SIX EARLY STATES TO WATCH

Viewers Guide to Election Night: Six Early States to Watch
November 03, 2008 8:39 AM

Here are the six states to watch between 7pm and 8pm tomorrow night:

Virginia and Indiana after the last polls close at 7pm, Ohio and North Carolina after 7:30pm, and then Pennsylvania and Florida after 8pm.

These are the canaries in the coal mine.

McCain campaign manager Rick Davis conceded on "This Week" that John McCain has to win five out of six of these states to have a viable path to the presidency.

He could get there by holding all of the Bush states -- Indiana, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina -- and losing Pennsylvania, and then Obama sacrificing Iowa.

But he will then need to secure Nevada and Colorado and all the rest of the Bush states later in the evening.

That puts him at 270.

Or, if McCain manages a long shot win in Pennsylvania, his possibilities open up.

He could then lose Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado, and still win. Or, he could lose Indiana in that scenario and still win.

But if in these early states Obama holds on to Pennsylvania and wins just one more -- any of the other five -- only a John McCain miracle later in the evening can deny Obama the White House.

--George Stephanopoulos

Polls--the day before

LATEST BATTLEGROUND NUMBERS
Monday, November 3rd, 2008



From Quinnipiac University poll:

FLORIDA: Obama 47, McCain 45
OHIO: Obama 50, McCain 43
PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 52, McCain 42
Dates conducted: Oct. 27-Nov. 2. Error margin: 2.3-2.5 points.

From WSJ/NBC News numbers:

Obama 51, McCain 43


Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama is Where He Needs To Be, McCain is Not

Obama 50, McCain 43 Released: November 03, 2008