nation in the right direction. They carry the banner forward for hope for a brighter future with a vision, values, and pragmatic plan to recapture the American dream.
I eagerly participated in a video of women who support Obama, in fundraising for the Rochester Women for Obama, in organizing newspaper ads for Rochester's Jewish voters who endorse Obama, and in setting up a phone bank to call voters in swing states. But a road trip for Obama—this was an unexpected challenge and treat.
Ohio, a large swing state where many people remain undecided about the presidential election, was a spot where help was needed. The Obama campaign, which maintained the grassroots energy it has utilized for the last 20 months, has encouraged and empowered local volunteers to organize trips to battleground states. That's why Rochester for Obama targeted Ohio locales in close proximity to western New York for road trips. Volunteers traveled together to do door-to-door canvassing and to make phone calls to undecided voters in Ohio.
It was an easy decision to give up 50 percent of my weekend to travel across state lines in a carpool with friends who shared a passion for CHANGE for America -- the desire to turn the page and move our country forward, in a united, positive and specific way.
We drove 4 hours and 25 minutes on a beautiful, colorful fall day to Warren, Ohio. Our early start and late return meant a very long day with lots of walking and door-knocking in between. I traveled with three other people, two old hands at political campaigning, and one, a high school student who experienced for the first time the hard work that is the foundation of our country’s democratic process. It was uplifting to accompany a young adult on this important journey.
We had the opportunity to meet some wonderful volunteers from across the nation who had come to Ohio to help the campaign, and I even saw friends from the Rochester area who had taken the same route. One surprise was meeting former Rochesterians now living in Ohio who made our experience seem like a family reunion.
We canvassed neighborhoods, rang doorbells, and knocked on doors to talk with people about the election. Most were friendly and open, but a few turned us away. A neighborhood of modest homes on small lots made walking door to door easy, and we connected with many people. Another neighborhood had homes far apart on large lots, so we had to drive from house to house. In both situations, we listened to people’s concerns. In reality, we are all much more alike than we are different, and we share the same concerns about jobs, health care, financial stability, and our children's future.
Face-to-face conversation is the most effective means of campaigning and an opportunity to share information on ideas. I thought it was important to do this in a place where so many people remained undecided as a result of confusing and negative political advertising--especially smear ads of late that try to link a loyal and patriotic American, U.S. Senator Barack Obama, with terrorists. Mudslinging has always been a part of American presidential politics, but this terrible tactic has gone over the line and fortunately is starting to backfire.
During the campaign, Obama has remained calm in the face of these spurious claims, and we have kept our cool as representatives of the national campaign. No matter how frustrating it was to hear people wonder about this inspiring and transformational candidate's patriotism, we remained respectful and focused on the facts.
We have a great two-party tradition in this country, and competitive campaigns demonstrate that our democracy is alive and well. That same spirit of competition accompanied an Ohio State football game, which drew people away from home or glued them to their television sets. But this didn't stop us from connecting with many people in a very upfront and personal way, and that made our weekend worthwhile.
It was fun talking to people we had never met and might never meet again. It was fun traveling with old friends and new, and seeing the light of optimism and hope in the eyes and actions of our young traveling companion. It was exhilarating to share with so many our hopes and dreams for a strong and swift recovery for the nation we all love, and for new leadership and the long awaited change. If I had it to do over again --- I would definitely give up a Saturday to go on the road for Barack Obama.
[Sandra Frankel is the first women and first Democrat ever elected to the position of Supervisor of the Town of Brighton (pop. 35,000), Monroe County, New York. Since1992, she has served as the elected executive and has created positive change for her community. She won the New York State Democratic Primary Election to become the party’s nominee for Lt. Governor in 1998, co-chaired former NYS Comptroller Carl McCall’s 2002 campaign for Governor, and served as co-chair of U.S. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s first U.S. Senate campaign in Monroe County. As a friend of Hillary’s, she campaigned in New Hampshire and served as a surrogate in Indiana and New York during the 2008Presidential Primary Election. She also campaigned in Scranton, Ohio for Presidential candidate John Kerry in 2004.]
Thursday, October 23, 2008
NEW YORK TIMES ENDORSES OBAMA
THE NEW YORK TIMES
October 24, 2008
Editorial
Barack Obama for President
Hyperbole is the currency of presidential campaigns, but this year the nation’s future truly hangs in the balance.
The United States is battered and drifting after eight years of President Bush’s failed leadership. He is saddling his successor with two wars, a scarred global image and a government systematically stripped of its ability to protect and help its citizens — whether they are fleeing a hurricane’s floodwaters, searching for affordable health care or struggling to hold on to their homes, jobs, savings and pensions in the midst of a financial crisis that was foretold and preventable.
As tough as the times are, the selection of a new president is easy. After nearly two years of a grueling and ugly campaign, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois has proved that he is the right choice to be the 44th president of the United States.
•
Mr. Obama has met challenge after challenge, growing as a leader and putting real flesh on his early promises of hope and change. He has shown a cool head and sound judgment. We believe he has the will and the ability to forge the broad political consensus that is essential to finding solutions to this nation’s problems.
In the same time, Senator John McCain of Arizona has retreated farther and farther to the fringe of American politics, running a campaign on partisan division, class warfare and even hints of racism. His policies and worldview are mired in the past. His choice of a running mate so evidently unfit for the office was a final act of opportunism and bad judgment that eclipsed the accomplishments of 26 years in Congress.
Given the particularly ugly nature of Mr. McCain’s campaign, the urge to choose on the basis of raw emotion is strong. But there is a greater value in looking closely at the facts of life in America today and at the prescriptions the candidates offer. The differences are profound.
Mr. McCain offers more of the Republican every-man-for-himself ideology, now lying in shards on Wall Street and in Americans’ bank accounts. Mr. Obama has another vision of government’s role and responsibilities.
In his convention speech in Denver, Mr. Obama said, “Government cannot solve all our problems, but what it should do is that which we cannot do for ourselves: protect us from harm and provide every child a decent education; keep our water clean and our toys safe; invest in new schools and new roads and new science and technology.”
Since the financial crisis, he has correctly identified the abject failure of government regulation that has brought the markets to the brink of collapse.
The Economy
The American financial system is the victim of decades of Republican deregulatory and anti-tax policies. Those ideas have been proved wrong at an unfathomable price, but Mr. McCain — a self-proclaimed “foot soldier in the Reagan revolution” — is still a believer.
Mr. Obama sees that far-reaching reforms will be needed to protect Americans and American business.
Mr. McCain talks about reform a lot, but his vision is pinched. His answer to any economic question is to eliminate pork-barrel spending — about $18 billion in a $3 trillion budget — cut taxes and wait for unfettered markets to solve the problem.
Mr. Obama is clear that the nation’s tax structure must be changed to make it fairer. That means the well-off Americans who have benefited disproportionately from Mr. Bush’s tax cuts will have to pay some more. Working Americans, who have seen their standard of living fall and their children’s options narrow, will benefit. Mr. Obama wants to raise the minimum wage and tie it to inflation, restore a climate in which workers are able to organize unions if they wish and expand educational opportunities.
Mr. McCain, who once opposed President Bush’s tax cuts for the wealthy as fiscally irresponsible, now wants to make them permanent. And while he talks about keeping taxes low for everyone, his proposed cuts would overwhelmingly benefit the top 1 percent of Americans while digging the country into a deeper fiscal hole.
National Security
The American military — its people and equipment — is dangerously overstretched. Mr. Bush has neglected the necessary war in Afghanistan, which now threatens to spiral into defeat. The unnecessary and staggeringly costly war in Iraq must be ended as quickly and responsibly as possible.
While Iraq’s leaders insist on a swift drawdown of American troops and a deadline for the end of the occupation, Mr. McCain is still taking about some ill-defined “victory.” As a result, he has offered no real plan for extracting American troops and limiting any further damage to Iraq and its neighbors.
Mr. Obama was an early and thoughtful opponent of the war in Iraq, and he has presented a military and diplomatic plan for withdrawing American forces. Mr. Obama also has correctly warned that until the Pentagon starts pulling troops out of Iraq, there will not be enough troops to defeat the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan.
Mr. McCain, like Mr. Bush, has only belatedly focused on Afghanistan’s dangerous unraveling and the threat that neighboring Pakistan may quickly follow.
Mr. Obama would have a learning curve on foreign affairs, but he has already showed sounder judgment than his opponent on these critical issues. His choice of Senator Joseph Biden — who has deep foreign-policy expertise — as his running mate is another sign of that sound judgment. Mr. McCain’s long interest in foreign policy and the many dangers this country now faces make his choice of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska more irresponsible.
Both presidential candidates talk about strengthening alliances in Europe and Asia, including NATO, and strongly support Israel. Both candidates talk about repairing America’s image in the world. But it seems clear to us that Mr. Obama is far more likely to do that — and not just because the first black president would present a new American face to the world.
Mr. Obama wants to reform the United Nations, while Mr. McCain wants to create a new entity, the League of Democracies — a move that would incite even fiercer anti-American furies around the world.
Unfortunately, Mr. McCain, like Mr. Bush, sees the world as divided into friends (like Georgia) and adversaries (like Russia). He proposed kicking Russia out of the Group of 8 industrialized nations even before the invasion of Georgia. We have no sympathy for Moscow’s bullying, but we also have no desire to replay the cold war. The United States must find a way to constrain the Russians’ worst impulses, while preserving the ability to work with them on arms control and other vital initiatives.
Both candidates talk tough on terrorism, and neither has ruled out military action to end Iran’s nuclear weapons program. But Mr. Obama has called for a serious effort to try to wean Tehran from its nuclear ambitions with more credible diplomatic overtures and tougher sanctions. Mr. McCain’s willingness to joke about bombing Iran was frightening.
The Constitution and the Rule of Law
Under Mr. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, the Constitution, the Bill of Rights, the justice system and the separation of powers have come under relentless attack. Mr. Bush chose to exploit the tragedy of Sept. 11, 2001, the moment in which he looked like the president of a unified nation, to try to place himself above the law.
Mr. Bush has arrogated the power to imprison men without charges and browbeat Congress into granting an unfettered authority to spy on Americans. He has created untold numbers of “black” programs, including secret prisons and outsourced torture. The president has issued hundreds, if not thousands, of secret orders. We fear it will take years of forensic research to discover how many basic rights have been violated.
Both candidates have renounced torture and are committed to closing the prison camp in Guantánamo Bay, Cuba.
But Mr. Obama has gone beyond that, promising to identify and correct Mr. Bush’s attacks on the democratic system. Mr. McCain has been silent on the subject.
Mr. McCain improved protections for detainees. But then he helped the White House push through the appalling Military Commissions Act of 2006, which denied detainees the right to a hearing in a real court and put Washington in conflict with the Geneva Conventions, greatly increasing the risk to American troops.
The next president will have the chance to appoint one or more justices to a Supreme Court that is on the brink of being dominated by a radical right wing. Mr. Obama may appoint less liberal judges than some of his followers might like, but Mr. McCain is certain to pick rigid ideologues. He has said he would never appoint a judge who believes in women’s reproductive rights.
The Candidates
It will be an enormous challenge just to get the nation back to where it was before Mr. Bush, to begin to mend its image in the world and to restore its self-confidence and its self-respect. Doing all of that, and leading America forward, will require strength of will, character and intellect, sober judgment and a cool, steady hand.
Mr. Obama has those qualities in abundance. Watching him being tested in the campaign has long since erased the reservations that led us to endorse Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Democratic primaries. He has drawn in legions of new voters with powerful messages of hope and possibility and calls for shared sacrifice and social responsibility.
Mr. McCain, whom we chose as the best Republican nominee in the primaries, has spent the last coins of his reputation for principle and sound judgment to placate the limitless demands and narrow vision of the far-right wing. His righteous fury at being driven out of the 2000 primaries on a racist tide aimed at his adopted daughter has been replaced by a zealous embrace of those same win-at-all-costs tactics and tacticians.
He surrendered his standing as an independent thinker in his rush to embrace Mr. Bush’s misbegotten tax policies and to abandon his leadership position on climate change and immigration reform.
Mr. McCain could have seized the high ground on energy and the environment. Earlier in his career, he offered the first plausible bill to control America’s emissions of greenhouse gases. Now his positions are a caricature of that record: think Ms. Palin leading chants of “drill, baby, drill.”
Mr. Obama has endorsed some offshore drilling, but as part of a comprehensive strategy including big investments in new, clean technologies.
•
Mr. Obama has withstood some of the toughest campaign attacks ever mounted against a candidate. He’s been called un-American and accused of hiding a secret Islamic faith. The Republicans have linked him to domestic terrorists and questioned his wife’s love of her country. Ms. Palin has also questioned millions of Americans’ patriotism, calling Republican-leaning states “pro-America.”
This politics of fear, division and character assassination helped Mr. Bush drive Mr. McCain from the 2000 Republican primaries and defeat Senator John Kerry in 2004. It has been the dominant theme of his failed presidency.
The nation’s problems are simply too grave to be reduced to slashing “robo-calls” and negative ads. This country needs sensible leadership, compassionate leadership, honest leadership and strong leadership. Barack Obama has shown that he has all of those qualities.
October 24, 2008
Editorial
Barack Obama for President
Hyperbole is the currency of presidential campaigns, but this year the nation’s future truly hangs in the balance.
The United States is battered and drifting after eight years of President Bush’s failed leadership. He is saddling his successor with two wars, a scarred global image and a government systematically stripped of its ability to protect and help its citizens — whether they are fleeing a hurricane’s floodwaters, searching for affordable health care or struggling to hold on to their homes, jobs, savings and pensions in the midst of a financial crisis that was foretold and preventable.
As tough as the times are, the selection of a new president is easy. After nearly two years of a grueling and ugly campaign, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois has proved that he is the right choice to be the 44th president of the United States.
•
Mr. Obama has met challenge after challenge, growing as a leader and putting real flesh on his early promises of hope and change. He has shown a cool head and sound judgment. We believe he has the will and the ability to forge the broad political consensus that is essential to finding solutions to this nation’s problems.
In the same time, Senator John McCain of Arizona has retreated farther and farther to the fringe of American politics, running a campaign on partisan division, class warfare and even hints of racism. His policies and worldview are mired in the past. His choice of a running mate so evidently unfit for the office was a final act of opportunism and bad judgment that eclipsed the accomplishments of 26 years in Congress.
Given the particularly ugly nature of Mr. McCain’s campaign, the urge to choose on the basis of raw emotion is strong. But there is a greater value in looking closely at the facts of life in America today and at the prescriptions the candidates offer. The differences are profound.
Mr. McCain offers more of the Republican every-man-for-himself ideology, now lying in shards on Wall Street and in Americans’ bank accounts. Mr. Obama has another vision of government’s role and responsibilities.
In his convention speech in Denver, Mr. Obama said, “Government cannot solve all our problems, but what it should do is that which we cannot do for ourselves: protect us from harm and provide every child a decent education; keep our water clean and our toys safe; invest in new schools and new roads and new science and technology.”
Since the financial crisis, he has correctly identified the abject failure of government regulation that has brought the markets to the brink of collapse.
The Economy
The American financial system is the victim of decades of Republican deregulatory and anti-tax policies. Those ideas have been proved wrong at an unfathomable price, but Mr. McCain — a self-proclaimed “foot soldier in the Reagan revolution” — is still a believer.
Mr. Obama sees that far-reaching reforms will be needed to protect Americans and American business.
Mr. McCain talks about reform a lot, but his vision is pinched. His answer to any economic question is to eliminate pork-barrel spending — about $18 billion in a $3 trillion budget — cut taxes and wait for unfettered markets to solve the problem.
Mr. Obama is clear that the nation’s tax structure must be changed to make it fairer. That means the well-off Americans who have benefited disproportionately from Mr. Bush’s tax cuts will have to pay some more. Working Americans, who have seen their standard of living fall and their children’s options narrow, will benefit. Mr. Obama wants to raise the minimum wage and tie it to inflation, restore a climate in which workers are able to organize unions if they wish and expand educational opportunities.
Mr. McCain, who once opposed President Bush’s tax cuts for the wealthy as fiscally irresponsible, now wants to make them permanent. And while he talks about keeping taxes low for everyone, his proposed cuts would overwhelmingly benefit the top 1 percent of Americans while digging the country into a deeper fiscal hole.
National Security
The American military — its people and equipment — is dangerously overstretched. Mr. Bush has neglected the necessary war in Afghanistan, which now threatens to spiral into defeat. The unnecessary and staggeringly costly war in Iraq must be ended as quickly and responsibly as possible.
While Iraq’s leaders insist on a swift drawdown of American troops and a deadline for the end of the occupation, Mr. McCain is still taking about some ill-defined “victory.” As a result, he has offered no real plan for extracting American troops and limiting any further damage to Iraq and its neighbors.
Mr. Obama was an early and thoughtful opponent of the war in Iraq, and he has presented a military and diplomatic plan for withdrawing American forces. Mr. Obama also has correctly warned that until the Pentagon starts pulling troops out of Iraq, there will not be enough troops to defeat the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan.
Mr. McCain, like Mr. Bush, has only belatedly focused on Afghanistan’s dangerous unraveling and the threat that neighboring Pakistan may quickly follow.
Mr. Obama would have a learning curve on foreign affairs, but he has already showed sounder judgment than his opponent on these critical issues. His choice of Senator Joseph Biden — who has deep foreign-policy expertise — as his running mate is another sign of that sound judgment. Mr. McCain’s long interest in foreign policy and the many dangers this country now faces make his choice of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska more irresponsible.
Both presidential candidates talk about strengthening alliances in Europe and Asia, including NATO, and strongly support Israel. Both candidates talk about repairing America’s image in the world. But it seems clear to us that Mr. Obama is far more likely to do that — and not just because the first black president would present a new American face to the world.
Mr. Obama wants to reform the United Nations, while Mr. McCain wants to create a new entity, the League of Democracies — a move that would incite even fiercer anti-American furies around the world.
Unfortunately, Mr. McCain, like Mr. Bush, sees the world as divided into friends (like Georgia) and adversaries (like Russia). He proposed kicking Russia out of the Group of 8 industrialized nations even before the invasion of Georgia. We have no sympathy for Moscow’s bullying, but we also have no desire to replay the cold war. The United States must find a way to constrain the Russians’ worst impulses, while preserving the ability to work with them on arms control and other vital initiatives.
Both candidates talk tough on terrorism, and neither has ruled out military action to end Iran’s nuclear weapons program. But Mr. Obama has called for a serious effort to try to wean Tehran from its nuclear ambitions with more credible diplomatic overtures and tougher sanctions. Mr. McCain’s willingness to joke about bombing Iran was frightening.
The Constitution and the Rule of Law
Under Mr. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, the Constitution, the Bill of Rights, the justice system and the separation of powers have come under relentless attack. Mr. Bush chose to exploit the tragedy of Sept. 11, 2001, the moment in which he looked like the president of a unified nation, to try to place himself above the law.
Mr. Bush has arrogated the power to imprison men without charges and browbeat Congress into granting an unfettered authority to spy on Americans. He has created untold numbers of “black” programs, including secret prisons and outsourced torture. The president has issued hundreds, if not thousands, of secret orders. We fear it will take years of forensic research to discover how many basic rights have been violated.
Both candidates have renounced torture and are committed to closing the prison camp in Guantánamo Bay, Cuba.
But Mr. Obama has gone beyond that, promising to identify and correct Mr. Bush’s attacks on the democratic system. Mr. McCain has been silent on the subject.
Mr. McCain improved protections for detainees. But then he helped the White House push through the appalling Military Commissions Act of 2006, which denied detainees the right to a hearing in a real court and put Washington in conflict with the Geneva Conventions, greatly increasing the risk to American troops.
The next president will have the chance to appoint one or more justices to a Supreme Court that is on the brink of being dominated by a radical right wing. Mr. Obama may appoint less liberal judges than some of his followers might like, but Mr. McCain is certain to pick rigid ideologues. He has said he would never appoint a judge who believes in women’s reproductive rights.
The Candidates
It will be an enormous challenge just to get the nation back to where it was before Mr. Bush, to begin to mend its image in the world and to restore its self-confidence and its self-respect. Doing all of that, and leading America forward, will require strength of will, character and intellect, sober judgment and a cool, steady hand.
Mr. Obama has those qualities in abundance. Watching him being tested in the campaign has long since erased the reservations that led us to endorse Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Democratic primaries. He has drawn in legions of new voters with powerful messages of hope and possibility and calls for shared sacrifice and social responsibility.
Mr. McCain, whom we chose as the best Republican nominee in the primaries, has spent the last coins of his reputation for principle and sound judgment to placate the limitless demands and narrow vision of the far-right wing. His righteous fury at being driven out of the 2000 primaries on a racist tide aimed at his adopted daughter has been replaced by a zealous embrace of those same win-at-all-costs tactics and tacticians.
He surrendered his standing as an independent thinker in his rush to embrace Mr. Bush’s misbegotten tax policies and to abandon his leadership position on climate change and immigration reform.
Mr. McCain could have seized the high ground on energy and the environment. Earlier in his career, he offered the first plausible bill to control America’s emissions of greenhouse gases. Now his positions are a caricature of that record: think Ms. Palin leading chants of “drill, baby, drill.”
Mr. Obama has endorsed some offshore drilling, but as part of a comprehensive strategy including big investments in new, clean technologies.
•
Mr. Obama has withstood some of the toughest campaign attacks ever mounted against a candidate. He’s been called un-American and accused of hiding a secret Islamic faith. The Republicans have linked him to domestic terrorists and questioned his wife’s love of her country. Ms. Palin has also questioned millions of Americans’ patriotism, calling Republican-leaning states “pro-America.”
This politics of fear, division and character assassination helped Mr. Bush drive Mr. McCain from the 2000 Republican primaries and defeat Senator John Kerry in 2004. It has been the dominant theme of his failed presidency.
The nation’s problems are simply too grave to be reduced to slashing “robo-calls” and negative ads. This country needs sensible leadership, compassionate leadership, honest leadership and strong leadership. Barack Obama has shown that he has all of those qualities.
OBAMA ON GOOD MORNING AMERICA, FRIDAY MORNING, CHANNEL 13, STARTING AT 7:00AM
Tivo Alert! Obama spoke with ABC News' Robin Roberts for an interview airing on Friday on "Good Morning America" and told her that his ailing grandmother has been "inundated" with get-well wishes this week.
"She has been inundated with phone calls and e-mails and flowers from total strangers who have read about her in my first book," Obama told Roberts before he flew to Honolulu to be with his grandmother, Madelyn Dunham. "And so maybe she is getting a sense of, of long-deserved recognition at --towards the end of her life."
"She has been inundated with phone calls and e-mails and flowers from total strangers who have read about her in my first book," Obama told Roberts before he flew to Honolulu to be with his grandmother, Madelyn Dunham. "And so maybe she is getting a sense of, of long-deserved recognition at --towards the end of her life."
THE HISTORY ARGUMENT
The history argument by Ben Smith (The Politico)
Can Obama use a perception that his win is both inevitable and historic to tip voters his way? Or will that backfire?
Anyway, here's the story from a reader:
Upon arriving at the Hamilton County Board of Elections in Cincinnati to vote early today I happened upon some friends of my mother's — three small, elderly Jewish women. They were quite upset as they were being refused admitance to the polling location due to their Obama T-Shirts, hats and buttons. Apparently you cannot wear Obama/McCain gear into polling locations here in Ohio.... They were practically on the verge of tears.
After a minute or two of this a huge man (6'5", 300 lbs easy) wearing a Dale Earnhardt jacket and Bengal's baseball cap left the voting line, came up to us and introduced himself as Mike. He told us he had overheard our conversation and asked if the ladies would like to borrow his jacket to put over their t-shirts so they could go in and vote. The ladies quickly agreed. As long as I live I will never forget the image of these 80-plus-year-old Jewish ladies walking into the polling location wearing a huge Dale Earnhardt racing jacket that came over their hands and down to their knees!
Mike patiently waited for each woman to cast their vote, accepted their many thanks and then got back in line (I saved him a place while he was helping out the ladies). When Mike got back in line I asked him if he was an Obama supporter. He said that he was not, but that he couldn't stand to see those ladies so upset. I thanked him for being a gentleman in a time of bitter partisanship and wished him well.
After I voted I walked out to the street to find my mother's friends surrouding our new friend Mike — they were laughing and having a great time. I joined them and soon learned that Mike had changed his mind in the polling booth and ended up voting for Obama. When I asked him why he changed his mind at the last minute, he explained that while he was waiting for his jacket he got into a conversation with one of the ladies who had explained how the Jewish community, and she, had worked side by side with the black community during the civil rights movements of the '60s, and that this vote was the culmination of those personal and community efforts so many years ago. That this election for her was more than just a vote ... but a chance at history.
Mike looked at me and said, "Obama's going to win, and I didn't want to tell my grandchildren some day that I had an opportunity to vote for the first black president, but I missed my chance at history and voted for the other guy."
Can Obama use a perception that his win is both inevitable and historic to tip voters his way? Or will that backfire?
Anyway, here's the story from a reader:
Upon arriving at the Hamilton County Board of Elections in Cincinnati to vote early today I happened upon some friends of my mother's — three small, elderly Jewish women. They were quite upset as they were being refused admitance to the polling location due to their Obama T-Shirts, hats and buttons. Apparently you cannot wear Obama/McCain gear into polling locations here in Ohio.... They were practically on the verge of tears.
After a minute or two of this a huge man (6'5", 300 lbs easy) wearing a Dale Earnhardt jacket and Bengal's baseball cap left the voting line, came up to us and introduced himself as Mike. He told us he had overheard our conversation and asked if the ladies would like to borrow his jacket to put over their t-shirts so they could go in and vote. The ladies quickly agreed. As long as I live I will never forget the image of these 80-plus-year-old Jewish ladies walking into the polling location wearing a huge Dale Earnhardt racing jacket that came over their hands and down to their knees!
Mike patiently waited for each woman to cast their vote, accepted their many thanks and then got back in line (I saved him a place while he was helping out the ladies). When Mike got back in line I asked him if he was an Obama supporter. He said that he was not, but that he couldn't stand to see those ladies so upset. I thanked him for being a gentleman in a time of bitter partisanship and wished him well.
After I voted I walked out to the street to find my mother's friends surrouding our new friend Mike — they were laughing and having a great time. I joined them and soon learned that Mike had changed his mind in the polling booth and ended up voting for Obama. When I asked him why he changed his mind at the last minute, he explained that while he was waiting for his jacket he got into a conversation with one of the ladies who had explained how the Jewish community, and she, had worked side by side with the black community during the civil rights movements of the '60s, and that this vote was the culmination of those personal and community efforts so many years ago. That this election for her was more than just a vote ... but a chance at history.
Mike looked at me and said, "Obama's going to win, and I didn't want to tell my grandchildren some day that I had an opportunity to vote for the first black president, but I missed my chance at history and voted for the other guy."
WONDERFUL OHIO CAMPAIGN STORY
Will GOP Heartland Beat for Obama?
By David Broder
WOOSTER, Ohio -- This is the Republican heartland, a small city filled with churches and circled by cornfields, an hour south of Cleveland.
In 2000 and 2004, George Bush carried Wooster and surrounding Wayne County with more than 61 percent of the votes. The area has been represented in Congress for decades by Rep. Ralph Regula, who is retiring.
But in 2006, Democrats showed signs of reviving in Wayne County under a new chairman, B. Jean Mohr. Rep. Sherrod Brown won almost 48 percent of the county vote on his way to defeating Republican Sen. Mike DeWine. And in the race for governor, Rep. Ted Strickland actually outpolled Republican Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell by 2,316 votes here, part of a statewide landslide.
When I asked Republican state Sen. Ron Amstutz, who has represented the county since 1980, what had happened, he pointed to scandals in the administration of outgoing Gov. Bob Taft and said Blackwell "was just too conservative" for his constituents. Strickland, a Protestant minister before he entered politics, "had a lot of appeal to the church people," Amstutz said.
That makes Wayne County a battleground in the latest version of the perpetual presidential election drama: Who gets Ohio? In 2004, John Kerry invested more in turning out votes in Ohio than in any other state, only to see the Bush campaign beat him in the precincts -- clinching the election.
Even after Barack Obama was soundly beaten by Hillary Clinton in the Ohio Democratic primary, losing Wayne County in the process, Democrats insisted that Ohio would be in play in November -- and Republicans said they were rising to the challenge. So I was eager to see what was happening on the ground.
I drove down to the McCain-Republican office, across from the local newspaper on a downtown street, and walked in about 2:30 after my lunch interview with Amstutz.
I was greeted by two ladies of my own generation, Judy Dichler and Roma Nicholac, who told me the office had opened on Sept. 22 and "this is the first Friday we've stayed open." While we visited, a half-dozen people stopped by to pick up McCain-Palin yard signs. None was asked to do anything else for the campaign.
Just as I was preparing to leave, a third woman arrived and silently began hand-gluing mailing labels to a pile of brochures.
Dichler and Nicholac, both veterans of past Republican campaigns, said things had gone slowly until McCain picked Sarah Palin as his running mate and she showed up to campaign in neighboring Stark County. "People are thrilled by her life story," Dichler said.
In a phone conversation, I had learned that Dorothy Ginther, the veteran Republican county chairwoman, was a late convert to the McCain campaign, joining him only after Rudy Giuliani, her first choice, dropped out.
But her Democratic counterpart, Jean Mohr, had an even more tortuous journey. She started out with John Edwards, then moved to Hillary Clinton. She embraced Obama only after the Democratic convention.
None of that seems to matter now. When I visited the Obama-Democratic headquarters, two blocks from the McCain-GOP office, the contrast was remarkable. Sixteen people were at their desks, talking on phones or working on computers. Two of them were imports: Alain Hankin, a corporate trainer from Northampton, Mass., and father of two, who decided to give the campaign five weeks of volunteer time; and David Litt, a New Yorker who graduated from Yale in May and, finding the job market bleak, also volunteered for Obama. Both were sent to Wooster to bolster what was already a vigorous local effort.
Two local women at the tables -- Cullen Naumore and Catherine Wiandt -- heard Sen. Joe Biden when he spoke in mid-September at the College of Wooster. Naumore had never thought of volunteering in a campaign and Wiandt had abandoned politics, disillusioned, after working for Democrats in her younger years.
Now they are part of a volunteer force that Litt estimates at "100 per week and growing."
Two others are Jessica Schumacher of Lexington, Ky., and Sarah Green-Golan of Boston, respectively a sophomore and a senior at the College of Wooster. I met them on campus and heard how they and their friends had persuaded 700 of their fellow students to register in Wayne County, where the Republican presidential margin has ranged from 11,000 to 12,000 votes in the last two elections.
"It's going to be different this time," they assured me.
davidbroder@washpost.com
By David Broder
WOOSTER, Ohio -- This is the Republican heartland, a small city filled with churches and circled by cornfields, an hour south of Cleveland.
In 2000 and 2004, George Bush carried Wooster and surrounding Wayne County with more than 61 percent of the votes. The area has been represented in Congress for decades by Rep. Ralph Regula, who is retiring.
But in 2006, Democrats showed signs of reviving in Wayne County under a new chairman, B. Jean Mohr. Rep. Sherrod Brown won almost 48 percent of the county vote on his way to defeating Republican Sen. Mike DeWine. And in the race for governor, Rep. Ted Strickland actually outpolled Republican Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell by 2,316 votes here, part of a statewide landslide.
When I asked Republican state Sen. Ron Amstutz, who has represented the county since 1980, what had happened, he pointed to scandals in the administration of outgoing Gov. Bob Taft and said Blackwell "was just too conservative" for his constituents. Strickland, a Protestant minister before he entered politics, "had a lot of appeal to the church people," Amstutz said.
That makes Wayne County a battleground in the latest version of the perpetual presidential election drama: Who gets Ohio? In 2004, John Kerry invested more in turning out votes in Ohio than in any other state, only to see the Bush campaign beat him in the precincts -- clinching the election.
Even after Barack Obama was soundly beaten by Hillary Clinton in the Ohio Democratic primary, losing Wayne County in the process, Democrats insisted that Ohio would be in play in November -- and Republicans said they were rising to the challenge. So I was eager to see what was happening on the ground.
I drove down to the McCain-Republican office, across from the local newspaper on a downtown street, and walked in about 2:30 after my lunch interview with Amstutz.
I was greeted by two ladies of my own generation, Judy Dichler and Roma Nicholac, who told me the office had opened on Sept. 22 and "this is the first Friday we've stayed open." While we visited, a half-dozen people stopped by to pick up McCain-Palin yard signs. None was asked to do anything else for the campaign.
Just as I was preparing to leave, a third woman arrived and silently began hand-gluing mailing labels to a pile of brochures.
Dichler and Nicholac, both veterans of past Republican campaigns, said things had gone slowly until McCain picked Sarah Palin as his running mate and she showed up to campaign in neighboring Stark County. "People are thrilled by her life story," Dichler said.
In a phone conversation, I had learned that Dorothy Ginther, the veteran Republican county chairwoman, was a late convert to the McCain campaign, joining him only after Rudy Giuliani, her first choice, dropped out.
But her Democratic counterpart, Jean Mohr, had an even more tortuous journey. She started out with John Edwards, then moved to Hillary Clinton. She embraced Obama only after the Democratic convention.
None of that seems to matter now. When I visited the Obama-Democratic headquarters, two blocks from the McCain-GOP office, the contrast was remarkable. Sixteen people were at their desks, talking on phones or working on computers. Two of them were imports: Alain Hankin, a corporate trainer from Northampton, Mass., and father of two, who decided to give the campaign five weeks of volunteer time; and David Litt, a New Yorker who graduated from Yale in May and, finding the job market bleak, also volunteered for Obama. Both were sent to Wooster to bolster what was already a vigorous local effort.
Two local women at the tables -- Cullen Naumore and Catherine Wiandt -- heard Sen. Joe Biden when he spoke in mid-September at the College of Wooster. Naumore had never thought of volunteering in a campaign and Wiandt had abandoned politics, disillusioned, after working for Democrats in her younger years.
Now they are part of a volunteer force that Litt estimates at "100 per week and growing."
Two others are Jessica Schumacher of Lexington, Ky., and Sarah Green-Golan of Boston, respectively a sophomore and a senior at the College of Wooster. I met them on campus and heard how they and their friends had persuaded 700 of their fellow students to register in Wayne County, where the Republican presidential margin has ranged from 11,000 to 12,000 votes in the last two elections.
"It's going to be different this time," they assured me.
davidbroder@washpost.com
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
HEARTFELT STORY ON EARLY VOTING IN INDIANA
Early voting in Evansville (Ben Smith The Politico)
Here's an early voting story from a medical student in Evansville, Ind.:
I squeaked in just before the 7pm deadline to find two very frustrated poll workers and a line of a couple dozen people, due to problems with the computerized voting system not accepting people's driver's licenses. It was taking about 7-10 minutes per person just to get the computer to accept them as valid and to print out their ballot, causing very long delays.
For me the most moving moment came when the family in front of me, comprising probably 4 generations of voters (including an 18 year old girl voting for her first time and a 90-something hunched-over grandmother), got their turn to vote. When the old woman left the voting booth she made it about halfway to the door before collapsing in a nearby chair, where she began weeping uncontrollably. When we rushed over to help we realized that she wasn't in trouble at all but she had not truly believed, until she left the booth, that she would ever live long enough to cast a vote for an African-American for president. Anyone who doesn't think that African-American turnout will absolutely SHATTER every existing record is in for a very rude surprise.
There were about 20 people in front of me but remarkably not a single person left the room without voting over the 2 hours it took to get through the line.
Here's an early voting story from a medical student in Evansville, Ind.:
I squeaked in just before the 7pm deadline to find two very frustrated poll workers and a line of a couple dozen people, due to problems with the computerized voting system not accepting people's driver's licenses. It was taking about 7-10 minutes per person just to get the computer to accept them as valid and to print out their ballot, causing very long delays.
For me the most moving moment came when the family in front of me, comprising probably 4 generations of voters (including an 18 year old girl voting for her first time and a 90-something hunched-over grandmother), got their turn to vote. When the old woman left the voting booth she made it about halfway to the door before collapsing in a nearby chair, where she began weeping uncontrollably. When we rushed over to help we realized that she wasn't in trouble at all but she had not truly believed, until she left the booth, that she would ever live long enough to cast a vote for an African-American for president. Anyone who doesn't think that African-American turnout will absolutely SHATTER every existing record is in for a very rude surprise.
There were about 20 people in front of me but remarkably not a single person left the room without voting over the 2 hours it took to get through the line.
Pros and Cons of Contact
The contact gap (Ben Smith The Politico)
I've gotten lots of email over the last few days in response to a request for anecdotes of what sort of contact readers are getting from the campaign on the ground, and virtually all of the stories run the same way: Obama has been contacting these voters many, many more times than McCain.
This may be a self-selected sample, of course -- blog readers lean Obama. With that caveat, here are a couple of (lightly edited) samples:
An Obama supporter in Indiana:
I am a lifelong Republican. I have served on the local county Republican finance committee in the past. I am not supporting the Republican presidential candidate for the first time in my life. I have been contacted during the primary by Rudy Giuliani. No other Republicans have attempted to contact me at all, with the exception of local Indiana candidates. I have had no contact from the Indiana Republican Party and no mail from the McCain campaign during the entire campaign.
The real story though, is about my 24 year old son.
He attended college at the University of Hawaii. He graduated in May. He enjoyed his last summer in Hawaii and traveled to China before returning to Indiana in early September. One week before returning to Indiana, he changed his cell phone number to an Indiana area code. After arriving at the Indianapolis airport, we drove home. Two hours after his plane arrived in Indiana, he received a phone call on his cell phone. It was a local Obama campaign office. They welcomed him to Indiana and asked if he needed assistance in getting registered to vote. He did register and both of us have already voted for Obama.
How is it that an active Republican gets no contact from any Republican office or candidate (except the gubernatorial candidate) and a two hour resident of Indiana gets a phone call from the Obama office?
A ...non-Obama supporter in NoVa:
The Obama campaign has been obsessed with every detail of my life. The morning Obama announced that Senator Biden was his running mate, I had an Obama campainger at my door no earlier than 9:30am. A few weeks later, I was in my front yard cutting the grass and a campaigner had the audacity to interrupt me while I'm running a lawn mower to ask who I was voting for.
The best encounter thus far, though, was with the "lost" woman on my street. Walking home from work one day, I ran into a young woman who looked frightfully lost in my Arlington neighborhood. I made myself available to her, sensing that she caused no harm, and she immediately began drilling me about who I was voting for and why I haven't thought seriously enough about this election. Upon making it clear to her that I didn't have time to argue with her, she arranged herself more in my personal space and began to discuss abortion, volunteering to me that she had lost a friend to illegal abortion. This woman was obviously born after Roe v. Wade, which led me to conclude that her friend's illegal abortion must have occurred in another country or that maybe this woman was telling lies to solicit my emotion. Being a nimble, petite woman, I navigated myself around her and left her calling out after me in the streets. I walked around the block to make sure that she wouldn't discover which house I live in.
Speaking of my house, I have received enough Obama propaganda that I could literally wall-paper my entire living room with it....
I have been receiving numerous unknown cell phone calls as of late. I once answered during a thunderstorm, and an enthusiastic young man asked if I was planning on voting for Obama. I told him that I didn't want to talk about it and would prefer it if he didn't call back. He understood, apologized, and, to make up for it all, called me back five minutes later to ask the same question....
I've gotten lots of email over the last few days in response to a request for anecdotes of what sort of contact readers are getting from the campaign on the ground, and virtually all of the stories run the same way: Obama has been contacting these voters many, many more times than McCain.
This may be a self-selected sample, of course -- blog readers lean Obama. With that caveat, here are a couple of (lightly edited) samples:
An Obama supporter in Indiana:
I am a lifelong Republican. I have served on the local county Republican finance committee in the past. I am not supporting the Republican presidential candidate for the first time in my life. I have been contacted during the primary by Rudy Giuliani. No other Republicans have attempted to contact me at all, with the exception of local Indiana candidates. I have had no contact from the Indiana Republican Party and no mail from the McCain campaign during the entire campaign.
The real story though, is about my 24 year old son.
He attended college at the University of Hawaii. He graduated in May. He enjoyed his last summer in Hawaii and traveled to China before returning to Indiana in early September. One week before returning to Indiana, he changed his cell phone number to an Indiana area code. After arriving at the Indianapolis airport, we drove home. Two hours after his plane arrived in Indiana, he received a phone call on his cell phone. It was a local Obama campaign office. They welcomed him to Indiana and asked if he needed assistance in getting registered to vote. He did register and both of us have already voted for Obama.
How is it that an active Republican gets no contact from any Republican office or candidate (except the gubernatorial candidate) and a two hour resident of Indiana gets a phone call from the Obama office?
A ...non-Obama supporter in NoVa:
The Obama campaign has been obsessed with every detail of my life. The morning Obama announced that Senator Biden was his running mate, I had an Obama campainger at my door no earlier than 9:30am. A few weeks later, I was in my front yard cutting the grass and a campaigner had the audacity to interrupt me while I'm running a lawn mower to ask who I was voting for.
The best encounter thus far, though, was with the "lost" woman on my street. Walking home from work one day, I ran into a young woman who looked frightfully lost in my Arlington neighborhood. I made myself available to her, sensing that she caused no harm, and she immediately began drilling me about who I was voting for and why I haven't thought seriously enough about this election. Upon making it clear to her that I didn't have time to argue with her, she arranged herself more in my personal space and began to discuss abortion, volunteering to me that she had lost a friend to illegal abortion. This woman was obviously born after Roe v. Wade, which led me to conclude that her friend's illegal abortion must have occurred in another country or that maybe this woman was telling lies to solicit my emotion. Being a nimble, petite woman, I navigated myself around her and left her calling out after me in the streets. I walked around the block to make sure that she wouldn't discover which house I live in.
Speaking of my house, I have received enough Obama propaganda that I could literally wall-paper my entire living room with it....
I have been receiving numerous unknown cell phone calls as of late. I once answered during a thunderstorm, and an enthusiastic young man asked if I was planning on voting for Obama. I told him that I didn't want to talk about it and would prefer it if he didn't call back. He understood, apologized, and, to make up for it all, called me back five minutes later to ask the same question....
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
NEWSPAPERS (26 OF THEM!) THAT BACKED BUSH MOVE TO OBAMA
26 Papers That Backed Bush in 2004 Move to Obama
By Dexter Hill
NEWYORK Taking a look at our daily endorsement tally so far, the Obama-Biden ticket has a hefty lead in both total newspapers and total circulation. But another figure that favors the Democratic candidates is the number of newspapers that have endorsed Sen. Obama despite supporting President Bush’s reelection in 2004.
At least twenty-six newspapers have switched their support to the Democrat, while only four newspapers (all in the South) endorsing Sen. McCain supported John Kerry in 2004.
In California alone, the Obama-Biden ticket picked-up six newspapers that endorsed President Bush in 2004.
He also gained a few papers, such as the Los Angeles Times and Cleveland's Plain Dealer that did no endorse either candidate in 2004.
Our full tally of all endorsements, with Obama ahead by about 115 to 40, updated Monday here.
The switchers:
BARACK OBAMA (26)
CALIFORNIA
Long Beach Press Telegram (B): 85,595
Pasadena Star-News (B): 27,894
San Gabriel Valley Tribune (B): 40,051
The (Stockton) Record (B): 57,486
San Bernardino Sun (B): 54,315
Tri-Valley Herald (B): 29,759
COLORADO
The Denver Post (B): 225,193
CONNECTICUT
New Haven Register (B): 72,613
FLORIDA
Naples Daily-News (B): 66,272
ILLINOIS
Chicago Tribune (B): 541,663
INDIANA
Palladium-Item (Richmond) (B): 15,453
IOWA
Mason City Globe Gazette (B): 17,666
NEW JERSEY
Asbury Park Press (Neptune) (B): 140,882
NEW MEXICO
Las Cruces Sun-News (B): 21,341
NEW YORK
Daily News (B): 703,137
OHIO
Hamilton Journal-News (B): 19,432
The Repository (Canton) (B): 65,789
The Times-Reporter (New Philadelphia) (B): 22,428
OREGON
Yamhill Valley News-Register (McMinnville) (B): 10,921
PENNSYLVANIA
The Express-Times (Easton) (B): 44,561
TEXAS
Austin American-Statesman (B): 170,309
Houston Chronicle (B): 494,131
UTAH
The Salt Lake Tribune (B): 121,699
WASHINGTON
The Columbian (B): 44,623
Yakima Herald-Republic (B): 38,077
WISCONSIN
Wisconsin State Journal (Madison) (B): 87,930
JOHN McCAIN (4)
FLORIDA
Bradenton Herald (K): 48,618
TENNESSEE
The Jackson Sun (K): 32,121
TEXAS
Corpus Christi Caller-Times (K): 53,368
VIRGINIA
Daily Press (Newport News) (K): 91,508
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dexter Hill
By Dexter Hill
NEWYORK Taking a look at our daily endorsement tally so far, the Obama-Biden ticket has a hefty lead in both total newspapers and total circulation. But another figure that favors the Democratic candidates is the number of newspapers that have endorsed Sen. Obama despite supporting President Bush’s reelection in 2004.
At least twenty-six newspapers have switched their support to the Democrat, while only four newspapers (all in the South) endorsing Sen. McCain supported John Kerry in 2004.
In California alone, the Obama-Biden ticket picked-up six newspapers that endorsed President Bush in 2004.
He also gained a few papers, such as the Los Angeles Times and Cleveland's Plain Dealer that did no endorse either candidate in 2004.
Our full tally of all endorsements, with Obama ahead by about 115 to 40, updated Monday here.
The switchers:
BARACK OBAMA (26)
CALIFORNIA
Long Beach Press Telegram (B): 85,595
Pasadena Star-News (B): 27,894
San Gabriel Valley Tribune (B): 40,051
The (Stockton) Record (B): 57,486
San Bernardino Sun (B): 54,315
Tri-Valley Herald (B): 29,759
COLORADO
The Denver Post (B): 225,193
CONNECTICUT
New Haven Register (B): 72,613
FLORIDA
Naples Daily-News (B): 66,272
ILLINOIS
Chicago Tribune (B): 541,663
INDIANA
Palladium-Item (Richmond) (B): 15,453
IOWA
Mason City Globe Gazette (B): 17,666
NEW JERSEY
Asbury Park Press (Neptune) (B): 140,882
NEW MEXICO
Las Cruces Sun-News (B): 21,341
NEW YORK
Daily News (B): 703,137
OHIO
Hamilton Journal-News (B): 19,432
The Repository (Canton) (B): 65,789
The Times-Reporter (New Philadelphia) (B): 22,428
OREGON
Yamhill Valley News-Register (McMinnville) (B): 10,921
PENNSYLVANIA
The Express-Times (Easton) (B): 44,561
TEXAS
Austin American-Statesman (B): 170,309
Houston Chronicle (B): 494,131
UTAH
The Salt Lake Tribune (B): 121,699
WASHINGTON
The Columbian (B): 44,623
Yakima Herald-Republic (B): 38,077
WISCONSIN
Wisconsin State Journal (Madison) (B): 87,930
JOHN McCAIN (4)
FLORIDA
Bradenton Herald (K): 48,618
TENNESSEE
The Jackson Sun (K): 32,121
TEXAS
Corpus Christi Caller-Times (K): 53,368
VIRGINIA
Daily Press (Newport News) (K): 91,508
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dexter Hill
Good News
Barack Obama's favorability "is the highest for a presidential candidate running for a first term in the last 28 years" of New York Times/CBS polls.
Meanwhile, the Times reports, Sarah Palin's "negative rating is the highest for a vice-presidential candidate as measured by The Times and CBS News. Even Dan Quayle, with whom Mrs. Palin is often compared because of her age and inexperience on the national scene, was not viewed as negatively in the 1988 campaign."
Florida: Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton sharing a stage in Orlando as 50,000 enthusiastically united Democrats cheered them on.
Meanwhile, the Times reports, Sarah Palin's "negative rating is the highest for a vice-presidential candidate as measured by The Times and CBS News. Even Dan Quayle, with whom Mrs. Palin is often compared because of her age and inexperience on the national scene, was not viewed as negatively in the 1988 campaign."
Florida: Sen. Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton sharing a stage in Orlando as 50,000 enthusiastically united Democrats cheered them on.
Monday, October 20, 2008
OBAMA'S GRANDMOTHER
Grandmother ailing, Obama will leave trail
Obama aide Robert Gibbs says Obama's grandmother, who lives in Hawaii, is ailing, and that Obama will leave the campaign trail for two days at the end of this week:
Senator Obama's grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, has always been one of the most important people in his life. Along with his mother and his grandfather, she raised him in Hawaii from the time he was born until the moment he left for college. As he said at the Democratic Convention, she poured everything she had into him.
Recently, his Grandmother has become ill, and in the last few weeks, her health has deteriorated to the point where her situation is very serious. It is for that reason that Senator Obama has decided to change his schedule on Thursday and Friday so that he can see her and spend some time with her. He will be returning the the campaign trail on Saturday.
Obama aide Robert Gibbs says Obama's grandmother, who lives in Hawaii, is ailing, and that Obama will leave the campaign trail for two days at the end of this week:
Senator Obama's grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, has always been one of the most important people in his life. Along with his mother and his grandfather, she raised him in Hawaii from the time he was born until the moment he left for college. As he said at the Democratic Convention, she poured everything she had into him.
Recently, his Grandmother has become ill, and in the last few weeks, her health has deteriorated to the point where her situation is very serious. It is for that reason that Senator Obama has decided to change his schedule on Thursday and Friday so that he can see her and spend some time with her. He will be returning the the campaign trail on Saturday.
DON'T REST EASY
Dear MoveOn member,
Across the country, folks like you have been working hard to talk to voters about Barack Obama. Thanks so much for all you've been doing!
Here's one more simple thing you can do right now—it takes just 30 seconds. Do you know Obama supporters who might be watching the news and starting to think that this election's in the bag? That Obama's got this wrapped up?
If so, please forward them the below Top 5 list of reasons Obama supporters can't rest easy. Let's spread this far and wide, and make sure folks don't let up, now that the finish line is in sight!
TOP 5 REASONS OBAMA SUPPORTERS CAN'T REST EASY
1. The polls may be wrong. This is an unprecedented election. No one knows how racism may affect what voters tell pollsters—or what they do in the voting booth. And the polls are narrowing anyway. In the last few days, John McCain has gained ground in most national polls, as his campaign has gone even more negative.
2. Dirty tricks. Republicans are already illegally purging voters from the rolls in some states. They're whipping up hysteria over ACORN to justify more challenges to new voters. Misleading flyers about the voting process have started appearing in black neighborhoods. And of course, many counties still use unsecure voting machines.
3. October surprise. In politics, 15 days is a long time. The next McCain smear could dominate the news for a week. There could be a crisis with Iran, or Bin Laden could release another tape, or worse.
4. Those who forget history... In 2000, Al Gore won the popular vote after trailing by seven points in the final days of the race. In 1980, Reagan was eight points down in the polls in late October and came back to win. Races can shift—fast!
5. Landslide. Even with Barack Obama in the White House, passing universal health care and a new clean-energy policy is going to be hard. Insurance, drug and oil companies will fight us every step of the way. We need the kind of landslide that will give Barack a huge mandate.
We're just 15 days away from turning the page on the Bush era—but we can't afford to take our eye off the ball. We've got to keep pushing until the very end.
Across the country, folks like you have been working hard to talk to voters about Barack Obama. Thanks so much for all you've been doing!
Here's one more simple thing you can do right now—it takes just 30 seconds. Do you know Obama supporters who might be watching the news and starting to think that this election's in the bag? That Obama's got this wrapped up?
If so, please forward them the below Top 5 list of reasons Obama supporters can't rest easy. Let's spread this far and wide, and make sure folks don't let up, now that the finish line is in sight!
TOP 5 REASONS OBAMA SUPPORTERS CAN'T REST EASY
1. The polls may be wrong. This is an unprecedented election. No one knows how racism may affect what voters tell pollsters—or what they do in the voting booth. And the polls are narrowing anyway. In the last few days, John McCain has gained ground in most national polls, as his campaign has gone even more negative.
2. Dirty tricks. Republicans are already illegally purging voters from the rolls in some states. They're whipping up hysteria over ACORN to justify more challenges to new voters. Misleading flyers about the voting process have started appearing in black neighborhoods. And of course, many counties still use unsecure voting machines.
3. October surprise. In politics, 15 days is a long time. The next McCain smear could dominate the news for a week. There could be a crisis with Iran, or Bin Laden could release another tape, or worse.
4. Those who forget history... In 2000, Al Gore won the popular vote after trailing by seven points in the final days of the race. In 1980, Reagan was eight points down in the polls in late October and came back to win. Races can shift—fast!
5. Landslide. Even with Barack Obama in the White House, passing universal health care and a new clean-energy policy is going to be hard. Insurance, drug and oil companies will fight us every step of the way. We need the kind of landslide that will give Barack a huge mandate.
We're just 15 days away from turning the page on the Bush era—but we can't afford to take our eye off the ball. We've got to keep pushing until the very end.
GIVING UP ON COLORADO, NEW MEXICO, IOWA???!!!??
CNN
CNN's John King reports that the Republican team is "making tough decisions" as it sees Colorado as well as New Mexico and Iowa drift away.
CNN's John King reports that the Republican team is "making tough decisions" as it sees Colorado as well as New Mexico and Iowa drift away.
New Pollsters
Poll analysis sites put new spin on statistics
Reyhan Harmanci, SF Chronicle Staff Writer
Saturday, October 18, 2008
No matter which presidential candidate is elected on Nov. 4, there's already a clear winner in the 2008 campaign season - Nate Silver, 30, the founder of polling analysis Web site FiveThirtyEight.com.
In just a few months, Silver has gone from being an anonymous blogger to the toast of political junkies in red and blue states alike. The baseball statistician-turned-polling wizard has been heralded as a "rookie of the year" by Time magazine's Joe Klein, invited to spend election night with Dan Rather, profiled in New York and Newsweek magazines, and asked to appear on MSNBC with Keith Olbermann and "The Colbert Report" with Stephen Colbert. His 8-month-old site, run by a voluntary staff of three, is getting more than 600,000 hits a day. His Facebook fan group - the surest sign of Internet fame - features comments from readers in Australia and England.
Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com (named for the number of electoral votes) is one of a new breed of aggregated polling sites that collect, analyze and graph state and national polls. With the 24-hour news cycle grinding out an unprecedented amount of polling information, sites like FiveThirtyEight.com, Pollster.com, the Princeton Election Consortium (election.princeton.edu) and RealClearPolitics.com are giving voters new tools to interpret the tsunami of electoral data.
The poll aggregators cut through the maze of numbers with clear graphs, copious explanations of methodology and lively blog posts. And with the election only weeks away, even people with no knowledge of statistics are turning to the sites for guidance about which polls to trust.
The site purveyors are a mix of former pollsters, academics and statisticians. Each uses different mathematical models to contextualize the polling information. Some, like FiveThirtyEight.com, rate the pollsters on past performance and methodology; others find computing averages of numerous polls to be the most effective prediction technique. In the case of FiveThirtyEight.com, Silver's innovation was to add demographic data to polling numbers, which resulted in the accurate prediction that Sen. Barack Obama would capture Iowa in the Democratic primaries, something many pundits didn't think was possible.
Part of the reason aggregated polling sites have sprung up this election season is that, as San Francisco political consultant David Binder put it, "Every cycle, there are more and more polls. When I first started (20 years ago), there were only a couple of pollsters in the country." Pollster growth is "on a straight upward incline," added CBS polling head Kathy Frankovic.
Sea of information
This onslaught of information is keeping polling aggregators busy. Pollster.com founder Mark Blumenthal said he looks at about 16 new polls every day for the presidential election and six to seven for House and Senate races. Silver has posted ratings for 32 pollsters on his site and said that with the election only a few weeks away, he looks at 20 or 25 new polls on weekdays and five or 10 on weekends.
"I'm not sleeping much," Silver admitted.
Although the number of polls is growing, individual predictions by pollsters are not growing more accurate. In the Democratic primaries, for example, reputable surveyors like Gallup and Zogby failed to anticipate Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's win in New Hampshire. Structural issues, such as the growing number of cell phone-only households, are thought to hamper traditional polling techniques. And although Internet polling has become more popular, it is frowned upon by many pollsters who find the group too self-selected to provide an adequate random or representative sampling.
"One of the reasons I started FiveThirtyEight was because I thought there's more that could be done," said Silver, who was well known in sporting circles for his work at Baseball Prospectus, a statistical think tank that had success forecasting Major League Baseball winners and losers. "RealClearPolitics, for example, just takes an average of the polls. It has a strong brand, but if this is all they are doing - and they are getting that much traffic out of that - I thought we could do something more interesting and sophisticated."
Blogger's path
With no previous political experience, Silver began blogging under the name "Poblano" at the Daily Kos Web site this past winter. He launched FiveThirtyEight.com in March with a number of new tools that he invented to track and predict the presidential election in much the same way he had tracked and predicted baseball.
While Silver focuses on refining the predictive capabilities of the available polling data through complex mathematical machinations, other analysts have different goals. Sam Wang, a Princeton neuroscientist and founder of the Princeton Election Consortium, said, "What's needed is the simplest statistical measure that captures all of the data.
"We definitely have differing points of view about what's important to do with polling data," Wang said of his fellow aggregators. "My view is that, historically, state polls have been an extremely accurate predictor of the national race. By simply averaging them, you are right 98 percent of the time."
Wang also is skeptical of using polls as more than snapshots of a moment in time. For him, polling is better used to illuminate the present situation rather than to predict the future.
"This meta-analysis allows me to track the ups and downs. You can see, for instance, if it worked for McCain to add Palin to the ticket. You can see the results day by day, week by week. That's the power of it," Wang said.
Veteran pollster-turned-analyst Blumenthal, who began posting as "Mystery Pollster" at a Web site of the same name in mid-2004 before teaming up in 2006 with University of Wisconsin political science Professor Charles Franklin to create Pollster.com, takes a different approach. Pollster.com uses every available poll that claims to be a representative sample to create interactive graphs.
"We draw pictures," Blumenthal said. "We make it graphical. The way we do the chart, we plot every result as a dot for McCain or Obama, and then draw a regression trend line."
By presenting a large cross-section of polling information, Blumenthal aims to let readers manipulate the data themselves.
"We deliver on the mission to empower and put tools in the hands of the ordinary amateur," he said. "The hundreds of thousands of people who visit our site are really interested in what the polls have to say, rather than us being an officious oracle."
Some traditional pollsters are less than convinced by the methods of polling aggregators. There's an issue here - not all polls are created equal. Some have more rigorous methodology than others. You lose something by simply offering aggregations," said Frankovic.
Pollster John Zogby said he doesn't know FiveThirtyEight "from a hole in the wall" and found Pollster.com to be "very inside baseball for geeks." In general though, he said that "polling aggregation is a good thing" because it enriches political discourse.
"The big question is: The surveys are fallible, but by how much?" said Blumenthal. "We become better educated consumers to the extent that we understand (a poll's) limitations.
Online resources
Polling aggregate sites mentioned in this article:
-- www.FiveThirtyEight.com
-- www.Pollster.com
-- election.princeton.edu
-- www.RealClear Politics.com.
Reyhan Harmanci, SF Chronicle Staff Writer
Saturday, October 18, 2008
No matter which presidential candidate is elected on Nov. 4, there's already a clear winner in the 2008 campaign season - Nate Silver, 30, the founder of polling analysis Web site FiveThirtyEight.com.
In just a few months, Silver has gone from being an anonymous blogger to the toast of political junkies in red and blue states alike. The baseball statistician-turned-polling wizard has been heralded as a "rookie of the year" by Time magazine's Joe Klein, invited to spend election night with Dan Rather, profiled in New York and Newsweek magazines, and asked to appear on MSNBC with Keith Olbermann and "The Colbert Report" with Stephen Colbert. His 8-month-old site, run by a voluntary staff of three, is getting more than 600,000 hits a day. His Facebook fan group - the surest sign of Internet fame - features comments from readers in Australia and England.
Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com (named for the number of electoral votes) is one of a new breed of aggregated polling sites that collect, analyze and graph state and national polls. With the 24-hour news cycle grinding out an unprecedented amount of polling information, sites like FiveThirtyEight.com, Pollster.com, the Princeton Election Consortium (election.princeton.edu) and RealClearPolitics.com are giving voters new tools to interpret the tsunami of electoral data.
The poll aggregators cut through the maze of numbers with clear graphs, copious explanations of methodology and lively blog posts. And with the election only weeks away, even people with no knowledge of statistics are turning to the sites for guidance about which polls to trust.
The site purveyors are a mix of former pollsters, academics and statisticians. Each uses different mathematical models to contextualize the polling information. Some, like FiveThirtyEight.com, rate the pollsters on past performance and methodology; others find computing averages of numerous polls to be the most effective prediction technique. In the case of FiveThirtyEight.com, Silver's innovation was to add demographic data to polling numbers, which resulted in the accurate prediction that Sen. Barack Obama would capture Iowa in the Democratic primaries, something many pundits didn't think was possible.
Part of the reason aggregated polling sites have sprung up this election season is that, as San Francisco political consultant David Binder put it, "Every cycle, there are more and more polls. When I first started (20 years ago), there were only a couple of pollsters in the country." Pollster growth is "on a straight upward incline," added CBS polling head Kathy Frankovic.
Sea of information
This onslaught of information is keeping polling aggregators busy. Pollster.com founder Mark Blumenthal said he looks at about 16 new polls every day for the presidential election and six to seven for House and Senate races. Silver has posted ratings for 32 pollsters on his site and said that with the election only a few weeks away, he looks at 20 or 25 new polls on weekdays and five or 10 on weekends.
"I'm not sleeping much," Silver admitted.
Although the number of polls is growing, individual predictions by pollsters are not growing more accurate. In the Democratic primaries, for example, reputable surveyors like Gallup and Zogby failed to anticipate Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's win in New Hampshire. Structural issues, such as the growing number of cell phone-only households, are thought to hamper traditional polling techniques. And although Internet polling has become more popular, it is frowned upon by many pollsters who find the group too self-selected to provide an adequate random or representative sampling.
"One of the reasons I started FiveThirtyEight was because I thought there's more that could be done," said Silver, who was well known in sporting circles for his work at Baseball Prospectus, a statistical think tank that had success forecasting Major League Baseball winners and losers. "RealClearPolitics, for example, just takes an average of the polls. It has a strong brand, but if this is all they are doing - and they are getting that much traffic out of that - I thought we could do something more interesting and sophisticated."
Blogger's path
With no previous political experience, Silver began blogging under the name "Poblano" at the Daily Kos Web site this past winter. He launched FiveThirtyEight.com in March with a number of new tools that he invented to track and predict the presidential election in much the same way he had tracked and predicted baseball.
While Silver focuses on refining the predictive capabilities of the available polling data through complex mathematical machinations, other analysts have different goals. Sam Wang, a Princeton neuroscientist and founder of the Princeton Election Consortium, said, "What's needed is the simplest statistical measure that captures all of the data.
"We definitely have differing points of view about what's important to do with polling data," Wang said of his fellow aggregators. "My view is that, historically, state polls have been an extremely accurate predictor of the national race. By simply averaging them, you are right 98 percent of the time."
Wang also is skeptical of using polls as more than snapshots of a moment in time. For him, polling is better used to illuminate the present situation rather than to predict the future.
"This meta-analysis allows me to track the ups and downs. You can see, for instance, if it worked for McCain to add Palin to the ticket. You can see the results day by day, week by week. That's the power of it," Wang said.
Veteran pollster-turned-analyst Blumenthal, who began posting as "Mystery Pollster" at a Web site of the same name in mid-2004 before teaming up in 2006 with University of Wisconsin political science Professor Charles Franklin to create Pollster.com, takes a different approach. Pollster.com uses every available poll that claims to be a representative sample to create interactive graphs.
"We draw pictures," Blumenthal said. "We make it graphical. The way we do the chart, we plot every result as a dot for McCain or Obama, and then draw a regression trend line."
By presenting a large cross-section of polling information, Blumenthal aims to let readers manipulate the data themselves.
"We deliver on the mission to empower and put tools in the hands of the ordinary amateur," he said. "The hundreds of thousands of people who visit our site are really interested in what the polls have to say, rather than us being an officious oracle."
Some traditional pollsters are less than convinced by the methods of polling aggregators. There's an issue here - not all polls are created equal. Some have more rigorous methodology than others. You lose something by simply offering aggregations," said Frankovic.
Pollster John Zogby said he doesn't know FiveThirtyEight "from a hole in the wall" and found Pollster.com to be "very inside baseball for geeks." In general though, he said that "polling aggregation is a good thing" because it enriches political discourse.
"The big question is: The surveys are fallible, but by how much?" said Blumenthal. "We become better educated consumers to the extent that we understand (a poll's) limitations.
Online resources
Polling aggregate sites mentioned in this article:
-- www.FiveThirtyEight.com
-- www.Pollster.com
-- election.princeton.edu
-- www.RealClear Politics.com.
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Inspiring/Touching Story from The Politico
by Ben Smith (The Politico)
My reader, whose family hails from Martinsville, writes:
I was raised by my grandmother and am from a military family. Everyone is a Republican. I was the first to go to college and am finishing up my graduate degree....
I am currently in a relationship with a black man in what John McCain would describe as the "real Virginia." My family, after three years are just now becoming comfortable, if you want to call it that, with my boyfriend. They claim that he isn't like all of the other *****.
Before my grandmother died she left me with a note that she didn't want me to open until she died. I opened that letter. My grandmother -- who has never referred to blacks appropriately -- had [early] voted for Obama. She called him a "socialist" in her letter but she voted for him because she said that maybe the values that her parents instilled in her, which was to hate anyone that didn't look like her, would not be passed on if people saw Obama in office.
It was especially touching given my current relationship, and I honestly believe that there are many others out there just like my grandmother. Take it for what it's worth but I believe that Obama will not only win my home state of Virginia, and that includes doing well in the "real Virginia" as well as win this election.
My reader, whose family hails from Martinsville, writes:
I was raised by my grandmother and am from a military family. Everyone is a Republican. I was the first to go to college and am finishing up my graduate degree....
I am currently in a relationship with a black man in what John McCain would describe as the "real Virginia." My family, after three years are just now becoming comfortable, if you want to call it that, with my boyfriend. They claim that he isn't like all of the other *****.
Before my grandmother died she left me with a note that she didn't want me to open until she died. I opened that letter. My grandmother -- who has never referred to blacks appropriately -- had [early] voted for Obama. She called him a "socialist" in her letter but she voted for him because she said that maybe the values that her parents instilled in her, which was to hate anyone that didn't look like her, would not be passed on if people saw Obama in office.
It was especially touching given my current relationship, and I honestly believe that there are many others out there just like my grandmother. Take it for what it's worth but I believe that Obama will not only win my home state of Virginia, and that includes doing well in the "real Virginia" as well as win this election.
OBAMA'S GROUND GAME
19 Oct 2008 09:29 pm
The Ground Game by Andrew Sullivan of the Atlantic Monthly
It's what could make the final difference in this campaign. As I said on Chris Matthews this morning, this race has tightened a bit already and will probably tighten again. But it is also possible that the race could widen, and defy the final polls - in Obama's direction. Why? Money and organization:
Obama's primary campaign was brilliant, not just because his message was so powerful: it was because he worked out how to make the machinery of politics work for him. He mastered the art of the caucus; he used the internet as a way to find voters and then got them to the primaries and caucuses. He beat the Clintons largely because he out-hustled them on the ground. Remember 2004? The reason Karl Rove and George Bush won, despite losing in many polls, was because they found and organised a new bloc of white, evangelical voters and brought them to the ballot box. This time, it’s Obama who has found the new voters under the radar: the young, the disengaged, various minorities and a large phalanx of middle-class white Americans. Of all the unprecedented money he has raised, he has poured an equally unprecedented amount into his ground game.
Staff and volunteers are right now working phones relentlessly, walking streets, knocking on doors, constructing peer-to-peer networks and focusing almost mani-cally on turning out their voters on election day and before. Obama has even managed to insert ads for early voting into video games.
Voting has already begun in many states, by postal vote and old-fashioned ballot boxes. The candidate who has the superior organisation will add at least a couple of points to his eventual margin. I know of no objective observer who doesn’t believe that Obama’s ground game is much, much better than McCain’s right now.
HIS MAJOR ENEMY IS COMPLACENCY IS AMONG THE YOUNG!!!
The Ground Game by Andrew Sullivan of the Atlantic Monthly
It's what could make the final difference in this campaign. As I said on Chris Matthews this morning, this race has tightened a bit already and will probably tighten again. But it is also possible that the race could widen, and defy the final polls - in Obama's direction. Why? Money and organization:
Obama's primary campaign was brilliant, not just because his message was so powerful: it was because he worked out how to make the machinery of politics work for him. He mastered the art of the caucus; he used the internet as a way to find voters and then got them to the primaries and caucuses. He beat the Clintons largely because he out-hustled them on the ground. Remember 2004? The reason Karl Rove and George Bush won, despite losing in many polls, was because they found and organised a new bloc of white, evangelical voters and brought them to the ballot box. This time, it’s Obama who has found the new voters under the radar: the young, the disengaged, various minorities and a large phalanx of middle-class white Americans. Of all the unprecedented money he has raised, he has poured an equally unprecedented amount into his ground game.
Staff and volunteers are right now working phones relentlessly, walking streets, knocking on doors, constructing peer-to-peer networks and focusing almost mani-cally on turning out their voters on election day and before. Obama has even managed to insert ads for early voting into video games.
Voting has already begun in many states, by postal vote and old-fashioned ballot boxes. The candidate who has the superior organisation will add at least a couple of points to his eventual margin. I know of no objective observer who doesn’t believe that Obama’s ground game is much, much better than McCain’s right now.
HIS MAJOR ENEMY IS COMPLACENCY IS AMONG THE YOUNG!!!
Friday, October 17, 2008
OBAMA CAMP SEEKS SPECIAL PROSECUTOR ON ACORN
Obama Camp Seeks Special Prosecutor on Acorn Inquiries
By Michael Falcone
Seeking to portray law enforcement investigations into reports of fraudulent voter registrations in several states as an extension of the controversial firings of United States attorneys, the Obama campaign on Friday called for a review by a special prosecutor.
Bob Bauer, general counsel for the Obama campaign, sent a letter to Attorney General Michael B. Mukasey and Special Prosecutor Nora R. Dannehy, who is investigating the attorney firings, requesting that Ms. Dannehy also look into the whether F.B.I. investigations of the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now, or Acorn, were politically motivated.
In a conference call with reporters on Friday, Mr. Bauer suggested that there was “an unholy alliance of law enforcement and the ugliest form of partisan politics.”
“There is ample reason for us to be concerned about Republican involvement and we believe this ought to be included in the special prosecutor’s mandate,” Mr. Bauer said.
Mr. Bauer spoke to reporters after the McCain campaign manager Rick Davis stepped up his attacks on Acorn on Friday, saying that reports of fraudulent voter registrations cast a “cloud of suspicion,” over the election.
In his letter, Mr. Bauer wrote:
I request that Special Prosecutor Dannehy’s inquiry include a review of any involvement by Justice Department and White House officials in supporting the McCain-Palin campaign and the Republican National Committee (“RNC”)’s systematic development and dissemination of unsupported, spurious allegations of vote fraud. It is highly likely that the very sort of politically motivated conduct identified in the Department’s investigation to date, necessitating the appointment of a Special Prosecutor, is repeating itself, and for the same reason: unwarranted and politically motivated intervention in the upcoming election. An investigation must be entrusted to government officials who do not have an improper political motivation or a conflict of interest, either in fact or appearance.
Privately law enforcement officials have said that the F.B.I. inquiries in several states into the fraudulent voter registration cards did not amount to a national investigation. Just today, another lawsuit was filed in Pennsylvania.
A spokesman for the McCain campaign, Ben Porritt, responded to the Obama team’s letter by saying that it represented an attempt to “criminalize political discourse.”
“Today’s outrageous letter to Attorney General Mukasey and Special Prosecutor Dannehy at the Justice Department asking for a special prosecutor to investigate Senator McCain and Governor Palin’s public statements about ACORN’s record of fraudulent voter registrations (including in this week’s Presidential debate) is absurd,” Mr. Porritt said in a statment. “It is a typical time-worn Washington attempt to criminalize political differences.”
By Michael Falcone
Seeking to portray law enforcement investigations into reports of fraudulent voter registrations in several states as an extension of the controversial firings of United States attorneys, the Obama campaign on Friday called for a review by a special prosecutor.
Bob Bauer, general counsel for the Obama campaign, sent a letter to Attorney General Michael B. Mukasey and Special Prosecutor Nora R. Dannehy, who is investigating the attorney firings, requesting that Ms. Dannehy also look into the whether F.B.I. investigations of the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now, or Acorn, were politically motivated.
In a conference call with reporters on Friday, Mr. Bauer suggested that there was “an unholy alliance of law enforcement and the ugliest form of partisan politics.”
“There is ample reason for us to be concerned about Republican involvement and we believe this ought to be included in the special prosecutor’s mandate,” Mr. Bauer said.
Mr. Bauer spoke to reporters after the McCain campaign manager Rick Davis stepped up his attacks on Acorn on Friday, saying that reports of fraudulent voter registrations cast a “cloud of suspicion,” over the election.
In his letter, Mr. Bauer wrote:
I request that Special Prosecutor Dannehy’s inquiry include a review of any involvement by Justice Department and White House officials in supporting the McCain-Palin campaign and the Republican National Committee (“RNC”)’s systematic development and dissemination of unsupported, spurious allegations of vote fraud. It is highly likely that the very sort of politically motivated conduct identified in the Department’s investigation to date, necessitating the appointment of a Special Prosecutor, is repeating itself, and for the same reason: unwarranted and politically motivated intervention in the upcoming election. An investigation must be entrusted to government officials who do not have an improper political motivation or a conflict of interest, either in fact or appearance.
Privately law enforcement officials have said that the F.B.I. inquiries in several states into the fraudulent voter registration cards did not amount to a national investigation. Just today, another lawsuit was filed in Pennsylvania.
A spokesman for the McCain campaign, Ben Porritt, responded to the Obama team’s letter by saying that it represented an attempt to “criminalize political discourse.”
“Today’s outrageous letter to Attorney General Mukasey and Special Prosecutor Dannehy at the Justice Department asking for a special prosecutor to investigate Senator McCain and Governor Palin’s public statements about ACORN’s record of fraudulent voter registrations (including in this week’s Presidential debate) is absurd,” Mr. Porritt said in a statment. “It is a typical time-worn Washington attempt to criminalize political differences.”
Chicago Tribune Endorses Obama
This is significant as the headline indicates, it's the first time the Chicago Tribune has endorsed a Democrat--including when another Dem. candidate from Illinois, Adlai Stevenson ran in 1952 and 1956.
Obama Picks up First Tribune Democratic Endorsement
By Larry Rohter AND Kitty Bennett
For the first time in its 161-year history, the Chicago Tribune is endorsing a Democrat for president.
The newspaper, which has links to the Republican Party that date back to the founding of the G.O.P., said Friday that Senator Barack Obama is the strongest choice “to lead us through a perilous time and restore in us a common sense of national purpose.”
With that startling departure, the Tribune joined a growing list of large daily newspapers across the country that have stated a preference for the Democratic nominee over Senator John McCain, his Republican rival. A quick survey shows Mr. Obama winning the backing of an overwhelming majority of dailies with circulations over 100,000 that have already made endorsements. Mr. McCain has won the endorsements of The New York Post and The Boston Herald, among others.
Several of the newspapers that have endorsed Mr. Obama cited his youth and freshness on the national scene, along with Mr. McCain’s age, as factors in their decision.
“Not since John F. Kennedy has a presidential candidate so moved a young generation,” wrote The San Jose Mercury News, while The St. Louis Post-Dispatch noted that “the 25-year difference in the ages of Mr. McCain, 72, and Mr. Obama, 47, is important largely because Mr. Obama’s election would represent a generational shift.”
The Washington Post and The Los Angeles Times also endorsed the Democratic candidate this week, as did the Spanish-language dailies La Opinion in Los Angeles and El Diario -La Prensa in New York.
But none of those statements of support was as surprising as that of the Tribune, whose early leaders helped found the Republican Party and aided Abraham Lincoln in securing the Republican nomination for president in 1860.
In its endorsement, The Chicago Tribune noted that it was breaking with a long tradition. But it justified the shift by citing what it called Mr. Obama’s “honor, grace and civility” under pressure and criticizing Mr. McCain’s choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, which it described as a failure of judgment in which Mr. McCain put his campaign ahead of the country’s needs.
“We have tremendous confidence in his intellectual rigor, his moral compass and his ability to make sound, thoughtful, careful decisions,” the newspaper said of Mr. Obama. “He is ready.”
Mr. Obama, of course, represents the state of Illinois and the city of Chicago, the Tribune’s home turf. But Gov. Adlai Stevenson, the Democratic nominee in 1952 and 1956, was also from Illinois and failed to secure the paper’s support when he ran against Dwight D. Eisenhower, as did Senator Steven Douglas, a Democratic nominee in 1860.
No one knows to what extent, if at all, voters are influenced in their decisions by the endorsements of their hometown newspapers. But several of the dailies that have come out in favor of Mr. Obama are in battleground states where the Obama campaign is sure to trumpet their support as it pursues independent, undecided voters.
Numerous other newspapers, including The New York Times, have not yet stated a preference for either Mr. McCain or Mr. Obama. During the primary season, The Times endorsed Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton as the Democratic nominee and Mr. McCain as the Republican candidate.
Getting the backing of The Chicago Tribune is not the only first in the way of campaign endorsements that Mr. Obama has scored this year. Esquire magazine is also backing him, the first time in that magazine’s 75-year history that it has declared a preference for a presidential candidate, and so are publications as different as the music monthly Vibe and the trade publication Internet Retailer, which said he would provide “a stable economy in which e-commerce can flourish.”
Obama Picks up First Tribune Democratic Endorsement
By Larry Rohter AND Kitty Bennett
For the first time in its 161-year history, the Chicago Tribune is endorsing a Democrat for president.
The newspaper, which has links to the Republican Party that date back to the founding of the G.O.P., said Friday that Senator Barack Obama is the strongest choice “to lead us through a perilous time and restore in us a common sense of national purpose.”
With that startling departure, the Tribune joined a growing list of large daily newspapers across the country that have stated a preference for the Democratic nominee over Senator John McCain, his Republican rival. A quick survey shows Mr. Obama winning the backing of an overwhelming majority of dailies with circulations over 100,000 that have already made endorsements. Mr. McCain has won the endorsements of The New York Post and The Boston Herald, among others.
Several of the newspapers that have endorsed Mr. Obama cited his youth and freshness on the national scene, along with Mr. McCain’s age, as factors in their decision.
“Not since John F. Kennedy has a presidential candidate so moved a young generation,” wrote The San Jose Mercury News, while The St. Louis Post-Dispatch noted that “the 25-year difference in the ages of Mr. McCain, 72, and Mr. Obama, 47, is important largely because Mr. Obama’s election would represent a generational shift.”
The Washington Post and The Los Angeles Times also endorsed the Democratic candidate this week, as did the Spanish-language dailies La Opinion in Los Angeles and El Diario -La Prensa in New York.
But none of those statements of support was as surprising as that of the Tribune, whose early leaders helped found the Republican Party and aided Abraham Lincoln in securing the Republican nomination for president in 1860.
In its endorsement, The Chicago Tribune noted that it was breaking with a long tradition. But it justified the shift by citing what it called Mr. Obama’s “honor, grace and civility” under pressure and criticizing Mr. McCain’s choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, which it described as a failure of judgment in which Mr. McCain put his campaign ahead of the country’s needs.
“We have tremendous confidence in his intellectual rigor, his moral compass and his ability to make sound, thoughtful, careful decisions,” the newspaper said of Mr. Obama. “He is ready.”
Mr. Obama, of course, represents the state of Illinois and the city of Chicago, the Tribune’s home turf. But Gov. Adlai Stevenson, the Democratic nominee in 1952 and 1956, was also from Illinois and failed to secure the paper’s support when he ran against Dwight D. Eisenhower, as did Senator Steven Douglas, a Democratic nominee in 1860.
No one knows to what extent, if at all, voters are influenced in their decisions by the endorsements of their hometown newspapers. But several of the dailies that have come out in favor of Mr. Obama are in battleground states where the Obama campaign is sure to trumpet their support as it pursues independent, undecided voters.
Numerous other newspapers, including The New York Times, have not yet stated a preference for either Mr. McCain or Mr. Obama. During the primary season, The Times endorsed Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton as the Democratic nominee and Mr. McCain as the Republican candidate.
Getting the backing of The Chicago Tribune is not the only first in the way of campaign endorsements that Mr. Obama has scored this year. Esquire magazine is also backing him, the first time in that magazine’s 75-year history that it has declared a preference for a presidential candidate, and so are publications as different as the music monthly Vibe and the trade publication Internet Retailer, which said he would provide “a stable economy in which e-commerce can flourish.”
DAVID BROOKS (ONCE MORE) ON OBAMA
THE NEW YORK TIMES
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
October 17, 2008
Thinking About Obama
By DAVID BROOKS
We’ve been watching Barack Obama for two years now, and in all that time there hasn’t been a moment in which he has publicly lost his self-control. This has been a period of tumult, combat, exhaustion and crisis. And yet there hasn’t been a moment when he has displayed rage, resentment, fear, anxiety, bitterness, tears, ecstasy, self-pity or impulsiveness.
Some candidates are motivated by something they lack. For L.B.J., it was respect. For Bill Clinton, it was adoration. These politicians are motivated to fill that void. Their challenge once in office is self-regulation. How will they control the demons, insecurities and longings that fired their ambitions?
But other candidates are propelled by what some psychologists call self-efficacy, the placid assumption that they can handle whatever the future throws at them. Candidates in this mold, most heroically F.D.R. and Ronald Reagan, are driven upward by a desire to realize some capacity in their nature. They rise with an unshakable serenity that is inexplicable to their critics and infuriating to their foes.
Obama has the biography of the first group but the personality of the second. He grew up with an absent father and a peripatetic mother. “I learned long ago to distrust my childhood,” he wrote in “Dreams From My Father.” This is supposed to produce a politician with gaping personal needs and hidden wounds.
But over the past two years, Obama has never shown evidence of that. Instead, he has shown the same untroubled self-confidence day after day.
There has never been a moment when, at least in public, he seems gripped by inner turmoil. It’s not willpower or self-discipline he shows as much as an organized unconscious. Through some deep, bottom-up process, he has developed strategies for equanimity, and now he’s become a homeostasis machine.
When Bob Schieffer asked him tough questions during the debate Wednesday night, he would step back and describe the broader situation. When John McCain would hit him with some critique — even about fetuses being left to die on a table — he would smile in amusement at the political game they were playing. At every challenging moment, his instinct was to self-remove and establish an observer’s perspective.
Through the debate, he was reassuring and self-composed. McCain, an experienced old hand, would blink furiously over the tension of the moment, but Obama didn’t reveal even unconscious signs of nervousness. There was no hint of an unwanted feeling.
They say we are products of our environments, but Obama, the sojourner, seems to go through various situations without being overly touched by them. Over the past two years, he has been the subject of nearly unparalleled public worship, but far from getting drunk on it, he has become less grandiloquent as the campaign has gone along.
When Bill Clinton campaigned, he tried to seduce his audiences. But at Obama rallies, the candidate is the wooed not the wooer. He doesn’t seem to need the audience’s love. But they need his. The audiences hunger for his affection, while he is calm, appreciative and didactic.
He doesn’t have F.D.R.’s joyful nature or Reagan’s happy outlook, but he is analytical. That’s why this William Ayers business doesn’t stick. He may be liberal, but he is never wild. His family is bourgeois. His instinct is to flee the revolutionary gesture in favor of the six-point plan.
This was not evident back in the “fierce urgency of now” days, but it is now. And it is easy to sketch out a scenario in which he could be a great president. He would be untroubled by self-destructive demons or indiscipline. With that cool manner, he would see reality unfiltered. He could gather — already has gathered — some of the smartest minds in public policy, and, untroubled by intellectual insecurity, he could give them free rein. Though he is young, it is easy to imagine him at the cabinet table, leading a subtle discussion of some long-term problem.
Of course, it’s also easy to imagine a scenario in which he is not an island of rationality in a sea of tumult, but simply an island. New presidents are often amazed by how much they are disobeyed, by how often passive-aggressiveness frustrates their plans.
It could be that Obama will be an observer, not a leader. Rather than throwing himself passionately into his causes, he will stand back. Congressional leaders, put off by his supposed intellectual superiority, will just go their own way. Lost in his own nuance, he will be passive and ineffectual. Lack of passion will produce lack of courage. The Obama greatness will give way to the Obama anti-climax.
We can each guess how the story ends. But over the past two years, Obama has clearly worn well with voters. Far from a celebrity fad, he is self-contained, self-controlled and maybe even a little dull.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
October 17, 2008
Thinking About Obama
By DAVID BROOKS
We’ve been watching Barack Obama for two years now, and in all that time there hasn’t been a moment in which he has publicly lost his self-control. This has been a period of tumult, combat, exhaustion and crisis. And yet there hasn’t been a moment when he has displayed rage, resentment, fear, anxiety, bitterness, tears, ecstasy, self-pity or impulsiveness.
Some candidates are motivated by something they lack. For L.B.J., it was respect. For Bill Clinton, it was adoration. These politicians are motivated to fill that void. Their challenge once in office is self-regulation. How will they control the demons, insecurities and longings that fired their ambitions?
But other candidates are propelled by what some psychologists call self-efficacy, the placid assumption that they can handle whatever the future throws at them. Candidates in this mold, most heroically F.D.R. and Ronald Reagan, are driven upward by a desire to realize some capacity in their nature. They rise with an unshakable serenity that is inexplicable to their critics and infuriating to their foes.
Obama has the biography of the first group but the personality of the second. He grew up with an absent father and a peripatetic mother. “I learned long ago to distrust my childhood,” he wrote in “Dreams From My Father.” This is supposed to produce a politician with gaping personal needs and hidden wounds.
But over the past two years, Obama has never shown evidence of that. Instead, he has shown the same untroubled self-confidence day after day.
There has never been a moment when, at least in public, he seems gripped by inner turmoil. It’s not willpower or self-discipline he shows as much as an organized unconscious. Through some deep, bottom-up process, he has developed strategies for equanimity, and now he’s become a homeostasis machine.
When Bob Schieffer asked him tough questions during the debate Wednesday night, he would step back and describe the broader situation. When John McCain would hit him with some critique — even about fetuses being left to die on a table — he would smile in amusement at the political game they were playing. At every challenging moment, his instinct was to self-remove and establish an observer’s perspective.
Through the debate, he was reassuring and self-composed. McCain, an experienced old hand, would blink furiously over the tension of the moment, but Obama didn’t reveal even unconscious signs of nervousness. There was no hint of an unwanted feeling.
They say we are products of our environments, but Obama, the sojourner, seems to go through various situations without being overly touched by them. Over the past two years, he has been the subject of nearly unparalleled public worship, but far from getting drunk on it, he has become less grandiloquent as the campaign has gone along.
When Bill Clinton campaigned, he tried to seduce his audiences. But at Obama rallies, the candidate is the wooed not the wooer. He doesn’t seem to need the audience’s love. But they need his. The audiences hunger for his affection, while he is calm, appreciative and didactic.
He doesn’t have F.D.R.’s joyful nature or Reagan’s happy outlook, but he is analytical. That’s why this William Ayers business doesn’t stick. He may be liberal, but he is never wild. His family is bourgeois. His instinct is to flee the revolutionary gesture in favor of the six-point plan.
This was not evident back in the “fierce urgency of now” days, but it is now. And it is easy to sketch out a scenario in which he could be a great president. He would be untroubled by self-destructive demons or indiscipline. With that cool manner, he would see reality unfiltered. He could gather — already has gathered — some of the smartest minds in public policy, and, untroubled by intellectual insecurity, he could give them free rein. Though he is young, it is easy to imagine him at the cabinet table, leading a subtle discussion of some long-term problem.
Of course, it’s also easy to imagine a scenario in which he is not an island of rationality in a sea of tumult, but simply an island. New presidents are often amazed by how much they are disobeyed, by how often passive-aggressiveness frustrates their plans.
It could be that Obama will be an observer, not a leader. Rather than throwing himself passionately into his causes, he will stand back. Congressional leaders, put off by his supposed intellectual superiority, will just go their own way. Lost in his own nuance, he will be passive and ineffectual. Lack of passion will produce lack of courage. The Obama greatness will give way to the Obama anti-climax.
We can each guess how the story ends. But over the past two years, Obama has clearly worn well with voters. Far from a celebrity fad, he is self-contained, self-controlled and maybe even a little dull.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Washington Post Endorses Obama
Barack Obama for President
Friday, October 17, 2008; A24
THE NOMINATING process this year produced two unusually talented and qualified presidential candidates. There are few public figures we have respected more over the years than Sen. John McCain. Yet it is without ambivalence that we endorse Sen. Barack Obama for president.
The choice is made easy in part by Mr. McCain's disappointing campaign, above all his irresponsible selection of a running mate who is not ready to be president. It is made easy in larger part, though, because of our admiration for Mr. Obama and the impressive qualities he has shown during this long race. Yes, we have reservations and concerns, almost inevitably, given Mr. Obama's relatively brief experience in national politics. But we also have enormous hopes.
Mr. Obama is a man of supple intelligence, with a nuanced grasp of complex issues and evident skill at conciliation and consensus-building. At home, we believe, he would respond to the economic crisis with a healthy respect for markets tempered by justified dismay over rising inequality and an understanding of the need for focused regulation. Abroad, the best evidence suggests that he would seek to maintain U.S. leadership and engagement, continue the fight against terrorists, and wage vigorous diplomacy on behalf of U.S. values and interests. Mr. Obama has the potential to become a great president. Given the enormous problems he would confront from his first day in office, and the damage wrought over the past eight years, we would settle for very good.
The first question, in fact, might be why either man wants the job. Start with two ongoing wars, both far from being won; an unstable, nuclear-armed Pakistan; a resurgent Russia menacing its neighbors; a terrorist-supporting Iran racing toward nuclear status; a roiling Middle East; a rising China seeking its place in the world. Stir in the threat of nuclear or biological terrorism, the burdens of global poverty and disease, and accelerating climate change. Domestically, wages have stagnated while public education is failing a generation of urban, mostly minority children. Now add the possibility of the deepest economic trough since the Great Depression.
Not even his fiercest critics would blame President Bush for all of these problems, and we are far from being his fiercest critic. But for the past eight years, his administration, while pursuing some worthy policies (accountability in education, homeland security, the promotion of freedom abroad), has also championed some stunningly wrongheaded ones (fiscal recklessness, torture, utter disregard for the planet's ecological health) and has acted too often with incompetence, arrogance or both. A McCain presidency would not equal four more years, but outside of his inner circle, Mr. McCain would draw on many of the same policymakers who have brought us to our current state. We believe they have richly earned, and might even benefit from, some years in the political wilderness.
OF COURSE, Mr. Obama offers a great deal more than being not a Republican. There are two sets of issues that matter most in judging these candidacies. The first has to do with restoring and promoting prosperity and sharing its fruits more evenly in a globalizing era that has suppressed wages and heightened inequality. Here the choice is not a close call. Mr. McCain has little interest in economics and no apparent feel for the topic. His principal proposal, doubling down on the Bush tax cuts, would exacerbate the fiscal wreckage and the inequality simultaneously. Mr. Obama's economic plan contains its share of unaffordable promises, but it pushes more in the direction of fairness and fiscal health. Both men have pledged to tackle climate change.
Mr. Obama also understands that the most important single counter to inequality, and the best way to maintain American competitiveness, is improved education, another subject of only modest interest to Mr. McCain. Mr. Obama would focus attention on early education and on helping families so that another generation of poor children doesn't lose out. His budgets would be less likely to squeeze out important programs such as Head Start and Pell grants. Though he has been less definitive than we would like, he supports accountability measures for public schools and providing parents choices by means of charter schools.
A better health-care system also is crucial to bolstering U.S. competitiveness and relieving worker insecurity. Mr. McCain is right to advocate an end to the tax favoritism showed to employer plans. This system works against lower-income people, and Mr. Obama has disparaged the McCain proposal in deceptive ways. But Mr. McCain's health plan doesn't do enough to protect those who cannot afford health insurance. Mr. Obama hopes to steer the country toward universal coverage by charting a course between government mandates and individual choice, though we question whether his plan is affordable or does enough to contain costs.
The next president is apt to have the chance to nominate one or more Supreme Court justices. Given the court's current precarious balance, we think Obama appointees could have a positive impact on issues from detention policy and executive power to privacy protections and civil rights.
Overshadowing all of these policy choices may be the financial crisis and the recession it is likely to spawn. It is almost impossible to predict what policies will be called for by January, but certainly the country will want in its president a combination of nimbleness and steadfastness -- precisely the qualities Mr. Obama has displayed during the past few weeks. When he might have been scoring political points against the incumbent, he instead responsibly urged fellow Democrats in Congress to back Mr. Bush's financial rescue plan. He has surrounded himself with top-notch, experienced, centrist economic advisers -- perhaps the best warranty that, unlike some past presidents of modest experience, Mr. Obama will not ride into town determined to reinvent every policy wheel. Some have disparaged Mr. Obama as too cool, but his unflappability over the past few weeks -- indeed, over two years of campaigning -- strikes us as exactly what Americans might want in their president at a time of great uncertainty.
ON THE SECOND set of issues, having to do with keeping America safe in a dangerous world, it is a closer call. Mr. McCain has deep knowledge and a longstanding commitment to promoting U.S. leadership and values.
But Mr. Obama, as anyone who reads his books can tell, also has a sophisticated understanding of the world and America's place in it. He, too, is committed to maintaining U.S. leadership and sticking up for democratic values, as his recent defense of tiny Georgia makes clear. We hope he would navigate between the amoral realism of some in his party and the counterproductive cocksureness of the current administration, especially in its first term. On most policies, such as the need to go after al-Qaeda, check Iran's nuclear ambitions and fight HIV/AIDS abroad, he differs little from Mr. Bush or Mr. McCain. But he promises defter diplomacy and greater commitment to allies. His team overstates the likelihood that either of those can produce dramatically better results, but both are certainly worth trying.
Mr. Obama's greatest deviation from current policy is also our biggest worry: his insistence on withdrawing U.S. combat troops from Iraq on a fixed timeline. Thanks to the surge that Mr. Obama opposed, it may be feasible to withdraw many troops during his first two years in office. But if it isn't -- and U.S. generals have warned that the hard-won gains of the past 18 months could be lost by a precipitous withdrawal -- we can only hope and assume that Mr. Obama would recognize the strategic importance of success in Iraq and adjust his plans.
We also can only hope that the alarming anti-trade rhetoric we have heard from Mr. Obama during the campaign would give way to the understanding of the benefits of trade reflected in his writings. A silver lining of the financial crisis may be the flexibility it gives Mr. Obama to override some of the interest groups and members of Congress in his own party who oppose open trade, as well as to pursue the entitlement reform that he surely understands is needed.
IT GIVES US no pleasure to oppose Mr. McCain. Over the years, he has been a force for principle and bipartisanship. He fought to recognize Vietnam, though some of his fellow ex-POWs vilified him for it. He stood up for humane immigration reform, though he knew Republican primary voters would punish him for it. He opposed torture and promoted campaign finance reform, a cause that Mr. Obama injured when he broke his promise to accept public financing in the general election campaign. Mr. McCain staked his career on finding a strategy for success in Iraq when just about everyone else in Washington was ready to give up. We think that he, too, might make a pretty good president.
But the stress of a campaign can reveal some essential truths, and the picture of Mr. McCain that emerged this year is far from reassuring. To pass his party's tax-cut litmus test, he jettisoned his commitment to balanced budgets. He hasn't come up with a coherent agenda, and at times he has seemed rash and impulsive. And we find no way to square his professed passion for America's national security with his choice of a running mate who, no matter what her other strengths, is not prepared to be commander in chief.
ANY PRESIDENTIAL vote is a gamble, and Mr. Obama's résumé is undoubtedly thin. We had hoped, throughout this long campaign, to see more evidence that Mr. Obama might stand up to Democratic orthodoxy and end, as he said in his announcement speech, "our chronic avoidance of tough decisions."
But Mr. Obama's temperament is unlike anything we've seen on the national stage in many years. He is deliberate but not indecisive; eloquent but a master of substance and detail; preternaturally confident but eager to hear opposing points of view. He has inspired millions of voters of diverse ages and races, no small thing in our often divided and cynical country. We think he is the right man for a perilous moment.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company
Friday, October 17, 2008; A24
THE NOMINATING process this year produced two unusually talented and qualified presidential candidates. There are few public figures we have respected more over the years than Sen. John McCain. Yet it is without ambivalence that we endorse Sen. Barack Obama for president.
The choice is made easy in part by Mr. McCain's disappointing campaign, above all his irresponsible selection of a running mate who is not ready to be president. It is made easy in larger part, though, because of our admiration for Mr. Obama and the impressive qualities he has shown during this long race. Yes, we have reservations and concerns, almost inevitably, given Mr. Obama's relatively brief experience in national politics. But we also have enormous hopes.
Mr. Obama is a man of supple intelligence, with a nuanced grasp of complex issues and evident skill at conciliation and consensus-building. At home, we believe, he would respond to the economic crisis with a healthy respect for markets tempered by justified dismay over rising inequality and an understanding of the need for focused regulation. Abroad, the best evidence suggests that he would seek to maintain U.S. leadership and engagement, continue the fight against terrorists, and wage vigorous diplomacy on behalf of U.S. values and interests. Mr. Obama has the potential to become a great president. Given the enormous problems he would confront from his first day in office, and the damage wrought over the past eight years, we would settle for very good.
The first question, in fact, might be why either man wants the job. Start with two ongoing wars, both far from being won; an unstable, nuclear-armed Pakistan; a resurgent Russia menacing its neighbors; a terrorist-supporting Iran racing toward nuclear status; a roiling Middle East; a rising China seeking its place in the world. Stir in the threat of nuclear or biological terrorism, the burdens of global poverty and disease, and accelerating climate change. Domestically, wages have stagnated while public education is failing a generation of urban, mostly minority children. Now add the possibility of the deepest economic trough since the Great Depression.
Not even his fiercest critics would blame President Bush for all of these problems, and we are far from being his fiercest critic. But for the past eight years, his administration, while pursuing some worthy policies (accountability in education, homeland security, the promotion of freedom abroad), has also championed some stunningly wrongheaded ones (fiscal recklessness, torture, utter disregard for the planet's ecological health) and has acted too often with incompetence, arrogance or both. A McCain presidency would not equal four more years, but outside of his inner circle, Mr. McCain would draw on many of the same policymakers who have brought us to our current state. We believe they have richly earned, and might even benefit from, some years in the political wilderness.
OF COURSE, Mr. Obama offers a great deal more than being not a Republican. There are two sets of issues that matter most in judging these candidacies. The first has to do with restoring and promoting prosperity and sharing its fruits more evenly in a globalizing era that has suppressed wages and heightened inequality. Here the choice is not a close call. Mr. McCain has little interest in economics and no apparent feel for the topic. His principal proposal, doubling down on the Bush tax cuts, would exacerbate the fiscal wreckage and the inequality simultaneously. Mr. Obama's economic plan contains its share of unaffordable promises, but it pushes more in the direction of fairness and fiscal health. Both men have pledged to tackle climate change.
Mr. Obama also understands that the most important single counter to inequality, and the best way to maintain American competitiveness, is improved education, another subject of only modest interest to Mr. McCain. Mr. Obama would focus attention on early education and on helping families so that another generation of poor children doesn't lose out. His budgets would be less likely to squeeze out important programs such as Head Start and Pell grants. Though he has been less definitive than we would like, he supports accountability measures for public schools and providing parents choices by means of charter schools.
A better health-care system also is crucial to bolstering U.S. competitiveness and relieving worker insecurity. Mr. McCain is right to advocate an end to the tax favoritism showed to employer plans. This system works against lower-income people, and Mr. Obama has disparaged the McCain proposal in deceptive ways. But Mr. McCain's health plan doesn't do enough to protect those who cannot afford health insurance. Mr. Obama hopes to steer the country toward universal coverage by charting a course between government mandates and individual choice, though we question whether his plan is affordable or does enough to contain costs.
The next president is apt to have the chance to nominate one or more Supreme Court justices. Given the court's current precarious balance, we think Obama appointees could have a positive impact on issues from detention policy and executive power to privacy protections and civil rights.
Overshadowing all of these policy choices may be the financial crisis and the recession it is likely to spawn. It is almost impossible to predict what policies will be called for by January, but certainly the country will want in its president a combination of nimbleness and steadfastness -- precisely the qualities Mr. Obama has displayed during the past few weeks. When he might have been scoring political points against the incumbent, he instead responsibly urged fellow Democrats in Congress to back Mr. Bush's financial rescue plan. He has surrounded himself with top-notch, experienced, centrist economic advisers -- perhaps the best warranty that, unlike some past presidents of modest experience, Mr. Obama will not ride into town determined to reinvent every policy wheel. Some have disparaged Mr. Obama as too cool, but his unflappability over the past few weeks -- indeed, over two years of campaigning -- strikes us as exactly what Americans might want in their president at a time of great uncertainty.
ON THE SECOND set of issues, having to do with keeping America safe in a dangerous world, it is a closer call. Mr. McCain has deep knowledge and a longstanding commitment to promoting U.S. leadership and values.
But Mr. Obama, as anyone who reads his books can tell, also has a sophisticated understanding of the world and America's place in it. He, too, is committed to maintaining U.S. leadership and sticking up for democratic values, as his recent defense of tiny Georgia makes clear. We hope he would navigate between the amoral realism of some in his party and the counterproductive cocksureness of the current administration, especially in its first term. On most policies, such as the need to go after al-Qaeda, check Iran's nuclear ambitions and fight HIV/AIDS abroad, he differs little from Mr. Bush or Mr. McCain. But he promises defter diplomacy and greater commitment to allies. His team overstates the likelihood that either of those can produce dramatically better results, but both are certainly worth trying.
Mr. Obama's greatest deviation from current policy is also our biggest worry: his insistence on withdrawing U.S. combat troops from Iraq on a fixed timeline. Thanks to the surge that Mr. Obama opposed, it may be feasible to withdraw many troops during his first two years in office. But if it isn't -- and U.S. generals have warned that the hard-won gains of the past 18 months could be lost by a precipitous withdrawal -- we can only hope and assume that Mr. Obama would recognize the strategic importance of success in Iraq and adjust his plans.
We also can only hope that the alarming anti-trade rhetoric we have heard from Mr. Obama during the campaign would give way to the understanding of the benefits of trade reflected in his writings. A silver lining of the financial crisis may be the flexibility it gives Mr. Obama to override some of the interest groups and members of Congress in his own party who oppose open trade, as well as to pursue the entitlement reform that he surely understands is needed.
IT GIVES US no pleasure to oppose Mr. McCain. Over the years, he has been a force for principle and bipartisanship. He fought to recognize Vietnam, though some of his fellow ex-POWs vilified him for it. He stood up for humane immigration reform, though he knew Republican primary voters would punish him for it. He opposed torture and promoted campaign finance reform, a cause that Mr. Obama injured when he broke his promise to accept public financing in the general election campaign. Mr. McCain staked his career on finding a strategy for success in Iraq when just about everyone else in Washington was ready to give up. We think that he, too, might make a pretty good president.
But the stress of a campaign can reveal some essential truths, and the picture of Mr. McCain that emerged this year is far from reassuring. To pass his party's tax-cut litmus test, he jettisoned his commitment to balanced budgets. He hasn't come up with a coherent agenda, and at times he has seemed rash and impulsive. And we find no way to square his professed passion for America's national security with his choice of a running mate who, no matter what her other strengths, is not prepared to be commander in chief.
ANY PRESIDENTIAL vote is a gamble, and Mr. Obama's résumé is undoubtedly thin. We had hoped, throughout this long campaign, to see more evidence that Mr. Obama might stand up to Democratic orthodoxy and end, as he said in his announcement speech, "our chronic avoidance of tough decisions."
But Mr. Obama's temperament is unlike anything we've seen on the national stage in many years. He is deliberate but not indecisive; eloquent but a master of substance and detail; preternaturally confident but eager to hear opposing points of view. He has inspired millions of voters of diverse ages and races, no small thing in our often divided and cynical country. We think he is the right man for a perilous moment.
© 2008 The Washington Post Company
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Pre-debate political headlines/reading
THIS SUNDAY, THE NEW YORK TIMES MAGAZINE COVER STORY IS ABOUT OBAMA
NEW TIME/CNN BATTLEGROUND POLLS
TIME/CNN
Among likely voters:
COLORADO: Obama 51, McCain 47
FLORIDA: Obama 51, McCain 46
GEORGIA: McCain 53, Obama 45
MISSOURI: McCain 49, Obama 48
VIRGINIA: Obama 53, McCain 43
Dates conducted: Oct. 11-14. Error margin: 3.5 points.
The RNC is halting presidential ads in Wisconsin, Maine to turn its attention to traditionally Red states.
A rough Washington Post story suggests telecom companies did McCain a favor and provided cellphone coverage in Sedona.
Balz says its going to be tough for McCain tonight.
In Cobb County, Georgia, African-Americans wait in long lines to early vote.
Heavy early voting in Marion County, Indiana, too.
Nate Silver points to indicators that Obama is crushing among early voters.
Blumenthal re-examines the evidence and argues that polls are undercounting cell phone-using Democrats.
Russian energy officials visited Alaska last week and Palin didn't know about it.
James Taylor will campaign for Obama in North Carolina.
The Sacramento GOP removes content from its website that linked Obama to bin Laden.
Lynn Sweet finds the local Chicagoans who really launched Obama's career.
Lugar praises Obama.
Sometime Lieberman aide Dan Gerstein criticizes the McCain campaign.
NEW TIME/CNN BATTLEGROUND POLLS
TIME/CNN
Among likely voters:
COLORADO: Obama 51, McCain 47
FLORIDA: Obama 51, McCain 46
GEORGIA: McCain 53, Obama 45
MISSOURI: McCain 49, Obama 48
VIRGINIA: Obama 53, McCain 43
Dates conducted: Oct. 11-14. Error margin: 3.5 points.
The RNC is halting presidential ads in Wisconsin, Maine to turn its attention to traditionally Red states.
A rough Washington Post story suggests telecom companies did McCain a favor and provided cellphone coverage in Sedona.
Balz says its going to be tough for McCain tonight.
In Cobb County, Georgia, African-Americans wait in long lines to early vote.
Heavy early voting in Marion County, Indiana, too.
Nate Silver points to indicators that Obama is crushing among early voters.
Blumenthal re-examines the evidence and argues that polls are undercounting cell phone-using Democrats.
Russian energy officials visited Alaska last week and Palin didn't know about it.
James Taylor will campaign for Obama in North Carolina.
The Sacramento GOP removes content from its website that linked Obama to bin Laden.
Lynn Sweet finds the local Chicagoans who really launched Obama's career.
Lugar praises Obama.
Sometime Lieberman aide Dan Gerstein criticizes the McCain campaign.
PEW RESEARCH CENTER POLL
McCain Still Looking for Polls That Shows Obama (Only) +6
Wednesday, October 15th, 2008
Pew Research Center
Latest Pew poll, among registered voters:
Obama 50, McCain 40
Dates conducted: Oct. 9-12. Error margin: 3 points.
Wednesday, October 15th, 2008
Pew Research Center
Latest Pew poll, among registered voters:
Obama 50, McCain 40
Dates conducted: Oct. 9-12. Error margin: 3 points.
COLIN POWELL IS READY TO ENDORSE (?)
By Lawrence O'Donnell (Huffington Post)
Colin Powell Is Ready To Endorse
When Colin Powell turns off his TV after the final presidential debate, he will have learned everything he is going to learn about the candidates vying to succeed his former boss, George W. Bush. Powell has made it clear that he has been thinking about an endorsement for a long time but wanted to hear more from the candidates before making his choice. It now seems beyond doubt that Colin Powell will endorse Barack Obama and thereby hammer the final nail in the coffin of the Republican campaign to hold onto the White House.
The recent ugliness of the McCain-Palin rally audiences cannot be lost on Colin Powell. And Powell is not one to ignore a 14 point lead in a New York Times poll. But most important for Powell and the press will be his explicit rejection of the Bush-McCain approach to Iraq, Iran and the rest of the world.
Powell's endorsement will be perfectly timed to dominate a news cycle or two. It will give Obama the one thing he still needs more of--credibility as Commander-In-Chief. And Sarah Palin's speechwriters will be hard pressed to come up with a condescending quip about it.
Colin Powell Is Ready To Endorse
When Colin Powell turns off his TV after the final presidential debate, he will have learned everything he is going to learn about the candidates vying to succeed his former boss, George W. Bush. Powell has made it clear that he has been thinking about an endorsement for a long time but wanted to hear more from the candidates before making his choice. It now seems beyond doubt that Colin Powell will endorse Barack Obama and thereby hammer the final nail in the coffin of the Republican campaign to hold onto the White House.
The recent ugliness of the McCain-Palin rally audiences cannot be lost on Colin Powell. And Powell is not one to ignore a 14 point lead in a New York Times poll. But most important for Powell and the press will be his explicit rejection of the Bush-McCain approach to Iraq, Iran and the rest of the world.
Powell's endorsement will be perfectly timed to dominate a news cycle or two. It will give Obama the one thing he still needs more of--credibility as Commander-In-Chief. And Sarah Palin's speechwriters will be hard pressed to come up with a condescending quip about it.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
POLLS! WISH THE ELECTION WERE TOMORROW
POLL: OBAMA TAKES STRONG LEAD
NYTimes/CBS News
Obama 53, McCain 39
In early October: Obama 48, McCain 45.
Dates conducted: Oct. 10-13. Error margin: 3 points.
Another National Poll Shows Obama Lead
LA TIMES/BLOOMBERG
From LA Times/Bloomberg poll:
Obama 50, McCain 41
September poll: Obama 49, McCain 45.
Dates conducted: Oct. 10-13. Error margin: 3 points.
NYTimes/CBS News
Obama 53, McCain 39
In early October: Obama 48, McCain 45.
Dates conducted: Oct. 10-13. Error margin: 3 points.
Another National Poll Shows Obama Lead
LA TIMES/BLOOMBERG
From LA Times/Bloomberg poll:
Obama 50, McCain 41
September poll: Obama 49, McCain 45.
Dates conducted: Oct. 10-13. Error margin: 3 points.
QUESTIONS FOR BOTH CANDIDATES
A Few Debate Questions
By Richard Cohen
Tuesday, October 14, 2008; A17
With the final presidential debate scheduled for Wednesday and the previous two having revealed absolutely nothing about the candidates, I have taken it upon myself to suggest some questions for CBS's Bob Schieffer, who will do the moderating chores. I assure you that the candidates have not seen the questions in advance; nor, when the time comes, will they want to answer them. I flipped a coin and Barack Obama goes first.
Senator Obama, you are sooooooooo cool. Can you tell us, please, the last time you lost your temper and what about? You have two minutes.
Senator McCain, I'd like to ask you why you've attacked Senator Obama for associating with the former domestic terrorist Bill Ayers, even though you have befriended G. Gordon Liddy, who was jailed for what amounts to subversion of the Constitution. Liddy also once told his radio listeners to deal with agents of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms by shooting them -- "a head shot," he recommended. What's the difference between Liddy and Ayers? Take as much time as you want.
Senator Obama, did you ever tell Bill Ayers to his face that what he did was wrong?
Senator McCain, I have a question regarding Sarah Palin: How could you?
Senator Obama, in 2007, your former church and its then-minister honored the Reverend Louis Farrakhan, an anti-Semite. Why didn't you say something in protest? Have you ever heard the Latin dictum "Qui tacet consentire videtur," silence is consent?
Senator McCain, what lessons should we have learned from the Iraq war? Should it have been fought? Should we have stuck to Afghanistan? What are our limits as a great power?
Senator Obama, if your plan for troop withdrawal in Iraq had been adopted, the U.S. troops would now be almost out of the country. That being the case, what do you think we'd have there now? Civil war? A peaceful country? An Islamic republic next door in Jordan?
Senator McCain, do you ever wake up in the middle of the night and wonder if history will forgive you for Sarah Palin?
Senator Obama, do you ever wake up in the middle of night for anything?
Senator McCain, with the situation in Afghanistan worsening, why don't we switch our troops right away from Iraq, which didn't attack us, to the country from where Osama bin Laden and his Taliban supporters did?
Senator Obama, given the problems facing our country -- a worldwide financial crisis; a looming recession; the prospect of nukes in Iran and North Korea; and Pakistan, which already has nukes, coming apart -- isn't it reckless of you to think that, at your young age, with your limited experience, you can manage it all?
Senator McCain, virtually the same question to you. But in your case, given your age, isn't this all too much?
Senator Obama, have you ever been in therapy? If so, how did it make you feel?
Senator McCain, in May you allowed a restricted number of reporters to review your medical records for a limited amount of time. Some people think you're hiding something. Are you? If not, why not make all the records public?
Senator Obama, we all know that lobbyists are not the problem in Washington; it's the incessant need of politicians to raise campaign funds. Yet you broke your pledge to accept public financing for your campaign. By doing that, didn't you contribute to this problem? And a follow-up: If you broke your word on this, how can we be sure you won't break your word again?
Senator McCain, reportedly you have been told to avoid looking at Senator Obama during debates because he infuriates you and you could lose your temper. Is this because of Obama's age or his manner or something else entirely?
Senator Obama, what's a credit-default swap?
Senator McCain, can you explain short-selling?
Senator Obama, is Senator McCain right?
Senator McCain, you are 72 and have had skin cancer several times. Given that -- not to mention the usual exigencies of life -- how could you pick a running mate who is so dismally qualified for the presidency? And please, for the sake of your own reputation, not to mention your mortal soul, don't say anything about the Alaska National Guard.
Senator Obama and Senator McCain, you both favor NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia. Please tell us how you would explain to an American soldier why he or she would have to fight for either country. Please explain why defending Georgia is in our national interest.
Gentlemen, that's it for now. Over to you, Bob.
cohenr@washpost.com
© 2008 The Washington Post Company
by Google
By Richard Cohen
Tuesday, October 14, 2008; A17
With the final presidential debate scheduled for Wednesday and the previous two having revealed absolutely nothing about the candidates, I have taken it upon myself to suggest some questions for CBS's Bob Schieffer, who will do the moderating chores. I assure you that the candidates have not seen the questions in advance; nor, when the time comes, will they want to answer them. I flipped a coin and Barack Obama goes first.
Senator Obama, you are sooooooooo cool. Can you tell us, please, the last time you lost your temper and what about? You have two minutes.
Senator McCain, I'd like to ask you why you've attacked Senator Obama for associating with the former domestic terrorist Bill Ayers, even though you have befriended G. Gordon Liddy, who was jailed for what amounts to subversion of the Constitution. Liddy also once told his radio listeners to deal with agents of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms by shooting them -- "a head shot," he recommended. What's the difference between Liddy and Ayers? Take as much time as you want.
Senator Obama, did you ever tell Bill Ayers to his face that what he did was wrong?
Senator McCain, I have a question regarding Sarah Palin: How could you?
Senator Obama, in 2007, your former church and its then-minister honored the Reverend Louis Farrakhan, an anti-Semite. Why didn't you say something in protest? Have you ever heard the Latin dictum "Qui tacet consentire videtur," silence is consent?
Senator McCain, what lessons should we have learned from the Iraq war? Should it have been fought? Should we have stuck to Afghanistan? What are our limits as a great power?
Senator Obama, if your plan for troop withdrawal in Iraq had been adopted, the U.S. troops would now be almost out of the country. That being the case, what do you think we'd have there now? Civil war? A peaceful country? An Islamic republic next door in Jordan?
Senator McCain, do you ever wake up in the middle of the night and wonder if history will forgive you for Sarah Palin?
Senator Obama, do you ever wake up in the middle of night for anything?
Senator McCain, with the situation in Afghanistan worsening, why don't we switch our troops right away from Iraq, which didn't attack us, to the country from where Osama bin Laden and his Taliban supporters did?
Senator Obama, given the problems facing our country -- a worldwide financial crisis; a looming recession; the prospect of nukes in Iran and North Korea; and Pakistan, which already has nukes, coming apart -- isn't it reckless of you to think that, at your young age, with your limited experience, you can manage it all?
Senator McCain, virtually the same question to you. But in your case, given your age, isn't this all too much?
Senator Obama, have you ever been in therapy? If so, how did it make you feel?
Senator McCain, in May you allowed a restricted number of reporters to review your medical records for a limited amount of time. Some people think you're hiding something. Are you? If not, why not make all the records public?
Senator Obama, we all know that lobbyists are not the problem in Washington; it's the incessant need of politicians to raise campaign funds. Yet you broke your pledge to accept public financing for your campaign. By doing that, didn't you contribute to this problem? And a follow-up: If you broke your word on this, how can we be sure you won't break your word again?
Senator McCain, reportedly you have been told to avoid looking at Senator Obama during debates because he infuriates you and you could lose your temper. Is this because of Obama's age or his manner or something else entirely?
Senator Obama, what's a credit-default swap?
Senator McCain, can you explain short-selling?
Senator Obama, is Senator McCain right?
Senator McCain, you are 72 and have had skin cancer several times. Given that -- not to mention the usual exigencies of life -- how could you pick a running mate who is so dismally qualified for the presidency? And please, for the sake of your own reputation, not to mention your mortal soul, don't say anything about the Alaska National Guard.
Senator Obama and Senator McCain, you both favor NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia. Please tell us how you would explain to an American soldier why he or she would have to fight for either country. Please explain why defending Georgia is in our national interest.
Gentlemen, that's it for now. Over to you, Bob.
cohenr@washpost.com
© 2008 The Washington Post Company
by Google
Obama Holds Clear Lead in Four Battlegrounds
Obama Holds Clear Lead in Four Battlegrounds
From Quinnipiac/washingtonpost.com/Wall Street Journal polls:
Colorado: Obama 52, McCain 43
Michigan: Obama 54, McCain 38
Minnesota: Obama 51, McCain 40
Wisconsin: Obama 54, McCain 37
Dates conducted: Oct. 8-12. Error margin: Ranges 2.8-3.1 points.
From Quinnipiac/washingtonpost.com/Wall Street Journal polls:
Colorado: Obama 52, McCain 43
Michigan: Obama 54, McCain 38
Minnesota: Obama 51, McCain 40
Wisconsin: Obama 54, McCain 37
Dates conducted: Oct. 8-12. Error margin: Ranges 2.8-3.1 points.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
History Suggests McCain Faces an Uphill Battle
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October 13, 2008
History Suggests McCain Faces an Uphill Battle
By JOHN HARWOOD
Has Senator John McCain fallen too far behind, too late in the presidential campaign, to overtake Senator Barack Obama?
That is the question facing strategists in both parties three weeks before Election Day. History suggests that the answer is probably so.
Mr. Obama has already made history as the first African-American to become a major-party nominee for president. But his breakthrough represents a wild card that could yield election returns at odds with poll results. Beyond that, Mr. McCain’s hopes rest on capturing the support of undecided voters, as well as shaking loose some voters who support his Democratic rival.
No one, including Mr. Obama’s advisers, says such a turnaround in Mr. McCain’s favor is impossible. But the magnitude of Mr. McCain’s task may leave him depending on a misstep by Mr. Obama or a national security crisis rather than on what he can achieve through speeches, advertising or a winning performance in the final debate on Wednesday.
“At this point,” said Matthew Dowd, a strategist for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, “the campaign is totally out of John McCain’s hands.”
A Gap Tough to Close
In the latest Gallup tracking poll, Mr. Obama leads Mr. McCain 50 percent to 43 percent among registered voters. Mr. McCain’s deficit in that survey has remained seven percentage points or more for most of the last two weeks.
Since Gallup began presidential polling in 1936, only one candidate has overcome a deficit that large, and this late, to win the White House: Ronald Reagan, who trailed President Jimmy Carter 47 percent to 39 percent in a survey completed on Oct. 26, 1980.
Yet Mr. Carter, like Mr. McCain today, represented the party holding the White House in bad times. After Mr. Reagan successfully presented himself as an alternative to Mr. Carter in their lone debate, held on the late date of Oct. 28, he surged ahead. After two debates, Mr. Obama holds a lead that is approaching Mr. Reagan’s eventual margin of victory.
In 1968, Vice President Hubert H. Humphrey all but erased a 12-point early-October deficit before losing narrowly to Richard M. Nixon. In 2000, Vice President Al Gore wiped out a seven-point deficit in the final 10 days of the election, winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College to Mr. Bush.
But since polling began, the pattern is that swings in opinion get smaller as Election Day approaches and voters gather more information. As American politics have grown more polarized, the opportunity for large swings has become smaller still.
Four years ago, Senator John Kerry trailed Mr. Bush slightly in the homestretch. A near-even split on Election Day among the few remaining undecided voters sealed Mr. Kerry’s defeat.
“There appears to be more flex in the current electorate than in 2004, but less than in 2000,” said Richard Johnston, research director of the National Annenberg Election Survey, at the University of Pennsylvania.
Mr. McCain’s strategists acknowledge that for a realistic chance to win the election through battleground states, Mr. McCain must reduce Mr. Obama’s advantage in the national popular vote to no more than three or four percentage points.
Since 1948, front-running candidates have typically preserved three-fourths of their October leads, said Larry M. Bartels, a political scientist at Princeton. Applying statistical theory to current polls, he pegged Mr. Obama’s chance of winning the popular vote at “a little over 90 percent.”
Mr. Bartels noted three factors that might skew the results. Two of them, a potential surge in voter turnout and the tendency of undecided voters to punish the party holding the White House during an economic downturn, appear to favor Mr. Obama. The third, racial resistance among white voters, favors Mr. McCain.
Focus on White Voters
Ahead in once-reliably red states like Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia, Mr. Obama need not win any new voters. If he holds his 50 percent share in Gallup’s survey, and third-party candidates like Bob Barr and Ralph Nader draw 3 percent collectively, Mr. McCain can pull no closer than 47 percent.
The McCain campaign sees scant opportunity to erode Mr. Obama’s near-monolithic support among blacks and his two-to-one edge among Hispanics. But Mr. McCain’s strategists think that one in five white voters — roughly 15 percent of the electorate — remains open to persuasion.
The campaign says that those voters tend to be younger, single, less educated and female, and that they also include senior citizens distressed over sagging investments. Those voters are the target audience for Mr. McCain’s recent attacks on Mr. Obama’s ties to William Ayers, a founder of the Weather Underground.
If one-third of those voters shift allegiance from Mr. Obama to Mr. McCain, they will produce a 10-percentage-point swing, wiping out Mr. Obama’s lead. Mr. Obama’s strategists say voter preferences have hardened enough to make that difficult.
Mr. McCain’s assessment of whether it is possible may influence the zeal of his campaign’s efforts to assail Mr. Obama’s character. Facing heavy criticism, Mr. McCain late last week turned ambivalent.
October 13, 2008
History Suggests McCain Faces an Uphill Battle
By JOHN HARWOOD
Has Senator John McCain fallen too far behind, too late in the presidential campaign, to overtake Senator Barack Obama?
That is the question facing strategists in both parties three weeks before Election Day. History suggests that the answer is probably so.
Mr. Obama has already made history as the first African-American to become a major-party nominee for president. But his breakthrough represents a wild card that could yield election returns at odds with poll results. Beyond that, Mr. McCain’s hopes rest on capturing the support of undecided voters, as well as shaking loose some voters who support his Democratic rival.
No one, including Mr. Obama’s advisers, says such a turnaround in Mr. McCain’s favor is impossible. But the magnitude of Mr. McCain’s task may leave him depending on a misstep by Mr. Obama or a national security crisis rather than on what he can achieve through speeches, advertising or a winning performance in the final debate on Wednesday.
“At this point,” said Matthew Dowd, a strategist for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, “the campaign is totally out of John McCain’s hands.”
A Gap Tough to Close
In the latest Gallup tracking poll, Mr. Obama leads Mr. McCain 50 percent to 43 percent among registered voters. Mr. McCain’s deficit in that survey has remained seven percentage points or more for most of the last two weeks.
Since Gallup began presidential polling in 1936, only one candidate has overcome a deficit that large, and this late, to win the White House: Ronald Reagan, who trailed President Jimmy Carter 47 percent to 39 percent in a survey completed on Oct. 26, 1980.
Yet Mr. Carter, like Mr. McCain today, represented the party holding the White House in bad times. After Mr. Reagan successfully presented himself as an alternative to Mr. Carter in their lone debate, held on the late date of Oct. 28, he surged ahead. After two debates, Mr. Obama holds a lead that is approaching Mr. Reagan’s eventual margin of victory.
In 1968, Vice President Hubert H. Humphrey all but erased a 12-point early-October deficit before losing narrowly to Richard M. Nixon. In 2000, Vice President Al Gore wiped out a seven-point deficit in the final 10 days of the election, winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College to Mr. Bush.
But since polling began, the pattern is that swings in opinion get smaller as Election Day approaches and voters gather more information. As American politics have grown more polarized, the opportunity for large swings has become smaller still.
Four years ago, Senator John Kerry trailed Mr. Bush slightly in the homestretch. A near-even split on Election Day among the few remaining undecided voters sealed Mr. Kerry’s defeat.
“There appears to be more flex in the current electorate than in 2004, but less than in 2000,” said Richard Johnston, research director of the National Annenberg Election Survey, at the University of Pennsylvania.
Mr. McCain’s strategists acknowledge that for a realistic chance to win the election through battleground states, Mr. McCain must reduce Mr. Obama’s advantage in the national popular vote to no more than three or four percentage points.
Since 1948, front-running candidates have typically preserved three-fourths of their October leads, said Larry M. Bartels, a political scientist at Princeton. Applying statistical theory to current polls, he pegged Mr. Obama’s chance of winning the popular vote at “a little over 90 percent.”
Mr. Bartels noted three factors that might skew the results. Two of them, a potential surge in voter turnout and the tendency of undecided voters to punish the party holding the White House during an economic downturn, appear to favor Mr. Obama. The third, racial resistance among white voters, favors Mr. McCain.
Focus on White Voters
Ahead in once-reliably red states like Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia, Mr. Obama need not win any new voters. If he holds his 50 percent share in Gallup’s survey, and third-party candidates like Bob Barr and Ralph Nader draw 3 percent collectively, Mr. McCain can pull no closer than 47 percent.
The McCain campaign sees scant opportunity to erode Mr. Obama’s near-monolithic support among blacks and his two-to-one edge among Hispanics. But Mr. McCain’s strategists think that one in five white voters — roughly 15 percent of the electorate — remains open to persuasion.
The campaign says that those voters tend to be younger, single, less educated and female, and that they also include senior citizens distressed over sagging investments. Those voters are the target audience for Mr. McCain’s recent attacks on Mr. Obama’s ties to William Ayers, a founder of the Weather Underground.
If one-third of those voters shift allegiance from Mr. Obama to Mr. McCain, they will produce a 10-percentage-point swing, wiping out Mr. Obama’s lead. Mr. Obama’s strategists say voter preferences have hardened enough to make that difficult.
Mr. McCain’s assessment of whether it is possible may influence the zeal of his campaign’s efforts to assail Mr. Obama’s character. Facing heavy criticism, Mr. McCain late last week turned ambivalent.
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